MEDFORD MAIL TRIBUNE. MEDFOBD. OREGON
THURSDAY. SEPTEMBER 20, 19S2
Your Money's
III iL
i worm
By SYLVIA PORTER W
Coprrifht, HaN Syndicate, lnc
.DHOULD THE PRESIDENT MAKE ECONOMIC
FORECASTS?
It President Kennedy justified in "cloaking with the au
thority of hli office" the economic forecasts of his Council
of Economic Advisers and thereby giving ut the impression
that "government officials actually know how much our
economy will be able to produce and how many jobs there
win be under different sets of conditions? Could he. in fact,
be "complicating the task of governmental policy" by making
''statistical pronouncements" which "may generate a false
aense of security among people at the cost of excessive dis
appointment later"?
"Yes" would be the answer to both questions by Dr.
Arthur F. Burns, who was chairman of the Economic Ad
. visers Council during President Eisenhower's Administration
and who now Is president of the world-respected National
feureau of Economic Research for the quotes in my ques
tions are his.
" This is of particular urgency right now and the questions
have become highly controversial because the over-optimistic
forecasts made by the CEA at the start of 1962 and submitted
by Kennedy to Congress in his January Economic Report
Undoubtedly have contributed to "excessive disappointment"
In the economy's performance this year.
We are a full SIS billion under the SS70 billion econ
, omy Kennedy predicted we would be by now. We have
' hardly made the "giant stride toward a fully employed
, economy" that he declared we would make in 1962. We
certainly have not achieved the balanced budget he fore
,' cast. Yet,' throughout 1962, we have been smashing eco
nomic records left and right, a fact which does suggest
- that our "disappoinment" is "excessive" and could be due
largely to our exaggerated expectations.
So U Burns right in say "yes" to both questions?
With all deference to this superbly informed economist,
J would say Burns is not right for two plain reasons:
(1) The President cannot avoid making economic fore
casts nor can his Council of Economic Advisers, even if they
wanted to. They are directed by law by the Employment
:Act of 1946 to send economic reports to Congress at the
start of each regular session, and the act specifically requires
ihat the President set forth "the levels of employment, pro
duction and purchasing power obtaining in the U. S. and
Such levels needed to carry out the policy" of the Employ
ment Act.
(2) If they tried to avoid making the forecasts public,
their estimates would leak out anyway, and as they leaked
there would be distortions, errors and misunderstandings
which would befuddle the picture much more than it is
under present conditions.
Of course, it is impossible to formulate any economic
policy without making projections. Burns himself flatly says
"policy-making without forecasting Is unthinkable." For in
stance, no budget could be put together without an estimate
of the federal government's probable Income in the year
ahead and his estimate necessitates forecasts on profits,
pay-checks, sales. In short, just making up the budget in
volves detailed predictions about the economy, and the same
goes for every other policy decision in the economic field.
The controversy is over keeping the estimates secret,
but again, I contend this also would be impossible, even
if it were the appropriate thing to do. Thousands of au
thorities in government and in private affairs are working
on the statistics which go Into the economic .forecasts of
the President and his Cabinet members. Reporters in my
field check daily with many of these authorities to find
out the latest statistics and inquire about their implications.
About all that would be accomplished if we had to play
hide-and-seek on this is that we would be misled and mis
informed and we would pass on our misinformation to you.
What is needed is not more secrecy but more accurate
statistics and more accurate interpretation of them. Eco
nomics is still far from the status of an exact science. Con
sidering how primitive are many of our tools and how few
tools we have, it is a wonder that our economic forecasts are
as good as they are.
Incidentally, making the 1962 forecasts will seem akin
to a picnic when the President's advisers get to the job of
writing the 1963 report. At least at the start of 1962 it was
obvious that the advance was going to continue. But now the
expansion is getting old, showing clear signs of getting tired
and the White House economists will have to assume the
responsibility of saying so out loud.
Anguish of Kennedy Family on Decision For Com mi fa I Told
B
New York-lPli-Mrs. Eunice
Kennedy Shriver, sister of
the President, has publicly dis
closed the anguish the Ken
nedy family faced when one
of its members had to be
placed in a mental institution.
Mrs. Shriver, wife of Peace
Corps Director R. Sargent
Shriver, toid the slory of the
President's mentally retarded
sister, Rosemary, in the cur
rent issue of the Saturday Eve
ning Post.
Rosemary Kennedy, now 43,
has been in the institution
since 1942 after the family re
turned to the United States
from London, where Joseph
P. Kennedy, father of the
family, had served as U
ambassador.
' Mrs. Shriver, fifth of nine
: Kennedy children, wrote:
"For a long time my family
I believed that all of us work-
ing together could provide my
I sister with a happy life in our
1 midst. Rosemary was not mak-
' inp nrnro hut -;tmn in.
stead to be going backward.
At 22 she was becoming ln-
VIENNA WOODS
New York -il'PU- Austria Is
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porter of lumber, surpassed
only by Sweden, according to
recent survey. Austria's an
nual lumber exports are about
110 million cubic feet.
I creasingly irritable and diffi-i
cult. Her memory and concen
tration and judgment were de
clining. "My mother took Rosemary
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to psychologists and to dozens "The public and the govern-! anyone to discuss this prob
of doctors. All of them said . mcnts they support are slow- lem in terms of hope. But the
her condition would not get ly awakening to the needs of j weary fatalism of those days
better and that she would be I the retarded," she said. "Yet , 'S no longer justified."
far happier in an institution i even today less is being done
My mother found an ex- for them at the community
level than for any other af
flicted group.
"Twenty years ago, when
my sister entered an institu
tion, it was most unusual for
cellent Catholic institution
that specialized in the care of
retarded children and adults.
Rosemary is there now, living
with others of her capacity."
In 1946 the Kennedy family
' set up a foundation devoted to
helping the mentally retarded.
It was the first of its kind in
the United States. Mrs. Shriv
er urged that community pro
grams be formed to deal with
the problem of mental retardation.
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Sisters Flee From
Custody of Overly
Protective Father
: Los Angeles - IUPU - Two
teen-aged girls, held prisoner
In their home since February
by an overly protective fath
er, smashed a window to gain
freedom.
Police said the father, Eu
gene Austin, 38. a consulting
engineer, told them he kept
the girls locked up to keep
track of them while he work
ed. "The walls just sort of
closed in on me," said one of
the girls, Bonnie, 16. "My
dad told us that in case of an
emergency or a fire to smash
a window. Well, I just figured
it was an emergency and I
broke out."
- Bonnie had been taking cor
respondence courses. She and
her sister, Karen, were locked
up Feb. 8. Karen, 15, was per
mitted to return to school at
the start of the current semes
ter, police said.
One officer said the girls
told them they had even been
locked up separately at times
in their tract home in the
Mission Hills District.
No charges were filed
against the father. Officers
said he might be charged later.
Both girls were taken to the
McLaren Hall Juvenile Fa
cility. The girls told officers they
had appealed to friends for
help, but their pleas went un
answered. This was when they
decided to make a break for
freedom, police reported.
The pretty sisters were lock
ed up Feb. 8 after they went
to a friend's home while their
father was working
Officers said the Austin
home was immaculate. "There
wasn't a speck of dull any
where." Bonnie and Karen told of
ficers their father had not
mistreated them and often
took them shopping
Friends told officers the
girls had slipped them notes
telling of their plight and
pleading for help, but stid
they did not want to interfere.
Officers said all the doors
in the Austin home had double
locks and padlocks were
placed atop each window. A
sliding glass door was adjust
ed enough to permit the
family cat to enter and leave.
One officers said that Aus
tin, an avid Bible reader, had
even placed plastic coverings
over the windows and painted
them black so nobody could
look in on the girls.
One sister told police their
twice divorced father fre
quently dropped in on them at
odd hours to check up on
them.
"I didn't have many
friends," Bonnie told police,
"but I asked them to help us.
They were afraid of my dad.
"Why did he keep us locked
up? Mistrust, 1 guess. We went
next door and he didn't want
us to. He might have heard
rumors that we were seeing
boys and he probably believed
those rumors.
"When we asked him how
long we would be locked up he
told us that it would be until
he could trust us," she said.
"It wasn't so bad at first
because I thought it would
Just be until I was 18. but he
indicated tht I wouldn't get
out until I was 21," Bonnie
added.
"The walls just sort of
closed In on me. My dad 'old
us that in case of an emer
gency or a fire to smash a
window. Well. I just figured
it was an emergency and I
broke out."
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