Image provided by: Morrow County Museum; Heppner, OR
About The gazette-times. (Heppner, Or.) 1912-1925 | View Entire Issue (Jan. 25, 1922)
PAGE SIX THE GAZETTE-TIMES, HEPPNKR. OREGON, THURSDAY, JANUARY 25, 1922. -1923. A RE- 122 8av tfc Opvnini of Nw Per iod of Real Tndc Rerlral tni fil ter Ttu.IiM-M H-IU. Tfcroafhoat the Entire Lilte 8U(n. Br ROBERT E. SMITH, Pmldrat Lam mM Trart Co. Bank, Portland. John Moody, national authority on economic, baa published a pamphlet which he titlei 1J22 -1923, A Review and Forecast" which turpaes every thing el we have read along the same lines, and we think we cannot do better than to quote this article! freely. Mr. Moody says: "Looking backward through 1922 and earlier, one is impressed by the fact that the action of the financial markets has been steadily more and more affected by developments and trends in the international situation. A year ago the United States was just beginning to emerpe from the extreme un settlement and depression brought about by the intense deflation move ment which set in during 1P20. The shock of the earlier period was be ginning to tpend its force; business men were slowly emerging from their and effect; and second, because no prophet can forecast 'accidents'. Shortly after the armistice in 1918, most of the business prophets fore saw nothing but depression in 1919: arain it the beginning of 1920 they foresaw nothing but a continuance of the inflation boom for a period of two years or more. Throughout 1922, they have, for the most part, been predict ing that the present business revival is bound to continue another twelve l months, and perhaps a great deal longer. "But ft is noticeable that during the past sixty days some of the 'propheteering' profession are clearly punted. Somehow, their charts are not working right; events are not un folding as they logically should; Wall Street is not responding the way it ought to. Stocks have not been go ing up very fast U at all; bonds have entirely discontinued their long re covery from the low levels of eight een months ago. What is the mat ter? Has economic lew broken down; has Wall Street lot its cunning as a foreshadower of coming events? 'By no means has economic law broken down; by no nuans has Wall Street ?hi ust yek? fai.'tid to reflect real trend? r the business -nd econ omic world. As stated in the opening of this article, the action of the finan cial markets this past year, and very recently, has been a direct (unusual ly direct reflection of fundamental influences. For by far the most fun damental influence of American trade and American economic and social conditions at this time is the unset tled foreign problem. It is still asserted by many people financial difficulties: new efforts at efficiency of production were being ; wh0 live in the Eastern industrial set in motion; wholesale prices, after "nu commercial sections oi me uni their nrecinitate slumn of the nre- 1 ted Mates, that it matters not vious year, were becoming stabilized; labor costs were tending to decline. Altogether, at the opening of 1922, it was safe to say that we were enter ing a new period of real trade re vival and better business health throughout the entire United States. "And the financial markets very concretely reflected these facts. .Steadily throughout the last half of 1921, the strain on the money mar kets relaxed; interest rates contin ued to show greater and greater ease as the months went by; bank re serves rose; loans and discounts dropped and the steady flow of com mercial failures, week by week, indi cated that the weak spots in the gen eral business situation were being slowly corrected. Accompanying these developments, the bond and stock markets in the summer of 1921 began that long upward trend which continued almost uninterruptedly un til the late months of the year just closed. With unerring accuracy, in 1922, the business trend was reflect ed in the security market trend, at least until the autumn months. "But beginning with October, a noticeable change took place in the security markets. Hesitancy first de veloped in the bond market; then pronounced weakness. This was ac companied by hesitancy and then ex treme weakness in the stock market; by a flood of liquidation which car ried stock prices one-third back to the low levels or 1921. In the meantime, most trade reports continued to be as optimistic as ever; captains of in dustry gave out their usual optimis tic interviews; the motor and other luxury industries maintained their activities at high levels; the building boom continued to expand; retail trade seemed at its maximum. "These are the days in which busi ness prophets abound; the business of forecasting business conditions' has become sucb an exact science and has ao captivated the public mind that multitudes of otherwise . sane business men and investors have un bounded faith in barometers and charts which undertake to point out, with unerring accuracy, coming events in business, finance and poli tics a year or more ahead. But the trouble with this mechanical fore casting profession is that about sev en times out of ten it doesn't work. It doesn't work for two reasons: first, America what happens in Europe. But such people do not know their America. They do not know that the industry of agriculture in this land supports more than one-third of our population, and that, normally, it produces more than a third of our total annual wealth production. They do not realiie that unless the Ameri can farmer is reasonably prosperous. the country as a whole cannot for long be prosperous. They do not un derstand the interrelations of agri cultural with other forms of wealth production. They forget that the farming population of over 35,000,000 souls are consumers as well aa pro ducers anti that their purchasing power, at any given time, is the big gest single measure of business health and prosperity throughout the nation. The greatest prosperity for our railroads is seen, not when we happen to have bumper crops, but when the prices received by the farm er for these crops give him adequate purchasing power to consume the ne cessities and luxuries that he wants. Then we see our railroad tonnage in creased and general prosperity spread itself throughout the country. "But the recovery in American bus iness during the year 1922, while marked and genuine to a large de gree, has not yet been fully shared in by the great agricultural industry f the United States. The Anerican farmer was deflated flat in 1920 and 1921; in some sections of the country his position was a desperate one. His liabilities were extended like those of the rest of the country; his credit position underwent an enor mous strain, and he labored under many difficulties in financing him self that were not. at all known in many industrial and commercial , lines. The 'come-back' during 1922 in general business, however, did not reach the farmer simply becaase the farmer's markets (which large iy govern the prices of his products) were limited by the abnormal inter national situation. Only in the cotton-raising industry have we seen American agriculture thus far share to any reasonable extent in the re covery from the depressed conditions of 1920 and 1921. "Up to very recently the average purchasing power of the American farmer figured out at only about 64 per cent of his 1913 purchasing pow- because the prophets so often do not er; while that of union labor in the understand the relationship of caue industrial districts is averaging from i t weekly I income I wtiil von arp I V disabled fT"i t Regular I payments 1 I each I weekrl A A fund, I in time of J II An I assured 1 1 income I All benefits of regular life j insurance, with 1 l several splendid I V additional rd J . features J 4r How are you prepared for ACCIDENT ? -SICKNESS ? -ADVERSITY? f OLD AGE ? r DEATH? You have no right to shun these thoughts until you have made proper provi' sion against them. You can do this through a Perfect Protection Pol icy in West Coast Life. If you are not adequately protected in every re spect, it is your duty to learn just what the Per fect Protection Policy will do for you. The coupon below is your op portunity. Send it today. .est Coast Life INSURANCE COMPANY homc orricc-tut rMMCiKO Bis. V Uft COAJT LWM .NSLRANC8 CO. 60J fcUriut Krwl fen FraocWco QmtlrmrwWlOuntt obiigaUtm on my part, end nu more tnjimnaium. AAA - , Dixit of Birth. ONE OF AMERICAS STRONGEST COMPANIES Hi mi mill mt- - , - .-. -- ... .. r EMERY C. GENTRY, Heppner, Local Agent 1 SH lo 130 per cent of 191S. Obvious ly, the American revival of prosperity is lop-sided so far; it is too unevenly aisinoun-a. it must become more evenly distributed if we an to have confidence in a healthy expansion of business during and after 192S. '"Under normal conditions, with full employment and production. Ameri can afrricultural products must find large and healthy markets outside the United States for from 10 per cent to 25 per cent of their annual totals. Cotton must normally go abroad to the extent of from SO per cent to 60 per cent of the total av erage crop. There, are other basic products which must find larire for eign markets at all times, such as copper and other metals. With these foreign markets completely eliminat ed, depression and privation would prevail from Maine to California; with these foreign markets sharnlv curtailed, we have never in modern times known a real period of pros perity. On the other hand, when foreign nations are buying from us freely, under normal credit conditions, the effect on this country has always been far-reaching and nrofouml What pulled us out of the rnnl phases of the panic of 1893? Heavy buying of American wheat and cotton in the fall of that year. What saved us from impending disaster and chaos of free silver legislation in 1896? A short wheat crop in Russia and Ar gentina, which put up the price of wheat in the United States and start ed the country on the road to a new era of prosperity for agriculture and general industry alike. What caused the tremendous American prosperity during the war period? The enor mous and insistent demand from Eu rope for our products. And what is causing the present uncertainties and the limitations of this current revival and logical rebound from the deflation depression of 1920 and 1921? Obviously, the doubts and uncertain ties regarding the European situa tion and outlook. "Thus, any consideration of Ameri can business conditions; any examin ation of the prospects for the Ameri can farmer; in fact, any intelligent interpretation of the American busi ness or financial trend of the present, or any forecast of probable develop ments for 1923 and after, leads us directly to a study of the European problem. This is why some of ihe professional chart makers and busi ness prophets are finding it so diffi cult to make their formulas fit the facts; why they hesitate and fumble and have so little confidence in their own predictions. The European sit uation is too abnormal to be 'chart ed The foregoing is about one-third of the article, all of which is in tensely interesting, logical in its reasoning and authentic as to its facts. Shell Fish! DO YOU ENJOY SIL'ILL FISH! Oysters Clams Crab Served in any style to your order. Our Sunday dinners are an attraction and should appeal to you. Save the wife extra work Sundays by taking din ner with us just bring the whole family along. Elkhorn Restaurant Heppner KEY KONTEST. YOU ARE INVITED TO BRING IN YOUR KEYS AND TRY THEM IN THE LOCK. LAST DAY FOR TRYING KEYS FEBRUARY 15th Patterson & Son L. Swerdiik and N. Weinstein, rep resentatives of the American Hide & Junk Co., have established an of fice in Heppner, and they announce to the people of Morrow county that they are prepared to buy hides, pelts, wool. furs. iunk. armt ... (wring the best price tha markets anoru. u interested, address them nt Heppner, Box Sll, Oral Henriksen of Cecil was un to Heppner on Tuesday, attending to Dusinesa attain. The weather is still very warm and nice in tha Cecil country, though there waa very slight fall of snow tha first of the week. Mrs. Jos. J. Nys entertained large number of friends at her home in Heppner on last evening, cards oeing the main feature. Refresh ments were served and a delightful evening enjoyed by the guests. Howard Anderson, a leading farmer ct tignt Mile, was in the city on Saturday. LOST A bunch of keys on hexa gon ring; part of ring broken off. Finder please leave at this office. Fords oiv THE UNIVERSAL TRACTOR Cut your farm costs in half with the Fordaon Save money on every acre plowed with the Fordion Multiply the work of your farm took four tocix timet with the Fordon Cut your h in the field over half with the Fordson F.O.B. DETROIT Sm Give youraelf an 8-hour day you can with the Fordton II I This Value Has Never Been Duplicated It takes something besides engineering to furnish a tractor like the Fordson to sell at this astonish ingly low price. That something is owner confidence built on permanent satisfac tion. There are 170,000 Fordson tractors in use wherever Power Farming is being done Fordson is showing superior service. If you are not vising a Fordson now, start right The working ability of this remarkable power plant is cutting farming costs in half in almost every kind of work done, at the draw bar or from the belt Ask 08 for all the details call, write or phone. Latourell Auto Co. Authorized Ford, Fordson and Lincoln Sales and Service HttTOER -:- Main Street -: Come in and see our fine assortment of these Palmer Coats THOMSON BROTHERS OREGON REMNANTS AND BARGAINS of all kinds AT Minor & Company am iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii iiiiiiiiiiiiii iiiiiiiiiiiiii mm mil i iiiiiiitimiiiimiiie Harwood's DIAMONDS -:- WATCHES -:- JEWELRY -:- PIANOS PHONOGRAPHS -:- RECORDS -:- SHEET MUSIC j I. 0. O. F. Ruildinjf, Heppner 2 niiiimiimimmimim iimiiiimiimmm u iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiMiiiimmmiimiiiiiimiiiiiimi; STAR THEATER Friday, Jan. 26: Miss Dupont in "A WONDERFUL WIFE," and last episode of BUFFALO BILL Saturday, January 27th Show how the Buck sheds his Antlers and grows new ones Charles Urban presents Ik FOUR SEASONS Recorded by Raymond LDitmar for IGncto Company of America Inc. THE FOUR SEA SONS, as recorded by Raymond L. Dit mar, is exactly what its title im plies. It is a feature photoplaly in four reels that tells the year's story of na ture. Also WILL ROGERS in The Ropin' Fool' This ia a distinct comedy novolty and shows Rogers at his favorite sport, toss ing the krlot. He ia world's champion roper, as he proves in this amaziig ex position of his skill. Also MOVIE CHATS Sunday and Monday, Jan. 28 and 29 JOHNNY HINES in "BURN 'EM UP BARNES" A real honest-to-goodness, thrilling, automobile racing, comedy, that will make you laugh and hod your breath at the same time. If anyone has slandered your character, ruffled your disposition, or dissected your immortal soul, here is a picture you want to see. J ust a comedy, but a good one. It will cheer you up and prove to you that hell was invented only for those who think they need it. Aso FELIX "Turns the Tide" Wednesday and Thurs day, Jan. 31 and Feb. 1 Mabel NORMAN D Mack SENNETTS OLLYO A drama of youth and optimism. Wit, Tears, Love, Romance, Pageant ry, Adventure, Thrills. Two thousand people in the cast. See full description of these pictures in our Illustrated News