MEDFORD MATL TRTBUNE, MEDFORD, OHKOON. SUNDAY, JTNE 1. UYM.
PAGE THREB
M. Y. World's Editorial A
H of Literary Digest's Prohibition Poll
iA P" of nf&vy "Ve n,"""
'imerlcnna on the prohibition que
2. has been completed by the
jyterary Digest, wlh the following
vault"
Those favoring the continunnc
tnl) strict enforcement of the
Fiehteenth Amendment and the
Volstead act: 1,404,098, or 30.5 per
Tliose favoring modification ot
,h. Volstead net to permit light
'imesand beer: 1,399,314. or 29.1
'Wr cent.
f Those favoring repeal of the
Eighteenth Amendment: 1.943,052.
or 40.4 per cent.
The total of those ,who wish
either repeal of the Eighteenth
Amendment or modification of thy
Volstead act to permit light wines
sod beer Is 3,342,366. or Gil. 5 per
cent.
The accuracy of those figures nn
V Index of public opinion has, o;
-rjurse, been challenged. It is said
7 ",e ,,:lUol "-n: out by th-
tricts, who,,. lry serUlO
strongest: that . .
mHhods employed ( ehec-kin hu--
.,, , ' 1 .'"'nt opponents
of the iilw frn, vili,B twice; that
fiends of th, luw. meantime, ig
nore such M, ;is ...eaninKless and
make it th-h- practice U) boveutt
all straw hall.,t.
There Is no precise way r.f prov
ing or ilPi-.vlnB the try tit of any
of these statements. Let i,s aume
that they are true ilnU that l th..
circumstance r ,ile ease the Di
Best noil rannnr nui... ...
sent the opinion of the country ac-
..u..!;. inrie remains one test
which sunnlit .1 vii..n..
and instructive basis of cnmi..-.'.-;-
s..n. This test is ihn taken bv
the Litem ry Digest Hs.Mf in 1Q2Z.
Any criticism which can fairly be
made of the present poll can bo
mad,, with criuul fairness of the
poll in lie: 2. The two polls stand
on a pur. The basis of comparison
between them rests on solid ground
and the reliability of any conclu
sions drawn from such a compari
son cannot be challenged.
In this earlier noli find n
we find now, that the industrial1
stateH in the east and north arei
opposed to the law and that suenj
.III- ..h.. .. .... . .
found chiefly lathe west andVnith.i
There is this difference in the!
present case, however. The figus.'s,
fhow tflut in those sections favor-!
ing the law, dry sentiment is aij
best holding its own; whereas In
those sections opposed to the law. I
wet sentiment has made spectacular)
gains, in Kansas, for example, thai
percentage nf the favoring en
forcement of the law as opposed to j
either mollification i rpnp.il wm i
in the poll of liti"; in the
poll of 1U30 this percentage Is
57.7. In Oklahoma, second only
Kans;.s in its lovaltv in th. law.
the percentage in favor of enforce-;
ment in l!iy was 50.4; in 1!3U it i
!l r.i, ik
in tlie populous in-1
dustrial states we note U gain i
wot sentiment which really tic
serves to be called astonishing. In
1922 th percentage of voters in
New York favoring either modifi
cation or repeal was 71.5 already
large enough to be impressive; but
in 1!30 thin figure has increased
to S0.it. in Illinois the f.gure for
1322 was B2.6; in 1!30 it has in
creased to 75.5. In Massachusetts
the figure for 1322 was 62. 1; In
l!t30 It was up to 71. 8.
Such figures for individual states
are Impressive, but they are real
ty no more impressive than the
figures for the country as a whole.
In 1922 the percentage of voters
favoring either modification or re
peal, in the aggregate vote through
out the nation was fiO.S. In 1930
this percentage is 69.5. Whatever
else the Literary VUgest figure!
show, unquestionably they show
that sentiment against the law Is
gaining steadily. Two polls taken
by the same magazine eight years
apart prove this much, beyond the
.shadow of doubt.
is 50.9
Men ntinie
For this much we have nccurato
figures and :i trustworthy bn-sis nf
feomp.u ison. The jvi is conjecture.
I but it Is worth while to see if tny
reasonably accurate guess can bo
made as to how well the Digest
figures really do represent the
opinion of the country.
Once more there are softe earlier
figures which ure useful. In 1922.
the niiine year in which the .Digest
took its earlier poll. Ohio, Califor
nia and Massachusetts all held of
ficial referenda on prohibition
questions. These were not mere
referenda on abstract issues, re
garded by the drys as meaningless
straw ballots, but referenda .on
questions of changing state en
forcement codes, in which the drys
were compelled to vote If thy
I wished to preserve the status quo.
i In these three referenda. 1,454.603
! people voted against strict enforet
I ment of the amendment and the
Volstead act: 1,7S1,439 voted 111
: favor of strict enforcement. Th"
drys won all three referenda. Their
j percentage of the aggregate vote
j was ,"i,Vl. The wet percentage of
! the 'aggregate vote was 44.9.
t What do we find if we now tuin
j to the vote in these three states I"
1 the l.ilerary Digest poll In this
same year, 1922? I
We find that these states polled!
S4.49S wet votes to 56U28 dry.
vote, giving the wets a percentage
of 60. 8.
In the Digest vote the wets polled
60. S per cent. In official votes on
real enforcement questions they
polled 4 4.9 per cent. There Is a
difference In percentages of 15.9.
The figures, at least in lheo
three Instances, support the con
tention of the friends of prohibit
ion that there are many dry voters
who either do not receive ballots
In such a pull as tho Digest pyll or
who boycott such a .test of sentiment.
We arrive at these conclusions:
1. On the basis of figures whoso!
accuracy cannot be challenged be-!
cause they rest on a valid rtasis nfj
comparison, wet sentiment what-;
ever its present strength Is rapid
ly gaining ground. In the Literary
J Digest figures it has Increased from
wu.n it-1 ceiii to u.'.o per cem wn.t-
tn eight years.
; 2. If the figures for Ohio, Cati
: fornla and Massachusetts In 1922'
are used as a standard by whln ,
! to measure the difference in sentl-
ment as reflected lit straw ballots
and In real elections, It Is neces
sary to discount tht Literary Di
gest figures by a substantial mar
gin. This margin was 15.9 In the
cases of these threw states In 1922.
If this figure is deducted from the
wet percentage in the present poll.
It w ild bring this percentage down
from 69.5 to 53.6 and suggest th it
the country Is really not nearly 7'i
per cent in favor of changing the
present law or repealing it, hut a
little more than 50 per cent In fa
vor t)f repeal or change. The figures
here are necessarily guesswork, but
the basis of the test seems fair.
3. Finally, whether wet senti
ment he placed ;u 69.5 per cent, or
53.6 per cent, or even at some
lower figure, to make allowauoe
for every possible factor which
might affect the result, it seems
perfectly clear that at the vcy
minimum at least 40 per cent 'f
the people of the country ure op
posed to strict enforcement of this
law, eleven years after its enae;
ment. To enforce the law In the, face
of this opposition is patently impossible.
MOHCOW. May 31 P) Ko
lltical disturbances being blamed,
many foreign visitors are cominj
to Moscow that the hotels can not
house them all and many are being
sent to rooms with private fami
lies. American engineers, and busi
ness men are in the van of the In
flux. A
MONTAUBAN, France, May 31
iJP) 'Floods which took hundreds of
lives here a few weeks ago enterea
the Ingres Art Museum, housed in
a building erected in 1659, and
many valuable works were dam
aged. The museum was named for
the painter Jean Auguste Ingres,
who was born here.
ALIC ANTRA, Portugal, May 31
UPl Portugal's fishing fleet of 42)
motor boats and 15,587 sailing ves
sels, manned by 55,000 men, ranks
her among the great fishing coun
tries of the world. The catch last,
year was valued at $10,000,000.
A county traffic bureau with a .
fixpd schedule or fines to expedite
handling of cases of violators has
been proposed at Grand Kapidi:,
Mich.
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