." - . . .
Deflation Problem Seen Near,
Financial Institute Declares
By ELMER C. WALZER
UPI Financial Editor
New York - (LTD - It is pos
sible that the problem imme
diately ahead of us is defla-
1 1 o n rather
than inflation,
says the Alex
ander Hamil
ton Institute.
It's been a
long time
since we were
troubled with
deflation.
Those who -do
r e m e m ber
i -a; isSKl
Elmer Walzer
mm mue wui ieii you mat de
flation can be just as big a
problem as inflation.
For general purposes infla
tion is thought of as a period
of rising prices - rising cost of
living. Deflation, just to make
it simple, is the reverse. Prices
decline, the dollar grows big
ger. But there are fewer dol
lars. Alexander Hamilton Insti
tute doesn't go into the vagar
ies of deflation. It mentions
it in its annual review and
forecast on business. The in
stitute finds the outlook good
for 1960, with high activity
in the first half.
But it warns that the cur
rent business cycle is nearing
its end. However, the year as
a whole may well set a record
for industry because of the
momentum that will be built
up in the first half.
War and Inflation
"Every major war," says
the institute, "has been ac
companied by inflation and
every such period of inflation
has been followed by defla
tion. "The current period of in
flation has lasted longer and
been more extensive than any
such period in the past.
"On the basis of 'historical
trend, a deflationary trend in
the not too . distant future
seems to be a distinct possi
bility." The institute also notes that
the current business cycle - a
minor cycle may come to an
end simultaneously with the
end of the major cycle.
"During the last half of
1960," it says, "the rate of
expansion in business activity
may slow down, although not
enough to offset the prospec
tive high rate during the first
half."
"Such slackening is espec
ially likely if it becomes clear
thai business is facing a reces
sion in 1961.
Fairly Pronounced Recession
"Should this recession oc
cur, it would tend to be fairly
pronounced if the end of the
minor cycle and the major
cycle happened to coincide.
"In some circles, it is be
lieved that severe business
depressions are things of the
past because of measures
taken by the government.
That has yet to be proven be
cause we have not yet reach
ed the time when this theory
has had a chance to be tested.
"Meanwhile, minor cycles
have occurred as they always
have. Is it possible that the
government has performed
the much greater miracle of
eliminating major cycles?
"It is probable, however,
that the government knows
more about alleviating de
pressions than it did when the
1929-1932 calamity occurred.
"This means that business
can look ahead to the end of a
major cycle with less appre
hension than formerly."
Signs Toward 1961
The institute notes that the
wholesale price index of the
Bureau of Labor Statistics
has held steady in 1959. A
decline in wholesale prices in
1960, it adds, may be a sign
that a business recession will
be in evidence in 1961.
The institute didn't explore
that angle but it is a fact that
in times of deflation there is
a flight to the dollar. In in
flation the flight is away from
currency into goods, or com
mon stocks.
An immediate effect of de
flation, it is held in financial
circles, could be a sharp rise
in demand for bonds, particu
larly govern ments. The
Treasury's problems of refi
nancing would vanish, but the
government would find other
burdens building up to offset
the loss of this one.
FORMER DIRECTOR DIES
Naperville, 111.-(UPD-Henry
C. Beal, 68, a former vice
president 'and director of the
Western Electric Co., Inc.,
died Thursday.
Ages Vary for
Oregon Brides
Corvallis (UPD "They're
either too young or too old"
goes the refrain of a war-time
song. But in Oregon, it just
isn't so, according to an Ore
gon State college family life
specialist.
Mrs. Roberta Frasier, OSC
extension specialist, said Ore
gon brides are marrying all
the way from 15 to 76 years
of age.
Recent figures show that
out of 9961 marriages in the
state, one bride was 15 years
old, and three brides married
for the first time at 75. Mrs.
Frasier said women are mar
rying earlier in life, even
though Oregon marriages are
becoming fewer.
More daughters are married
off in Oregon at 19 or younger
than in many other states
which have similar marriage
requirements, as far as legal
age and specified waiting
period are concerned, Mrs.
Frasier said.
MAIL TRIBUNE, Medford, Or.
Friday, Jin. 1, 1960
5
Chamber's Plans for
Year to Be Reviewed
Gerald Latham, 1960 presi
dent of the Jackson county
Chamber of Commerce, will
speak on the chamber's plans
for 1960 at the chamber
roundtable in the Jackson ho
tel Monday noon.
Local retailers have been
invited to attend as well as
the general public. The talk
will include a summation of
last year's activities.
Fair Weather Seen
On Pacific Coast
Washington -(UPD- The U.S.
Weather Bureau forecasts
heavy snow in the west cen
tral part of the country to
day and fair weather for the
East and Pacific Coast.
The bureau said in its New
Year's Day forecast that the
second storm of the holiday
season was expected to move
from the southern Rockies
into the central Great Plains
during the day.
Blizzard warnings were is
sued for New Year's Day
across the Oklahoma Pan
handle, western and central
Kansas, and south central
Nebraska. The storm -was ex
pected to spread into the
Texas Panhandle and north
ward into Nebraska Saturday
night.
Scattered showers . were
predicted for Southern Cal
ifornia, eastern Texas and the
lower Mississippi Valley and
light rain for eastern Okla
homa and west central Mis
souri. i
DEBUNKS OLD STORY
Mobile, Ala. -(UPD -A Mer
chant Marine officer who was
washed overboard then tossed
back on deck by heavy seas
last year, scoffed Thursday at
the old story that a man's life
flashes before his eyes when
he is in danger of drowning.
Francis Schremp, 58, chief
mate of the SS John Lykes,
called it "a lot of bunk." "All
I could do was claw for some
thing to hold on to," he said.
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