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About Medford mail tribune. (Medford, Or.) 1909-1989 | View Entire Issue (Jan. 1, 1960)
." - . . . Deflation Problem Seen Near, Financial Institute Declares By ELMER C. WALZER UPI Financial Editor New York - (LTD - It is pos sible that the problem imme diately ahead of us is defla- 1 1 o n rather than inflation, says the Alex ander Hamil ton Institute. It's been a long time since we were troubled with deflation. Those who -do r e m e m ber i -a; isSKl Elmer Walzer mm mue wui ieii you mat de flation can be just as big a problem as inflation. For general purposes infla tion is thought of as a period of rising prices - rising cost of living. Deflation, just to make it simple, is the reverse. Prices decline, the dollar grows big ger. But there are fewer dol lars. Alexander Hamilton Insti tute doesn't go into the vagar ies of deflation. It mentions it in its annual review and forecast on business. The in stitute finds the outlook good for 1960, with high activity in the first half. But it warns that the cur rent business cycle is nearing its end. However, the year as a whole may well set a record for industry because of the momentum that will be built up in the first half. War and Inflation "Every major war," says the institute, "has been ac companied by inflation and every such period of inflation has been followed by defla tion. "The current period of in flation has lasted longer and been more extensive than any such period in the past. "On the basis of 'historical trend, a deflationary trend in the not too . distant future seems to be a distinct possi bility." The institute also notes that the current business cycle - a minor cycle may come to an end simultaneously with the end of the major cycle. "During the last half of 1960," it says, "the rate of expansion in business activity may slow down, although not enough to offset the prospec tive high rate during the first half." "Such slackening is espec ially likely if it becomes clear thai business is facing a reces sion in 1961. Fairly Pronounced Recession "Should this recession oc cur, it would tend to be fairly pronounced if the end of the minor cycle and the major cycle happened to coincide. "In some circles, it is be lieved that severe business depressions are things of the past because of measures taken by the government. That has yet to be proven be cause we have not yet reach ed the time when this theory has had a chance to be tested. "Meanwhile, minor cycles have occurred as they always have. Is it possible that the government has performed the much greater miracle of eliminating major cycles? "It is probable, however, that the government knows more about alleviating de pressions than it did when the 1929-1932 calamity occurred. "This means that business can look ahead to the end of a major cycle with less appre hension than formerly." Signs Toward 1961 The institute notes that the wholesale price index of the Bureau of Labor Statistics has held steady in 1959. A decline in wholesale prices in 1960, it adds, may be a sign that a business recession will be in evidence in 1961. The institute didn't explore that angle but it is a fact that in times of deflation there is a flight to the dollar. In in flation the flight is away from currency into goods, or com mon stocks. An immediate effect of de flation, it is held in financial circles, could be a sharp rise in demand for bonds, particu larly govern ments. The Treasury's problems of refi nancing would vanish, but the government would find other burdens building up to offset the loss of this one. FORMER DIRECTOR DIES Naperville, 111.-(UPD-Henry C. Beal, 68, a former vice president 'and director of the Western Electric Co., Inc., died Thursday. Ages Vary for Oregon Brides Corvallis (UPD "They're either too young or too old" goes the refrain of a war-time song. But in Oregon, it just isn't so, according to an Ore gon State college family life specialist. Mrs. Roberta Frasier, OSC extension specialist, said Ore gon brides are marrying all the way from 15 to 76 years of age. Recent figures show that out of 9961 marriages in the state, one bride was 15 years old, and three brides married for the first time at 75. Mrs. Frasier said women are mar rying earlier in life, even though Oregon marriages are becoming fewer. More daughters are married off in Oregon at 19 or younger than in many other states which have similar marriage requirements, as far as legal age and specified waiting period are concerned, Mrs. Frasier said. MAIL TRIBUNE, Medford, Or. Friday, Jin. 1, 1960 5 Chamber's Plans for Year to Be Reviewed Gerald Latham, 1960 presi dent of the Jackson county Chamber of Commerce, will speak on the chamber's plans for 1960 at the chamber roundtable in the Jackson ho tel Monday noon. Local retailers have been invited to attend as well as the general public. The talk will include a summation of last year's activities. Fair Weather Seen On Pacific Coast Washington -(UPD- The U.S. Weather Bureau forecasts heavy snow in the west cen tral part of the country to day and fair weather for the East and Pacific Coast. The bureau said in its New Year's Day forecast that the second storm of the holiday season was expected to move from the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains during the day. Blizzard warnings were is sued for New Year's Day across the Oklahoma Pan handle, western and central Kansas, and south central Nebraska. The storm -was ex pected to spread into the Texas Panhandle and north ward into Nebraska Saturday night. Scattered showers . were predicted for Southern Cal ifornia, eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley and light rain for eastern Okla homa and west central Mis souri. i DEBUNKS OLD STORY Mobile, Ala. -(UPD -A Mer chant Marine officer who was washed overboard then tossed back on deck by heavy seas last year, scoffed Thursday at the old story that a man's life flashes before his eyes when he is in danger of drowning. Francis Schremp, 58, chief mate of the SS John Lykes, called it "a lot of bunk." "All I could do was claw for some thing to hold on to," he said. GIGANTIC PURCHASES BRING LOW, LOW PRICES! NECKLACE AND if " Vv' l " ' 1 O 2KIfi3 " ffif lHrlteh - OS KLPC . J'5lr-r 8 Dinner Plate. g J iJL jSj JIt cer suar I III 3-IVLLET fcPOLE LAMP 088 I torn tAsv ww I AAAAlktsEt REG. UNIVEBSAL 8-CUP AUTOMATIC L" PERCOLATOR UU 3 r. ,.. 1 I your fiim vtry Km. ONLY 50c WEEK NO MONEY DOWN YEAR TO PAY 122 East Main Street Phone SP 3-5348 Store Hours: 9:30 A.M. to 5:30 P.M. 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