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About Medford mail tribune. (Medford, Or.) 1909-1989 | View Entire Issue (Aug. 13, 1959)
US. Defense '.(Leaders ConvSnced off American Koclket Head (Over Russians Editor'! note: Every time an American test missile explodes on its launching pad or foes off course and has to be blown np, questions inevitably follow. Why do we seem to be having so much trouble? Are the Russians ahead of us in the missile race? Are their missiles better than ours (as Soviet Premier Xikita Khrushchev has so often boasted)? This dispatch, by a vet eran Pentagon reporter who has covered the missile story from its early days, provide a balance sheet on the basis of known facts. By DARRELL GARWOOD UPI Correspondent , "Washington (UPD U. S. de fense leaders are firmly con vinced that, despite the pres ent missile lag, American rocket experts have already gained three or four years on the Russians in history's most fantastically complica ted technological race. The contention is that the Soviets started an all - out drive to produce intercontin ental ballistic missiles at least four years sooner than the U.S. And yet, these officials add if it hadn't been for recent difficulties in' the testing of America's Atlas ICBM, the U.S. and Russia wouia now be almost neck-and-neck the race to deploy such mis siles at bases for war pur poses. Here is the situation: Where We Stand The best U.S. intelligence is that the Soviets will have iu ICBMs in the hands of their troops and ready to fire by the end of 1959. Intelligence reports are subject in inter pretation conflicting and in exact information is thrown in along with an occasional report that may be exactly right - but 10 is the estimate of Defense Secretary Neil H McElroy after analysis of the hicrhest military advice. Then missiles would be the equivalent of one American sauadron. If the Soviets have these by Dec. 31, 1959, they will be on almost precisely the same schedule laid down for U.S. troops after the Atlas performed perfectly for the first time last JMov. zn, rumbling flawlessly 6,300 land miles from Cape Cana . veral, Fla., far past Ascension Island in the South Atlantic. (A so-called 5,500-mile mis sle has a range of 6,300 land miles, because the military services use nautical rather than statute or land miles.) But U.S. optimism that folr lowed the Nov. 29 test ebbed away as the Atlas failed in five successive launching at tempts during the first half of 1959, and the U.S. pro-j gram was set back at least I two months. It is possible at this mo ment that the Soviets may have the first operational ICBM. But another success ful Atlas test was completed July 21 and still another one week later. So, if two more successful launchings can be chalked ud this summer, the U.S. may yet have 10 or more of the intercontinental mis siles in the hands of its troops bv the end of 1959. " So far as the first year of ICBM delopment is concern ed. America is like a baseball club that is running behind at mid-season but still nas a chance to win the pennant. Where We Started : Missiles were assigned a minor role in U.S. military thinking during the first eight years after World War II. Half of those years were spent enjoying a monopoly of the atomic bomb, and the other half in a belief that the enor mous expense of interconti nental missiles could never be justified by the amount of explosive payload they could carry. Serious U.S. thinking about the production of ICBMs be gan in October, 1953, when a committee headed by the late Atomic Energy Commissioner Dr. John Von Neumann re ported that H-bomb warheads could be made small enough to be carried by the ICBM. The U.S. ICBM program began to move into high gear after Von Neumann's predic tions were verified in a series of H-bomb tests in the Pacific in 1954. and the present man agement setup for the ICBM was completed in 1955. There is ample evidence that there was no similar lag in the Russian IBCM effort, The Soviets are believed to have turned intensive atten tion to big missiles as soon as they achieved the- atomic bomb in 1949, which would give them a starting advan tage of at least four years. Part of the reason may have been that, American military thinking was pat terned after the British, while the Russians followed the German line. The British dur ing. World War II were in clined to pooh-pooh the Ger man V2, the first true space missile, and a common Ameri can theory was that the Ger mans could have better spent their money on jet planes. But the Germans and Rus sians never lost respect for the 3,000 - mile - an - hour V2, and the Soviets ended the war with every intention of elab- oratinsr on this weapon as soon as possible. One odd result of the earlier Russian start, American of ficials believe, is the large Soviet Sputniks. Since the Russians did not wait for the development of small nuclear warheads, they built bigger rockets, and thus they were able to put up big earth satel lites, according to the theory. When American ICBMs are ready, they may equal past sputnik performances, but by. that time the Soviets may be creating still larger moonlets. The Difficulties The 82-foot Atlas consists of 100,000 parts which, if per formance is to be satisfactory, must not fail more than once in 100,000 times. That kind of reliability may be easy enough to obtain in certain parts, such as nuts, bolts and sections of the cas ings. But there are 12,000 dif ferent electronic components, and there is a total f between 36,000 and 37,000 functioning parts. Maj. Gen. Donald N. Yates, as commander of the Missile Test Center at Cape Canaver al, has said that "in order to insure satisfactory operation of three out of four missiles using an arbitrary figure-the failure of any single electron ic item must be limited to once in about 10,000 times. Yates stated that during test firings radio telemetry re ports are received on 175 dif ferent missile functions. Dr Joseph Charyk, Air Force Chief Scientist, recently add ed a touch to the picture of complications by noting that the loss of tone second of thrust near burn - out would I like old-fashioned lights for a j 100,000 times is bound to in-1 chance. McElroy has said he cause a missile xo miss its unrisimas iree u one iaus voive a t mm amuuut m target by 300 miles. the others fail with it. An will have an over-all reliabil- The functioning parts are accuracy' of all but once in ity to "go the route"' of not Price 10 Cents Medford 54th Year Tribune 2nd SECTION MEDFORD, OREGON, THURSDAY, AUGUST 13, 1959 12 Pages Washingtori-(DPD-Here are the facts and figures on U. S. long-range missiles: US. Mossolle (Lineup Name Height Takeoff Speed Fuel Status (in ft.) Weight (in (in lbs.) mph) , Atlas &2Vz 260,000 Over liquid Operational 15,000 this year Titan 90 200,000 Over liquid Early test 15,000 stage Minuleman Not Not Over solid Research &. released released 15,000 develop-' (reportedly " ' ment . about 30) " - i Thor 65 110,000 Over liquid ; Deployed 10,000 in Britain Polaris 28 Not Over solid Develop- released 10,000 ment Jupiter 60 110,000 Over liquid Operational ' 10,000 (Note: The ranges of the Atlas, Titan and Minuteman are given as 5,500 nautical or 6,300 statute miles. The ranges of the Thor, Polaris and Jupiter are officially listed as 1,500 nautical or 1,725 statute miles, although it is known- that early models of the submarine-launched Polaris will be limited to a range of 800 to 900 miles.) Senate Near Vote On Veto Override Washington - (UPD - Senate Democrats, under adverse odds, came to a showdown to day on overriding President Eisenhower's veto of their $1,375,000,000 multi-program housing bill. Democratic, leader Lyndon B. Johnson (Tex.) told news men he did not expect the vote before midafternoon or later. He would not predict the result but said he would vote to override. Prospects for victory were dimmed by a statement from five Republicans that they would support the veto even thought they had voted for the controversial measure in original passage. YMCA CHAIRMAN (DIES Ridgewood, N.J. -CPD- Viv an C. McCollom, 57, chairman of the National Board of the Young Men's Christian asso ciation of the United States and president of the Allen town Converting Co., Allen town, Pa., died Tuesday night. expects to even after missiles are declared operational they more than 50 per cent. And he said that half of those that go the route probably will miss the target. , Do the Russians have the same problems as to chancy performance due to compli cated mechanism? This can not be answered for certain. But if the Russians have fol lowed their usual methods, U.S. experts believe, they probably have produced mis siles that are somewhat less "sophisticated" and compli cated, and more rugged than the American types. Obviously, however, the complications and failures would be only a matter of degree and would not prevent the Soviets from running into the same kind of setbacks. The key point, U.S. officials 'NO POLITICS' VISIT Concord, N.H. (UPD Vice President Richard M. Nixon plans an "entirely non-political" trip to New Hampshire next month to attend ground breaking ceremonies, for a federal flood control project. Nixon accepted the invitation of the Merrimack River Val ley Flood Control Commis sion - Wednesday. But he dampened speculation that he would use the occasion :' to launch a drive to win the state's March presidential pri-mary-the first in the nation by stressing that, the visit would' be "entirely non-political." believe, is that the Russians have had more time in which to make - and correct - mis takes,' with complete secrecy covering their failures. We hear only of their successes. Our failures are publicized along with the successful tests. From what little is known, the Soviets have a better-record for accuracy in firings, thus far. The Soviet Sputniks, for example, came closer to the orbital paths originally sought by the scientists than our satellites did. The Fears Top-level American mili tary thinking at present is that the Soviets would never launch a missile attack on the U.S. unless they had several hundred ICBMs emplaced, enough so they could hope to knock out America's ability to retaliate. If that is true, the deploy ment of 10 Soviet ICBMs during the remainder of 1959 would not be significant ex cept as a start. There would be a breathing spell of several years to improve defenses be fore a Pearl Harbor-type at tack might be feared. In the present state of af fairs and for some time to come, the Soviets would have no reason to fear retaliation with American interconti nental missiles. So the theory contains an assumption that U.S. security still rests large ly on an ability to put 2,000 or more nuclear bombing air planes over Soviet soil in the first few days after an attack - plus some intermediate range missiles that are being mounted in Europe. The Soviets cannot follow up missiles with bombers in large numbers, since, in their concentration o n missiles, they did not build a big bomber fleet.' Some of our military men believe the So viets might think their de fenses against manned bomb ers were sufficiently good to risk an attack by the U.S. air fleet - but this not the official line. Within a few years, a fleet of submarines carrying 1,500 - mile Polaris missiles will be added to the U.S. re taliatory threat. Meanwhile, scientists are working on missile defense with some hope of building an effective anti-missile wea pon. And some U.S. leaders believe that, even if defense proves impossible, the ter rible destruction that would occur on both . sides will in definitely prevent i the out break of nuclear war. WMwE(3GS for a hearty breakfast OREGON FARM FRESH Guaranteed fresh! c mm - "e. -- " r.- m r-. - We reserve the right to limit quantities . . . sub ject to stock en hand. 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