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About Medford mail tribune. (Medford, Or.) 1909-1989 | View Entire Issue (Dec. 22, 1960)
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22, 1960 MEDFORD MAIL TRIBUNE, MEDFORD. ORE. Most Economists Washington - IUPII - Business prospects lor 1961 are the least bullish in three years. With a further decline in manufacturing forecast for the first part of the New Year, no general upward trend in business is likely before sum mer. Most government and pri vate economists think 1961 will see an advance over 1960. But it will be a modest one and probably bunched in the last four or five months of the year. ; ' . That would mean a further rise in unemployment, which has been creeping up for six months and now is fairly high. By the end of winter a jobless total approaching 6 million is possible. Well above 5 million is a certainty. A happier consequence, 'of the mild business downturn -which actually began last summer - might be moderate price shading on manufactur ed consumer goods. But steel industry sources are talking about, the inevitability of a hike in selected steel prices. In services - where more and more consumer dollars are spent - economists see no break in the upward price trend. Similar Situation in its gross outlines the cur rent business situation is similar lo that of three years ago: A downturn which began in the summer is likely lo persist Into the spring. That was the pattern of the 1957 58 recession. Smart Softies Warm, pretty, face-flattering! Go off lo work or on a date in Ihcse smart softies.. Each has a single crochet foundation, trimmed with strands of yarn, tacked at in tervals. Pattern 7367: crochet directions for knitting wor sted. Send Thirly-five cents (in coins) for this pattern - add 10 cents for each pattern for first-class mailing. Send to Medford Mail Tribune, House hold Arts Dept., P., O. Box 168, Old Chelsea Station, New York 11, N. Y. Print plainly NAME, ADDRESS, PAT TERN NUMBER. JUST OUT! Our 1961 Nee dlecraft Book. Over 125 de signs for home furnishings for fashions - knit, crochet, embroider, weave, sew, quill - toys,, gifts, bazaar items. FREE - six designs for pop ular veil caps. Quick - send 25 cenls today. Shakespeare wrote "Romeo and Juliet" in 1595. 'K' 7367 and PHONOGRAPHS All Types Records Singles and Albums Phonos from $19.95 to Hi-Fi Consoles TERMS ON ALL J&llfl PHONO'S AVi IF DESIRED I MM There is however one very impor tant difference this year: The slump is milder -much. Even if you don't study the figures you can tell that from the fact that economists are divided about whether the present decline is deep enough to merit the term "recession." The most comprehensive measure of how business is doing is Gross National Prod uct (GNP for short). It in cludes spending for all goods and services by everybody -consumers, business, govern ment, foreigners. Latest available GNP fig ures are: (Billion, at yearly rale) 1st quarter 1960 $501.3 2nd quarter 1960 $505.0 (all-time high) 3rd quarter 1960 $503.5 Government economists don't know whether the final three months of 1960 will show an improvement or a dip in GNP. Either way, they say, it will be only a small change from the third quar ter. As for the first half of 1961, the experts are betting on a decline - but a small one. A pessimist suggests GNP may nil a low of $490 billion - a drop of about 2Vz'Per cent A more cautiously optimistic Federal Reserve expert thinks "it won'l go much below $500 billion." Inventories are tne biggest single thing holding business down. In steel and other lac lory goods stockpiles are be ing worked off. Economists expect inventory liquidation will continue for some months. The firm "living off the shelf" is buying less from its suppliers. So production is crimped and workers are laid off. Economists expect that by summer businessmen will find they have trimmed stocks of goods to a bare minimum and must step up new factory orders. Prevailing expert sentiment is that the narrow dip in con sumer expenditures of last summer was temporary and that the long - term uptrend will' continue. "If the seasonal slowdown in January and 1 February doesn't shake people too much we may come through fine in the spring," comment ed a Commerce Department economist. "So far," he added, its been a very mud re cession." High Jobless Levels What disturbs government officials most in that the high jobless levels anticipated for January and February may have spillover effects psy chologically and dollar-wise. Labor Department experts say that the usual winter rise in unemployment will boost Ihe number out of work above 5 million - and possibly close to 6 million. With that many people un employed, retail sales may slip. Other people with jobs may start to worry. If their concern translates into more thrift and less spending, the slump may be self-aggrava-llng. Hopefully, the reopen ing of outdoor jobs in March and April and a brisk start to Ihe home building season will dispell some of Ihe winter gloom, re-employ some of the laid off and create jobs for some of the 1.25 million new Job-scekcrs coming into the 1961 labor market. Home building sagged this year to about 1,300,000 starts, probably because 1959's 1, 531,000 non-farm starts was artificially stimulated by gov ernment anti-recession actions in 1958. For 1961 optimists see 1,325,000 housing starts. More restrained forecasts are for an even 1,300,000. There is widespread agree ment that home buyers will have less difficulty gelling YOUR MEDFORD, OPEN NITES 'TIL 9 P.M. "The Store of a Thousand Thoughtful Gifts" P redict a mortgage loans, and may even enjoy some small decline in borrowing costs. The Federal Reserve has supplied banks with ,a generous amount of loan reserves. Under the ad ministration of Presi dent- Wr'-t, k i mm fc. ' JML ' few a - 1 - . TREE INSPECTED Pine needles on a Christmas tree decorating the monkey hotise at Chicago's Lincoln Park zoo throw ..this chimpanzee, Keo, for a loss. Airline Pilots Head Joins in Queseda Attack Washington, -IUPII- The head of the Air Line Pilots associa tion joined a mounting attack on federal aviation chief El- wood R. Qucsada Wednesday for announcing that one of the planes in the airliner collision over New York was 11 miles off course. The latest anti - Quesada blasl came from ALPA Presi dent Clarence N. Sayen, who called Ihe I'AA chief's prelim inary statements on the crash "an irresponsible abuse of public office." "Certain tentative facts have emerged but have not been verified in relation to other facts and the over-all problem," Sayen said in statement. "To issue state ments at this time which even infer that certain events led lo this accident is sheer specu lation." Indicts Innocents Sayen said any group hav ing a statutory responsibil ity" must refrain from spec ulation and "to do otherwise is lo mislead the public and induct innocent parties." He added that the Federal Avia tion Agency itself "is one of the parties involved in this ac cident because FAA is sponsible for the nation's air traffic control system. Qucsada also was criticized by United Air Lines President W. A. Patterson, Capt. John McDonald, veteran accident investigator for ALPA, the pilots' union, and in effect by Civil Aeronautics Board mem ber G. Joseph Minetti who will direct the government in quiry into the disaster. LONGEST RIVER The Loire is the longest river in France. A CHARGE PLATE STORE OREGON Modest 1961 Advance Over elect John Kennedy is may not be so quick to tighten up once businessistarts to expand. Highway and school build ing construction .volume is expected to '. rise next year; Reversing the narrow decline got the best of the tree. The his liking. .. . 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' PLUS 50 SD STAMPS . g' I ' Jl."l"l"''' n ' tC Wt ' Merry Christmas Everyone ' ' VJ' :vx : i ' Rjpe Olives " ' I Fresh, Firm f: j. fV7 ffl PLUS 50 STAMPS ll f ( fl M k V A 1AMAWAS:- 1 0: fljpSi 1 Onions 3 1 5 1iHed 0lim : CELERY H 19:pEs fW of 1960, total construction outlays may hit a record $57 billion or more. In steel, the "bust" of 1960, no improvement is seen for 1961. An industry spokesman, .lamely calling 1960 the Indus- him. so he had to inspect. the prickly needles were not to ,. (UPI Telephotb) 1 mmmmr . SPECIALS !- try's sixth best year on record, estimated output at 99.3 mil lion net tons and i forecast 1961 production at 95-100 million net tons. V Second Best Year Auto men say 1960 was their second best year ever with sales of 6.7 million do mestic and foreign cars .- a bit under the bullish 7 mil lion forecast a year ago. 'In 1961 they see sales of 6.5' mil lion units, a decline of about 200,000, half of it in imports. It might be remembered that auto industry forecasts usual ly are too optimistic. Investment plans of busi ness indicate the economy will get no ..help, from that sector. A McGraw-Hill; survey pro jects a 3 per cent decline in outlays for expansion and modernization dropping ex penditures down to $35 bil lion. Federal economists will be reliever if the cut is that shallow. . . McGraw-Hill called the pro jected 1961 outlays "unexpect edly strong" and explained them in this way: "Capacity may be in excess and sales expectations modest, but com panies are evidently spurred to continued investment in plant and equipment by (1) the need to cut costs in order to meet the competition both at home and abroad and (2) kidney 'n meat liver 'n meat chicken meaty mix chopped fish 5 MossVCAT FOODS ; 1 -iar " ti rmt a 1960 Business the' marketing opportunities opened Tip by the high level of spending on research and product development. Exports, up smartly in I960, ran about $4 biljion ahead, of imports. . It seems unlikely that, this favorable tradeisurplus can be fattened in 1961. .Indeed, government officials are concerned lest it shrink, thereby adding to the deficit in the country's bal ance ! pf international pay ments. - . Government spending will be up' at all levels in 1961, probably the most clear-cut upward factor in the entire economic picture. For the calijiidar year, Business Week magazine foresees a gain of $6.5' billion to a new peak level of $144 billion. But, the magazine added, "the amount of economic stimulation that will be realized from this in crease. is open to question." Similar rises occurred in 1959 and,1960. Hence the 1961 in crease should not be seen as a new economic force. . It -is -a truism to say that ultimately,, tjow business does depends '. on the' consumer,. Personal c o h sumption e x -penditures account for nearly two-thirds of total spending and influence heavily business inventory and investment de cisions.. ' " ' . , Barring a sizable economic depression, consumer spend ing will be higher in 1961. Statistics show that even in recessions people' continue to buy more non-durable goods, especially food, and to spend more for services (partially a result of inflation). What really counts for in dustrial activity and unem ployment is the retail sales of hard goods - autos, refriger ators, washing machines, dry ers and furniture. These are the "big ticket" items which can nften be "made to do" for another year if consumers are uneasy. These are the items which mean production of Don't Guess- One Year National Warranty Terms To Suit Ask About Our Rental Purchase Plan! Other Popular Makes Available Office Stationery & Supply Co. 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