US. Defense '.(Leaders ConvSnced off American Koclket Head (Over Russians
Editor'! note: Every time an
American test missile explodes on
its launching pad or foes off course
and has to be blown np, questions
inevitably follow. Why do we seem
to be having so much trouble? Are
the Russians ahead of us in the
missile race? Are their missiles
better than ours (as Soviet Premier
Xikita Khrushchev has so often
boasted)? This dispatch, by a vet
eran Pentagon reporter who has
covered the missile story from its
early days, provide a balance
sheet on the basis of known facts.
By DARRELL GARWOOD
UPI Correspondent
, "Washington (UPD U. S. de
fense leaders are firmly con
vinced that, despite the pres
ent missile lag, American
rocket experts have already
gained three or four years on
the Russians in history's most
fantastically complica ted
technological race.
The contention is that the
Soviets started an all - out
drive to produce intercontin
ental ballistic missiles at least
four years sooner than the
U.S.
And yet, these officials add
if it hadn't been for recent
difficulties in' the testing of
America's Atlas ICBM, the
U.S. and Russia wouia now
be almost neck-and-neck
the race to deploy such mis
siles at bases for war pur
poses. Here is the situation:
Where We Stand
The best U.S. intelligence is
that the Soviets will have iu
ICBMs in the hands of their
troops and ready to fire by
the end of 1959. Intelligence
reports are subject in inter
pretation conflicting and in
exact information is thrown
in along with an occasional
report that may be exactly
right - but 10 is the estimate
of Defense Secretary Neil H
McElroy after analysis of the
hicrhest military advice.
Then missiles would be the
equivalent of one American
sauadron. If the Soviets have
these by Dec. 31, 1959, they
will be on almost precisely
the same schedule laid down
for U.S. troops after the Atlas
performed perfectly for the
first time last JMov. zn,
rumbling flawlessly 6,300
land miles from Cape Cana
. veral, Fla., far past Ascension
Island in the South Atlantic.
(A so-called 5,500-mile mis
sle has a range of 6,300 land
miles, because the military
services use nautical rather
than statute or land miles.)
But U.S. optimism that folr
lowed the Nov. 29 test ebbed
away as the Atlas failed in
five successive launching at
tempts during the first half
of 1959, and the U.S. pro-j
gram was set back at least I
two months.
It is possible at this mo
ment that the Soviets may
have the first operational
ICBM. But another success
ful Atlas test was completed
July 21 and still another one
week later. So, if two more
successful launchings can be
chalked ud this summer, the
U.S. may yet have 10 or more
of the intercontinental mis
siles in the hands of its troops
bv the end of 1959. "
So far as the first year of
ICBM delopment is concern
ed. America is like a baseball
club that is running behind
at mid-season but still nas a
chance to win the pennant.
Where We Started
: Missiles were assigned a
minor role in U.S. military
thinking during the first eight
years after World War II.
Half of those years were spent
enjoying a monopoly of the
atomic bomb, and the other
half in a belief that the enor
mous expense of interconti
nental missiles could never be
justified by the amount of
explosive payload they could
carry.
Serious U.S. thinking about
the production of ICBMs be
gan in October, 1953, when a
committee headed by the late
Atomic Energy Commissioner
Dr. John Von Neumann re
ported that H-bomb warheads
could be made small enough
to be carried by the ICBM.
The U.S. ICBM program
began to move into high gear
after Von Neumann's predic
tions were verified in a series
of H-bomb tests in the Pacific
in 1954. and the present man
agement setup for the ICBM
was completed in 1955.
There is ample evidence
that there was no similar lag
in the Russian IBCM effort,
The Soviets are believed to
have turned intensive atten
tion to big missiles as soon
as they achieved the- atomic
bomb in 1949, which would
give them a starting advan
tage of at least four years.
Part of the reason may
have been that, American
military thinking was pat
terned after the British, while
the Russians followed the
German line. The British dur
ing. World War II were in
clined to pooh-pooh the Ger
man V2, the first true space
missile, and a common Ameri
can theory was that the Ger
mans could have better spent
their money on jet planes.
But the Germans and Rus
sians never lost respect for
the 3,000 - mile - an - hour V2,
and the Soviets ended the war
with every intention of elab-
oratinsr on this weapon as
soon as possible.
One odd result of the earlier
Russian start, American of
ficials believe, is the large
Soviet Sputniks. Since the
Russians did not wait for the
development of small nuclear
warheads, they built bigger
rockets, and thus they were
able to put up big earth satel
lites, according to the theory.
When American ICBMs are
ready, they may equal past
sputnik performances, but by.
that time the Soviets may be
creating still larger moonlets.
The Difficulties
The 82-foot Atlas consists
of 100,000 parts which, if per
formance is to be satisfactory,
must not fail more than once
in 100,000 times.
That kind of reliability may
be easy enough to obtain in
certain parts, such as nuts,
bolts and sections of the cas
ings. But there are 12,000 dif
ferent electronic components,
and there is a total f between
36,000 and 37,000 functioning
parts.
Maj. Gen. Donald N. Yates,
as commander of the Missile
Test Center at Cape Canaver
al, has said that "in order to
insure satisfactory operation
of three out of four missiles
using an arbitrary figure-the
failure of any single electron
ic item must be limited to
once in about 10,000 times.
Yates stated that during
test firings radio telemetry re
ports are received on 175 dif
ferent missile functions. Dr
Joseph Charyk, Air Force
Chief Scientist, recently add
ed a touch to the picture of
complications by noting that
the loss of tone second of
thrust near burn - out would I like old-fashioned lights for a j 100,000 times is bound to in-1 chance. McElroy has said he
cause a missile xo miss its unrisimas iree u one iaus voive a t mm amuuut m
target by 300 miles. the others fail with it. An will have an over-all reliabil-
The functioning parts are accuracy' of all but once in ity to "go the route"' of not
Price 10 Cents
Medford
54th Year
Tribune
2nd SECTION MEDFORD, OREGON, THURSDAY, AUGUST 13, 1959 12 Pages
Washingtori-(DPD-Here are the facts and figures on U. S.
long-range missiles:
US. Mossolle (Lineup
Name Height Takeoff Speed Fuel Status
(in ft.) Weight (in
(in lbs.) mph) ,
Atlas &2Vz 260,000 Over liquid Operational
15,000 this year
Titan 90 200,000 Over liquid Early test
15,000 stage
Minuleman Not Not Over solid Research &.
released released 15,000 develop-'
(reportedly " ' ment .
about 30) " -
i
Thor 65 110,000 Over liquid ; Deployed
10,000 in Britain
Polaris 28 Not Over solid Develop-
released 10,000 ment
Jupiter 60 110,000 Over liquid Operational
' 10,000
(Note: The ranges of the Atlas, Titan and Minuteman are
given as 5,500 nautical or 6,300 statute miles. The ranges
of the Thor, Polaris and Jupiter are officially listed as 1,500
nautical or 1,725 statute miles, although it is known- that
early models of the submarine-launched Polaris will be
limited to a range of 800 to 900 miles.)
Senate Near Vote
On Veto Override
Washington - (UPD - Senate
Democrats, under adverse
odds, came to a showdown to
day on overriding President
Eisenhower's veto of their
$1,375,000,000 multi-program
housing bill.
Democratic, leader Lyndon
B. Johnson (Tex.) told news
men he did not expect the
vote before midafternoon or
later. He would not predict
the result but said he would
vote to override.
Prospects for victory were
dimmed by a statement from
five Republicans that they
would support the veto even
thought they had voted for
the controversial measure in
original passage.
YMCA CHAIRMAN (DIES
Ridgewood, N.J. -CPD- Viv
an C. McCollom, 57, chairman
of the National Board of the
Young Men's Christian asso
ciation of the United States
and president of the Allen
town Converting Co., Allen
town, Pa., died Tuesday night.
expects to even after missiles
are declared operational they
more than 50 per cent. And
he said that half of those that
go the route probably will
miss the target. ,
Do the Russians have the
same problems as to chancy
performance due to compli
cated mechanism? This can
not be answered for certain.
But if the Russians have fol
lowed their usual methods,
U.S. experts believe, they
probably have produced mis
siles that are somewhat less
"sophisticated" and compli
cated, and more rugged than
the American types.
Obviously, however, the
complications and failures
would be only a matter of
degree and would not prevent
the Soviets from running into
the same kind of setbacks.
The key point, U.S. officials
'NO POLITICS' VISIT
Concord, N.H. (UPD Vice
President Richard M. Nixon
plans an "entirely non-political"
trip to New Hampshire
next month to attend ground
breaking ceremonies, for a
federal flood control project.
Nixon accepted the invitation
of the Merrimack River Val
ley Flood Control Commis
sion - Wednesday. But he
dampened speculation that he
would use the occasion :' to
launch a drive to win the
state's March presidential pri-mary-the
first in the nation
by stressing that, the visit
would' be "entirely non-political."
believe, is that the Russians
have had more time in which
to make - and correct - mis
takes,' with complete secrecy
covering their failures. We
hear only of their successes.
Our failures are publicized
along with the successful
tests.
From what little is known,
the Soviets have a better-record
for accuracy in firings,
thus far. The Soviet Sputniks,
for example, came closer to
the orbital paths originally
sought by the scientists than
our satellites did.
The Fears
Top-level American mili
tary thinking at present is
that the Soviets would never
launch a missile attack on the
U.S. unless they had several
hundred ICBMs emplaced,
enough so they could hope to
knock out America's ability
to retaliate.
If that is true, the deploy
ment of 10 Soviet ICBMs
during the remainder of 1959
would not be significant ex
cept as a start. There would
be a breathing spell of several
years to improve defenses be
fore a Pearl Harbor-type at
tack might be feared.
In the present state of af
fairs and for some time to
come, the Soviets would have
no reason to fear retaliation
with American interconti
nental missiles. So the theory
contains an assumption that
U.S. security still rests large
ly on an ability to put 2,000
or more nuclear bombing air
planes over Soviet soil in the
first few days after an attack
- plus some intermediate
range missiles that are being
mounted in Europe.
The Soviets cannot follow
up missiles with bombers in
large numbers, since, in their
concentration o n missiles,
they did not build a big
bomber fleet.' Some of our
military men believe the So
viets might think their de
fenses against manned bomb
ers were sufficiently good to
risk an attack by the U.S. air
fleet - but this not the official
line. Within a few years, a
fleet of submarines carrying
1,500 - mile Polaris missiles
will be added to the U.S. re
taliatory threat.
Meanwhile, scientists are
working on missile defense
with some hope of building
an effective anti-missile wea
pon. And some U.S. leaders
believe that, even if defense
proves impossible, the ter
rible destruction that would
occur on both . sides will in
definitely prevent i the out
break of nuclear war.
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