Iowa caucus sets national tempo
Analysis By WILLIAM KOGUT
Of the Emerald
Tonight the less than 10 per
cent of Iowa’s voters who
trudge to local churches,
schools, firehouses and other
public centers will set the tone
for the 1980 Presidential race.
If the Des Moines Register
and Tribune poll is any indica
tion, the most interesting results
of the Iowa caucuses should
come out of the Republican
caucuses.
Before the Republican can
didate’s debate in Iowa, Ronald
Reagan was gauged to have 50
percent of the Republican vote.
But Reagan, following the ad
vice of campaign manager John
Sears, shunned the debate as
an unnecessary risk.
Sears is the same man who
advised Reagan to name his
running mate, Sen. Richard
Schweiker, before the 1976
Republican convention opened,
a strategy which backfired.
You’d think Reagan would have
learned, but old dogs, new
tricks and all that.
The six Republicans who
showed up for the Iowa debate
performed well, on the whole.
Reagan, who decided not to
participate, looked arrogant. His
support, as measured by the
Register's polls, dropped to 26
percent.
On the other hand, Sen.
Howard Baker's support
jumped from 7 percent to 18
percent. If Baker does that well
tonight and Reagan does no
better than 26 percent, Reagan
will be perceived as faltering. In
1972, Sen. Edmund Muskie
looked the same way in New
Hampshire when he failed to
garner more than 50 percent of
the vote against George
McGovern.
But don’t count on Baker to
do that well. The Iowa caucus is
really a test of organization; the
ability of a candidate to mobilize
hardcore support. Baker hasn’t
built much of an organization in
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Iowa, so he’s relying on a media
blitz instead.
George Bush, who jumped
from 3 percent to 17 percent in
the Register poll, has what's
generally conceded to be the
best organization in the state.
Bush’s game plan emulates
Carter’s 1976 plan, where
Carter broke away from the
pack in Iowa. Bush is beating
Carter’s record: He's spent 27
days in Iowa to Carter’s 17 days
in 1976.
John Connally actually
dropped two points in the
Register poll. He's now desper
ately stumping the state trying
to avoid finishing a poor fourth.
Illinois Rep. Phil Crane has a low
6 percent. Hoping Reagan will
be forced to step aside, Crane
presented himself during the
debate as a young Ronald
Reagan. The 69-year-old
Reagan may keel over before
the convention. "Reagan will be
the Republican nominee, that is,
if he doesn’t drop dead before
the convention," says Miz Lil
lian, the president’s mother.
Sen. Bob Dole of Kansas was
self-pitying in the debate. John
Anderson was admirably forth
right. But, in any case, neither
man figures to have much of an
impact on the caucus results.
Perhaps realizing the futility of
campaigning in Iowa, Anderson
has spent the last week
campaigning in New Hamp
shire.
Surprisingly, Reagan, follow
ing Sears’ advice to run his
campaign on a "national basis,”
has also spent most of this last
week outside of Iowa.
So come tomorrow morning,
don’t be surprised if George
Bush, ex-U.N. ambassador and
ex-CIA director, comes close to
Reagan and the media labels
him “the real winner of the Iowa
caucuses." Yet, don’t expect
Bush to repeat Carter’s rise
from obscurity just because
Bush may get off the ground
much as Carter did in 1976.
When the 1976 race moved
south, Carter was on his home
ground and seemed to be
building momentum. But when
Bush moves south, he’ll be in
Reagan and Connally country
and his momentum might stall.
On the Democratic side of the
Iowa caucuses, Carter has
campaigned by staying in Wa
shington and acting presidential
while simultaneously making
personal phone calls to his
Iowan supporters.
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The Iranian and Afghani
crises have worked to Carter’s
advantage, as has Sen. Ted
Kennedy’s inability to focus his
campaign themes. Kennedy’s
main complaint against Carter
was his supposed failure to
lead, but now Carter appears to
be leading, although to where is
anyone’s guess. Kennedy was
also taking Carter to task for his
positions on energy and infla
tion, but with foreign affairs
dominating the headlines, Ken
nedy’s speeches on economics
seem out of touch.
As a result, since last August
the poll standing of Kennedy
and Carter has dramatically
reversed in Iowa. Carter is now
ahead of Kennedy by 57 to 25
percent.
Carter’s standing with Iowa
Ralph Nader
to speak today
Consumer activist Ralph
Nader will speak in McArthur
Court at noon today. There will
be no charge.
Nader will speak on the rights
and responsiblities of the con
sumer and how they relate to
the future energy supply.
Nader’s speech wraps up the
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graphic by Tom Ettel
farmers may have suffered at
the start of the embargo, but
grain prices have not plummet
ed as expected and Vice Pres.
Walter Mondale (remember
him?) has been stumping the
state saying that opposing the
embargo is unpatriotic.
Now, at the Democratic
caucuses, a voter must stand up
to show which candidate he or
she favors. The possibility of
rising publicly to oppose a
President coping with foreign
crises might make many a voter
think twice of going for Ken
nedy.
Any candidate who has less
than 15 percent of the vote in a
caucus room doesn’t get even
one delegate. That’s why
California Gov. Jerry Brown
withdrew from the Iowa
caucuses: With the Register poll
showing him with only 4 per
cent, it looked like he was in
danger of being embarrassingly
shut out. He had only involved
himself in the Iowa race so that
he might appear in the
Democratic debate. When that
debate was cancelled because
Carter said he was too busy
handling crises, Brown’s raison
d’etre in Iowa evaporated.
So, all in all, Carter’s chances
in Iowa look good and Kennedy
must look to New Hampshire to
give his candidacy the momen
tum it so desperately needs.
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Monday, January 21. 1980