Medford mail tribune. (Medford, Or.) 1909-1989, September 20, 1962, Image 13

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Medford mail tribune., September 20, 1962, Image 13

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Newspaper Page TextMEDFORD MAIL TRIBUNE. MEDFOBD. OREGON THURSDAY. SEPTEMBER 20, 19S2 Your Money's III iL i worm By SYLVIA PORTER W Coprrifht, HaN Syndicate, lnc .DHOULD THE PRESIDENT MAKE ECONOMIC FORECASTS? It President Kennedy justified in "cloaking with the au thority of hli office" the economic forecasts of his Council of Economic Advisers and thereby giving ut the impression that "government officials actually know how much our economy will be able to produce and how many jobs there win be under different sets of conditions? Could he. in fact, be "complicating the task of governmental policy" by making ''statistical pronouncements" which "may generate a false aense of security among people at the cost of excessive dis appointment later"? "Yes" would be the answer to both questions by Dr. Arthur F. Burns, who was chairman of the Economic Ad . visers Council during President Eisenhower's Administration and who now Is president of the world-respected National feureau of Economic Research for the quotes in my ques tions are his. " This is of particular urgency right now and the questions have become highly controversial because the over-optimistic forecasts made by the CEA at the start of 1962 and submitted by Kennedy to Congress in his January Economic Report Undoubtedly have contributed to "excessive disappointment" In the economy's performance this year. We are a full SIS billion under the SS70 billion econ , omy Kennedy predicted we would be by now. We have ' hardly made the "giant stride toward a fully employed , economy" that he declared we would make in 1962. We certainly have not achieved the balanced budget he fore ,' cast. Yet,' throughout 1962, we have been smashing eco nomic records left and right, a fact which does suggest - that our "disappoinment" is "excessive" and could be due largely to our exaggerated expectations. So U Burns right in say "yes" to both questions? With all deference to this superbly informed economist, J would say Burns is not right for two plain reasons: (1) The President cannot avoid making economic fore casts nor can his Council of Economic Advisers, even if they wanted to. They are directed by law by the Employment :Act of 1946 to send economic reports to Congress at the start of each regular session, and the act specifically requires ihat the President set forth "the levels of employment, pro duction and purchasing power obtaining in the U. S. and Such levels needed to carry out the policy" of the Employ ment Act. (2) If they tried to avoid making the forecasts public, their estimates would leak out anyway, and as they leaked there would be distortions, errors and misunderstandings which would befuddle the picture much more than it is under present conditions. Of course, it is impossible to formulate any economic policy without making projections. Burns himself flatly says "policy-making without forecasting Is unthinkable." For in stance, no budget could be put together without an estimate of the federal government's probable Income in the year ahead and his estimate necessitates forecasts on profits, pay-checks, sales. In short, just making up the budget in volves detailed predictions about the economy, and the same goes for every other policy decision in the economic field. The controversy is over keeping the estimates secret, but again, I contend this also would be impossible, even if it were the appropriate thing to do. Thousands of au thorities in government and in private affairs are working on the statistics which go Into the economic .forecasts of the President and his Cabinet members. Reporters in my field check daily with many of these authorities to find out the latest statistics and inquire about their implications. About all that would be accomplished if we had to play hide-and-seek on this is that we would be misled and mis informed and we would pass on our misinformation to you. What is needed is not more secrecy but more accurate statistics and more accurate interpretation of them. Eco nomics is still far from the status of an exact science. Con sidering how primitive are many of our tools and how few tools we have, it is a wonder that our economic forecasts are as good as they are. Incidentally, making the 1962 forecasts will seem akin to a picnic when the President's advisers get to the job of writing the 1963 report. At least at the start of 1962 it was obvious that the advance was going to continue. But now the expansion is getting old, showing clear signs of getting tired and the White House economists will have to assume the responsibility of saying so out loud. Anguish of Kennedy Family on Decision For Com mi fa I Told B New York-lPli-Mrs. Eunice Kennedy Shriver, sister of the President, has publicly dis closed the anguish the Ken nedy family faced when one of its members had to be placed in a mental institution. Mrs. Shriver, wife of Peace Corps Director R. Sargent Shriver, toid the slory of the President's mentally retarded sister, Rosemary, in the cur rent issue of the Saturday Eve ning Post. Rosemary Kennedy, now 43, has been in the institution since 1942 after the family re turned to the United States from London, where Joseph P. Kennedy, father of the family, had served as U ambassador. ' Mrs. Shriver, fifth of nine : Kennedy children, wrote: "For a long time my family I believed that all of us work- ing together could provide my I sister with a happy life in our 1 midst. Rosemary was not mak- ' inp nrnro hut -;tmn in. stead to be going backward. At 22 she was becoming ln- VIENNA WOODS New York -il'PU- Austria Is Europe's second largest ex porter of lumber, surpassed only by Sweden, according to recent survey. Austria's an nual lumber exports are about 110 million cubic feet. I creasingly irritable and diffi-i cult. Her memory and concen tration and judgment were de clining. "My mother took Rosemary Smart Shopper Knows Good Bargain Buys Albany, N. Y. -ATI'- You are I sophisticated shopper if the word bargain means more to you than just a discounted price tag, the New York state commerce department reports. You also are aware that what may be a bargain to your neighbor is not neces sarily a bargain for you and know, too if you don't need it, it's not a bargain. to psychologists and to dozens "The public and the govern-! anyone to discuss this prob of doctors. All of them said . mcnts they support are slow- lem in terms of hope. But the her condition would not get ly awakening to the needs of j weary fatalism of those days better and that she would be I the retarded," she said. "Yet , 'S no longer justified." far happier in an institution i even today less is being done My mother found an ex- for them at the community level than for any other af flicted group. "Twenty years ago, when my sister entered an institu tion, it was most unusual for cellent Catholic institution that specialized in the care of retarded children and adults. Rosemary is there now, living with others of her capacity." In 1946 the Kennedy family ' set up a foundation devoted to helping the mentally retarded. It was the first of its kind in the United States. Mrs. Shriv er urged that community pro grams be formed to deal with the problem of mental retardation. TECHNOCRACY, Inc. Preientt Reo McCailin of San Francilco Sept. 20, 8 P.M. Fair Ground! Pavilion Grants Pan FOLGER'S COFFEE 1 lb 69c 2 lbs. 1.37 6-oz. Instant . 89c 10-oz. Instant 1.39 ELK CITY MKT. Medford, Ore. FlYING A HEATING OIL Serviceman for repair & service of oil heat units. Th fifty Grtn Stamps jf bills paid by 10th of month. WOOD Hardwood & Body Fir NAUMES EQUIPMENT & FUEL 2840 So. .Pacific Hwy. 772-6223 Sisters Flee From Custody of Overly Protective Father : Los Angeles - IUPU - Two teen-aged girls, held prisoner In their home since February by an overly protective fath er, smashed a window to gain freedom. Police said the father, Eu gene Austin, 38. a consulting engineer, told them he kept the girls locked up to keep track of them while he work ed. "The walls just sort of closed in on me," said one of the girls, Bonnie, 16. "My dad told us that in case of an emergency or a fire to smash a window. Well, I just figured it was an emergency and I broke out." - Bonnie had been taking cor respondence courses. She and her sister, Karen, were locked up Feb. 8. Karen, 15, was per mitted to return to school at the start of the current semes ter, police said. One officer said the girls told them they had even been locked up separately at times in their tract home in the Mission Hills District. No charges were filed against the father. Officers said he might be charged later. Both girls were taken to the McLaren Hall Juvenile Fa cility. The girls told officers they had appealed to friends for help, but their pleas went un answered. This was when they decided to make a break for freedom, police reported. The pretty sisters were lock ed up Feb. 8 after they went to a friend's home while their father was working Officers said the Austin home was immaculate. "There wasn't a speck of dull any where." Bonnie and Karen told of ficers their father had not mistreated them and often took them shopping Friends told officers the girls had slipped them notes telling of their plight and pleading for help, but stid they did not want to interfere. Officers said all the doors in the Austin home had double locks and padlocks were placed atop each window. A sliding glass door was adjust ed enough to permit the family cat to enter and leave. One officers said that Aus tin, an avid Bible reader, had even placed plastic coverings over the windows and painted them black so nobody could look in on the girls. One sister told police their twice divorced father fre quently dropped in on them at odd hours to check up on them. "I didn't have many friends," Bonnie told police, "but I asked them to help us. They were afraid of my dad. "Why did he keep us locked up? Mistrust, 1 guess. We went next door and he didn't want us to. He might have heard rumors that we were seeing boys and he probably believed those rumors. "When we asked him how long we would be locked up he told us that it would be until he could trust us," she said. "It wasn't so bad at first because I thought it would Just be until I was 18. but he indicated tht I wouldn't get out until I was 21," Bonnie added. "The walls just sort of closed In on me. My dad 'old us that in case of an emer gency or a fire to smash a window. Well. I just figured it was an emergency and I broke out." THE DANMOORE HOTEL 1217 SW. Mormon St. PORTLAND. OREGON All transient tjuctrs. All thoie wh eomt, rtturn. Rafts not hioh. not ow. Fret garagt, TV's and radios fttputation tot ctoanlintts. 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