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About Oregon daily emerald. (Eugene, Or.) 1920-2012 | View Entire Issue (Jan. 21, 1980)
Iowa caucus sets national tempo Analysis By WILLIAM KOGUT Of the Emerald Tonight the less than 10 per cent of Iowa’s voters who trudge to local churches, schools, firehouses and other public centers will set the tone for the 1980 Presidential race. If the Des Moines Register and Tribune poll is any indica tion, the most interesting results of the Iowa caucuses should come out of the Republican caucuses. Before the Republican can didate’s debate in Iowa, Ronald Reagan was gauged to have 50 percent of the Republican vote. But Reagan, following the ad vice of campaign manager John Sears, shunned the debate as an unnecessary risk. Sears is the same man who advised Reagan to name his running mate, Sen. Richard Schweiker, before the 1976 Republican convention opened, a strategy which backfired. You’d think Reagan would have learned, but old dogs, new tricks and all that. The six Republicans who showed up for the Iowa debate performed well, on the whole. Reagan, who decided not to participate, looked arrogant. His support, as measured by the Register's polls, dropped to 26 percent. On the other hand, Sen. Howard Baker's support jumped from 7 percent to 18 percent. If Baker does that well tonight and Reagan does no better than 26 percent, Reagan will be perceived as faltering. In 1972, Sen. Edmund Muskie looked the same way in New Hampshire when he failed to garner more than 50 percent of the vote against George McGovern. But don’t count on Baker to do that well. The Iowa caucus is really a test of organization; the ability of a candidate to mobilize hardcore support. Baker hasn’t built much of an organization in i ^German AUTO SERVICE VW’S MERCEDES BMW’S DATSUN TOYOTA reliable service for your foreign car 2025 Franklin Blvd. Eugene, Ore. 97403 Bus. Ph. 342-2912 Study at the International Division of WASEDA UNIVERSITY in Tokyo, Japan for the 1980-81 academic year. • Earn U of O credit • Live with a Japanese family • No language requirement • One-way charter flight included - /IPPL Y BY FEBR UAR Y 15 - For further info, contact: Ralph Falconer - 358 PLC, 686-4822 Steve Kohl - 313 Friendly, 686-4009 Iowa, so he’s relying on a media blitz instead. George Bush, who jumped from 3 percent to 17 percent in the Register poll, has what's generally conceded to be the best organization in the state. Bush’s game plan emulates Carter’s 1976 plan, where Carter broke away from the pack in Iowa. Bush is beating Carter’s record: He's spent 27 days in Iowa to Carter’s 17 days in 1976. John Connally actually dropped two points in the Register poll. He's now desper ately stumping the state trying to avoid finishing a poor fourth. Illinois Rep. Phil Crane has a low 6 percent. Hoping Reagan will be forced to step aside, Crane presented himself during the debate as a young Ronald Reagan. The 69-year-old Reagan may keel over before the convention. "Reagan will be the Republican nominee, that is, if he doesn’t drop dead before the convention," says Miz Lil lian, the president’s mother. Sen. Bob Dole of Kansas was self-pitying in the debate. John Anderson was admirably forth right. But, in any case, neither man figures to have much of an impact on the caucus results. Perhaps realizing the futility of campaigning in Iowa, Anderson has spent the last week campaigning in New Hamp shire. Surprisingly, Reagan, follow ing Sears’ advice to run his campaign on a "national basis,” has also spent most of this last week outside of Iowa. So come tomorrow morning, don’t be surprised if George Bush, ex-U.N. ambassador and ex-CIA director, comes close to Reagan and the media labels him “the real winner of the Iowa caucuses." Yet, don’t expect Bush to repeat Carter’s rise from obscurity just because Bush may get off the ground much as Carter did in 1976. When the 1976 race moved south, Carter was on his home ground and seemed to be building momentum. But when Bush moves south, he’ll be in Reagan and Connally country and his momentum might stall. On the Democratic side of the Iowa caucuses, Carter has campaigned by staying in Wa shington and acting presidential while simultaneously making personal phone calls to his Iowan supporters. omi i ^ y Library Turnaround 9:30-2:00 15th and Kincaid V_-----.-.J Jage 12 The Iranian and Afghani crises have worked to Carter’s advantage, as has Sen. Ted Kennedy’s inability to focus his campaign themes. Kennedy’s main complaint against Carter was his supposed failure to lead, but now Carter appears to be leading, although to where is anyone’s guess. Kennedy was also taking Carter to task for his positions on energy and infla tion, but with foreign affairs dominating the headlines, Ken nedy’s speeches on economics seem out of touch. As a result, since last August the poll standing of Kennedy and Carter has dramatically reversed in Iowa. Carter is now ahead of Kennedy by 57 to 25 percent. Carter’s standing with Iowa Ralph Nader to speak today Consumer activist Ralph Nader will speak in McArthur Court at noon today. There will be no charge. Nader will speak on the rights and responsiblities of the con sumer and how they relate to the future energy supply. Nader’s speech wraps up the ASUO Surviving the ’80s Con ference. MITHRANDER Mon.-Tue.-Wed. January 21-23 PETE KARNES Thur.-Fri.-Sat. January 24-26 COVER CHARGE Broadway, Downtown 343-1896 graphic by Tom Ettel farmers may have suffered at the start of the embargo, but grain prices have not plummet ed as expected and Vice Pres. Walter Mondale (remember him?) has been stumping the state saying that opposing the embargo is unpatriotic. Now, at the Democratic caucuses, a voter must stand up to show which candidate he or she favors. The possibility of rising publicly to oppose a President coping with foreign crises might make many a voter think twice of going for Ken nedy. Any candidate who has less than 15 percent of the vote in a caucus room doesn’t get even one delegate. That’s why California Gov. Jerry Brown withdrew from the Iowa caucuses: With the Register poll showing him with only 4 per cent, it looked like he was in danger of being embarrassingly shut out. He had only involved himself in the Iowa race so that he might appear in the Democratic debate. When that debate was cancelled because Carter said he was too busy handling crises, Brown’s raison d’etre in Iowa evaporated. So, all in all, Carter’s chances in Iowa look good and Kennedy must look to New Hampshire to give his candidacy the momen tum it so desperately needs. imported coffee (X^tea By the Pound or bv the eup Kinko’s 764 E . 13th 344-7894 Bean-of-fhe-Month 50c Off Regular Price Monday, January 21. 1980
