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About Medford mail tribune. (Medford, Or.) 1909-1989 | View Entire Issue (June 1, 1930)
MEDFORD MATL TRTBUNE, MEDFORD, OHKOON. SUNDAY, JTNE 1. UYM. PAGE THREB M. Y. World's Editorial A H of Literary Digest's Prohibition Poll iA P" of nf&vy "Ve n,""" 'imerlcnna on the prohibition que 2. has been completed by the jyterary Digest, wlh the following vault" Those favoring the continunnc tnl) strict enforcement of the Fiehteenth Amendment and the Volstead act: 1,404,098, or 30.5 per Tliose favoring modification ot ,h. Volstead net to permit light 'imesand beer: 1,399,314. or 29.1 'Wr cent. f Those favoring repeal of the Eighteenth Amendment: 1.943,052. or 40.4 per cent. The total of those ,who wish either repeal of the Eighteenth Amendment or modification of thy Volstead act to permit light wines sod beer Is 3,342,366. or Gil. 5 per cent. The accuracy of those figures nn V Index of public opinion has, o; -rjurse, been challenged. It is said 7 ",e ,,:lUol "-n: out by th- tricts, who,,. lry serUlO strongest: that . . mHhods employed ( ehec-kin hu-- .,, , ' 1 .'"'nt opponents of the iilw frn, vili,B twice; that fiends of th, luw. meantime, ig nore such M, ;is ...eaninKless and make it th-h- practice U) boveutt all straw hall.,t. There Is no precise way r.f prov ing or ilPi-.vlnB the try tit of any of these statements. Let i,s aume that they are true ilnU that l th.. circumstance r ,ile ease the Di Best noil rannnr nui... ... sent the opinion of the country ac- ..u..!;. inrie remains one test which sunnlit .1 vii..n.. and instructive basis of cnmi..-.'.-;- s..n. This test is ihn taken bv the Litem ry Digest Hs.Mf in 1Q2Z. Any criticism which can fairly be made of the present poll can bo mad,, with criuul fairness of the poll in lie: 2. The two polls stand on a pur. The basis of comparison between them rests on solid ground and the reliability of any conclu sions drawn from such a compari son cannot be challenged. In this earlier noli find n we find now, that the industrial1 stateH in the east and north arei opposed to the law and that suenj .III- ..h.. .. .... . . found chiefly lathe west andVnith.i There is this difference in the! present case, however. The figus.'s, fhow tflut in those sections favor-! ing the law, dry sentiment is aij best holding its own; whereas In those sections opposed to the law. I wet sentiment has made spectacular) gains, in Kansas, for example, thai percentage nf the favoring en forcement of the law as opposed to j either mollification i rpnp.il wm i in the poll of liti"; in the poll of 1U30 this percentage Is 57.7. In Oklahoma, second only Kans;.s in its lovaltv in th. law. the percentage in favor of enforce-; ment in l!iy was 50.4; in 1!3U it i !l r.i, ik in tlie populous in-1 dustrial states we note U gain i wot sentiment which really tic serves to be called astonishing. In 1922 th percentage of voters in New York favoring either modifi cation or repeal was 71.5 already large enough to be impressive; but in 1!30 thin figure has increased to S0.it. in Illinois the f.gure for 1322 was B2.6; in 1!30 it has in creased to 75.5. In Massachusetts the figure for 1322 was 62. 1; In l!t30 It was up to 71. 8. Such figures for individual states are Impressive, but they are real ty no more impressive than the figures for the country as a whole. In 1922 the percentage of voters favoring either modification or re peal, in the aggregate vote through out the nation was fiO.S. In 1930 this percentage is 69.5. Whatever else the Literary VUgest figure! show, unquestionably they show that sentiment against the law Is gaining steadily. Two polls taken by the same magazine eight years apart prove this much, beyond the .shadow of doubt. is 50.9 Men ntinie For this much we have nccurato figures and :i trustworthy bn-sis nf feomp.u ison. The jvi is conjecture. I but it Is worth while to see if tny reasonably accurate guess can bo made as to how well the Digest figures really do represent the opinion of the country. Once more there are softe earlier figures which ure useful. In 1922. the niiine year in which the .Digest took its earlier poll. Ohio, Califor nia and Massachusetts all held of ficial referenda on prohibition questions. These were not mere referenda on abstract issues, re garded by the drys as meaningless straw ballots, but referenda .on questions of changing state en forcement codes, in which the drys were compelled to vote If thy I wished to preserve the status quo. i In these three referenda. 1,454.603 ! people voted against strict enforet I ment of the amendment and the Volstead act: 1,7S1,439 voted 111 : favor of strict enforcement. Th" drys won all three referenda. Their j percentage of the aggregate vote j was ,"i,Vl. The wet percentage of ! the 'aggregate vote was 44.9. t What do we find if we now tuin j to the vote in these three states I" 1 the l.ilerary Digest poll In this same year, 1922? I We find that these states polled! S4.49S wet votes to 56U28 dry. vote, giving the wets a percentage of 60. 8. In the Digest vote the wets polled 60. S per cent. In official votes on real enforcement questions they polled 4 4.9 per cent. There Is a difference In percentages of 15.9. The figures, at least in lheo three Instances, support the con tention of the friends of prohibit ion that there are many dry voters who either do not receive ballots In such a pull as tho Digest pyll or who boycott such a .test of sentiment. We arrive at these conclusions: 1. On the basis of figures whoso! accuracy cannot be challenged be-! cause they rest on a valid rtasis nfj comparison, wet sentiment what-; ever its present strength Is rapid ly gaining ground. In the Literary J Digest figures it has Increased from wu.n it-1 ceiii to u.'.o per cem wn.t- tn eight years. ; 2. If the figures for Ohio, Cati : fornla and Massachusetts In 1922' are used as a standard by whln , ! to measure the difference in sentl- ment as reflected lit straw ballots and In real elections, It Is neces sary to discount tht Literary Di gest figures by a substantial mar gin. This margin was 15.9 In the cases of these threw states In 1922. If this figure is deducted from the wet percentage in the present poll. It w ild bring this percentage down from 69.5 to 53.6 and suggest th it the country Is really not nearly 7'i per cent in favor of changing the present law or repealing it, hut a little more than 50 per cent In fa vor t)f repeal or change. The figures here are necessarily guesswork, but the basis of the test seems fair. 3. Finally, whether wet senti ment he placed ;u 69.5 per cent, or 53.6 per cent, or even at some lower figure, to make allowauoe for every possible factor which might affect the result, it seems perfectly clear that at the vcy minimum at least 40 per cent 'f the people of the country ure op posed to strict enforcement of this law, eleven years after its enae; ment. To enforce the law In the, face of this opposition is patently impossible. MOHCOW. May 31 P) Ko lltical disturbances being blamed, many foreign visitors are cominj to Moscow that the hotels can not house them all and many are being sent to rooms with private fami lies. American engineers, and busi ness men are in the van of the In flux. A MONTAUBAN, France, May 31 iJP) 'Floods which took hundreds of lives here a few weeks ago enterea the Ingres Art Museum, housed in a building erected in 1659, and many valuable works were dam aged. The museum was named for the painter Jean Auguste Ingres, who was born here. 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