PAGE SIX
THE GAZETTE-TIMES, HEPPNKR. OREGON, THURSDAY, JANUARY 25, 1922.
-1923. A RE-
122 8av tfc Opvnini of Nw Per
iod of Real Tndc Rerlral tni fil
ter Ttu.IiM-M H-IU. Tfcroafhoat
the Entire Lilte 8U(n.
Br ROBERT E. SMITH, Pmldrat Lam
mM Trart Co. Bank, Portland.
John Moody, national authority on
economic, baa published a pamphlet
which he titlei 1J22 -1923, A Review
and Forecast" which turpaes every
thing el we have read along the
same lines, and we think we cannot
do better than to quote this article!
freely. Mr. Moody says:
"Looking backward through 1922
and earlier, one is impressed by the
fact that the action of the financial
markets has been steadily more and
more affected by developments and
trends in the international situation.
A year ago the United States was just
beginning to emerpe from the extreme
un settlement and depression brought
about by the intense deflation move
ment which set in during 1P20. The
shock of the earlier period was be
ginning to tpend its force; business
men were slowly emerging from their
and effect; and second, because no
prophet can forecast 'accidents'.
Shortly after the armistice in 1918,
most of the business prophets fore
saw nothing but depression in 1919:
arain it the beginning of 1920 they
foresaw nothing but a continuance of
the inflation boom for a period of two
years or more. Throughout 1922, they
have, for the most part, been predict
ing that the present business revival
is bound to continue another twelve
l months, and perhaps a great deal
longer.
"But ft is noticeable that during
the past sixty days some of the
'propheteering' profession are clearly
punted. Somehow, their charts are
not working right; events are not un
folding as they logically should; Wall
Street is not responding the way it
ought to. Stocks have not been go
ing up very fast U at all; bonds have
entirely discontinued their long re
covery from the low levels of eight
een months ago. What is the mat
ter? Has economic lew broken down;
has Wall Street lot its cunning as
a foreshadower of coming events?
'By no means has economic law
broken down; by no nuans has Wall
Street ?hi ust yek? fai.'tid to reflect
real trend? r the business -nd econ
omic world. As stated in the opening
of this article, the action of the finan
cial markets this past year, and very
recently, has been a direct (unusual
ly direct reflection of fundamental
influences. For by far the most fun
damental influence of American trade
and American economic and social
conditions at this time is the unset
tled foreign problem.
It is still asserted by many people
financial difficulties: new efforts at
efficiency of production were being ; wh0 live in the Eastern industrial
set in motion; wholesale prices, after "nu commercial sections oi me uni
their nrecinitate slumn of the nre- 1 ted Mates, that it matters not
vious year, were becoming stabilized;
labor costs were tending to decline.
Altogether, at the opening of 1922, it
was safe to say that we were enter
ing a new period of real trade re
vival and better business health
throughout the entire United States.
"And the financial markets very
concretely reflected these facts.
.Steadily throughout the last half of
1921, the strain on the money mar
kets relaxed; interest rates contin
ued to show greater and greater ease
as the months went by; bank re
serves rose; loans and discounts
dropped and the steady flow of com
mercial failures, week by week, indi
cated that the weak spots in the gen
eral business situation were being
slowly corrected. Accompanying
these developments, the bond and
stock markets in the summer of 1921
began that long upward trend which
continued almost uninterruptedly un
til the late months of the year just
closed. With unerring accuracy, in
1922, the business trend was reflect
ed in the security market trend, at
least until the autumn months.
"But beginning with October, a
noticeable change took place in the
security markets. Hesitancy first de
veloped in the bond market; then
pronounced weakness. This was ac
companied by hesitancy and then ex
treme weakness in the stock market;
by a flood of liquidation which car
ried stock prices one-third back to the
low levels or 1921. In the meantime,
most trade reports continued to be as
optimistic as ever; captains of in
dustry gave out their usual optimis
tic interviews; the motor and other
luxury industries maintained their
activities at high levels; the building
boom continued to expand; retail
trade seemed at its maximum.
"These are the days in which busi
ness prophets abound; the business
of forecasting business conditions'
has become sucb an exact science and
has ao captivated the public mind
that multitudes of otherwise . sane
business men and investors have un
bounded faith in barometers and
charts which undertake to point out,
with unerring accuracy, coming
events in business, finance and poli
tics a year or more ahead. But the
trouble with this mechanical fore
casting profession is that about sev
en times out of ten it doesn't work.
It doesn't work for two reasons: first,
America what happens in Europe.
But such people do not know their
America. They do not know that the
industry of agriculture in this land
supports more than one-third of our
population, and that, normally, it
produces more than a third of our
total annual wealth production. They
do not realiie that unless the Ameri
can farmer is reasonably prosperous.
the country as a whole cannot for
long be prosperous. They do not un
derstand the interrelations of agri
cultural with other forms of wealth
production. They forget that the
farming population of over 35,000,000
souls are consumers as well aa pro
ducers anti that their purchasing
power, at any given time, is the big
gest single measure of business
health and prosperity throughout the
nation. The greatest prosperity for
our railroads is seen, not when we
happen to have bumper crops, but
when the prices received by the farm
er for these crops give him adequate
purchasing power to consume the ne
cessities and luxuries that he wants.
Then we see our railroad tonnage in
creased and general prosperity spread
itself throughout the country.
"But the recovery in American bus
iness during the year 1922, while
marked and genuine to a large de
gree, has not yet been fully shared
in by the great agricultural industry
f the United States. The Anerican
farmer was deflated flat in 1920 and
1921; in some sections of the country
his position was a desperate one.
His liabilities were extended like
those of the rest of the country; his
credit position underwent an enor
mous strain, and he labored under
many difficulties in financing him
self that were not. at all known in
many industrial and commercial ,
lines. The 'come-back' during 1922
in general business, however, did not
reach the farmer simply becaase the
farmer's markets (which large iy
govern the prices of his products)
were limited by the abnormal inter
national situation. Only in the cotton-raising
industry have we seen
American agriculture thus far share
to any reasonable extent in the re
covery from the depressed conditions
of 1920 and 1921.
"Up to very recently the average
purchasing power of the American
farmer figured out at only about 64
per cent of his 1913 purchasing pow-
because the prophets so often do not er; while that of union labor in the
understand the relationship of caue industrial districts is averaging from
i t weekly
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I wtiil von arp I
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t Regular
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weekrl
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fund,
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An
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All benefits
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r
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until you have
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You can do this through
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If you are not adequately
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homc orricc-tut rMMCiKO
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60J fcUriut Krwl fen FraocWco
QmtlrmrwWlOuntt obiigaUtm on my part,
end nu more tnjimnaium.
AAA - ,
Dixit of Birth.
ONE OF AMERICAS STRONGEST COMPANIES
Hi mi mill mt- - , - .-. -- ... .. r
EMERY C. GENTRY, Heppner, Local Agent 1
SH lo 130 per cent of 191S. Obvious
ly, the American revival of prosperity
is lop-sided so far; it is too unevenly
aisinoun-a. it must become more
evenly distributed if we an to have
confidence in a healthy expansion of
business during and after 192S.
'"Under normal conditions, with full
employment and production. Ameri
can afrricultural products must find
large and healthy markets outside
the United States for from 10 per
cent to 25 per cent of their annual
totals. Cotton must normally go
abroad to the extent of from SO per
cent to 60 per cent of the total av
erage crop. There, are other basic
products which must find larire for
eign markets at all times, such as
copper and other metals. With these
foreign markets completely eliminat
ed, depression and privation would
prevail from Maine to California;
with these foreign markets sharnlv
curtailed, we have never in modern
times known a real period of pros
perity.
On the other hand, when foreign
nations are buying from us freely,
under normal credit conditions, the
effect on this country has always
been far-reaching and nrofouml
What pulled us out of the rnnl
phases of the panic of 1893? Heavy
buying of American wheat and cotton
in the fall of that year. What saved
us from impending disaster and chaos
of free silver legislation in 1896? A
short wheat crop in Russia and Ar
gentina, which put up the price of
wheat in the United States and start
ed the country on the road to a new
era of prosperity for agriculture and
general industry alike. What caused
the tremendous American prosperity
during the war period? The enor
mous and insistent demand from Eu
rope for our products. And what
is causing the present uncertainties
and the limitations of this current
revival and logical rebound from the
deflation depression of 1920 and 1921?
Obviously, the doubts and uncertain
ties regarding the European situa
tion and outlook.
"Thus, any consideration of Ameri
can business conditions; any examin
ation of the prospects for the Ameri
can farmer; in fact, any intelligent
interpretation of the American busi
ness or financial trend of the present,
or any forecast of probable develop
ments for 1923 and after, leads us
directly to a study of the European
problem. This is why some of ihe
professional chart makers and busi
ness prophets are finding it so diffi
cult to make their formulas fit the
facts; why they hesitate and fumble
and have so little confidence in their
own predictions. The European sit
uation is too abnormal to be 'chart
ed The foregoing is about one-third
of the article, all of which is in
tensely interesting, logical in its
reasoning and authentic as to its
facts.
Shell Fish!
DO YOU ENJOY SIL'ILL
FISH!
Oysters
Clams
Crab
Served in any style to
your order.
Our Sunday dinners are an
attraction and should appeal
to you. Save the wife extra
work Sundays by taking din
ner with us just bring the
whole family along.
Elkhorn Restaurant
Heppner
KEY KONTEST.
YOU ARE INVITED TO BRING IN
YOUR KEYS AND TRY THEM
IN THE LOCK.
LAST DAY FOR TRYING KEYS
FEBRUARY 15th
Patterson & Son
L. Swerdiik and N. Weinstein, rep
resentatives of the American Hide
& Junk Co., have established an of
fice in Heppner, and they announce
to the people of Morrow county that
they are prepared to buy hides, pelts,
wool. furs. iunk. armt ...
(wring the best price tha markets
anoru. u interested, address them
nt Heppner, Box Sll,
Oral Henriksen of Cecil was un
to Heppner on Tuesday, attending
to Dusinesa attain. The weather is
still very warm and nice in tha Cecil
country, though there waa very
slight fall of snow tha first of the
week.
Mrs. Jos. J. Nys entertained
large number of friends at her home
in Heppner on last evening, cards
oeing the main feature. Refresh
ments were served and a delightful
evening enjoyed by the guests.
Howard Anderson, a leading farmer
ct tignt Mile, was in the city on Saturday.
LOST A bunch of keys on hexa
gon ring; part of ring broken off.
Finder please leave at this office.
Fords oiv
THE UNIVERSAL TRACTOR
Cut your
farm
costs in
half with
the Fordaon
Save
money
on every acre
plowed
with the
Fordion
Multiply
the work of
your farm
took
four tocix
timet
with the
Fordon
Cut your h
in the field
over half
with
the Fordson
F.O.B. DETROIT Sm
Give youraelf
an 8-hour
day
you can with
the
Fordton
II
I
This Value
Has Never
Been
Duplicated
It takes something besides
engineering to furnish a
tractor like the Fordson
to sell at this astonish
ingly low price.
That something is owner
confidence built on permanent satisfac
tion. There are 170,000 Fordson tractors
in use wherever Power Farming is being
done Fordson is showing superior service.
If you are not vising a Fordson now, start right
The working ability of this remarkable power
plant is cutting farming costs in half in almost
every kind of work done, at the draw bar
or from the belt
Ask 08 for all the details call, write or phone.
Latourell Auto Co.
Authorized Ford, Fordson and Lincoln
Sales and Service
HttTOER -:- Main Street -:
Come in and see our fine assortment of these
Palmer Coats
THOMSON BROTHERS
OREGON
REMNANTS
AND
BARGAINS
of all kinds
AT
Minor & Company
am iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii iiiiiiiiiiiiii iiiiiiiiiiiiii mm mil i iiiiiiitimiiiimiiie
Harwood's
DIAMONDS -:- WATCHES -:- JEWELRY -:- PIANOS
PHONOGRAPHS -:- RECORDS -:- SHEET MUSIC j
I. 0. O. F. Ruildinjf, Heppner 2
niiiimiimimmimim iimiiiimiimmm u iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiMiiiimmmiimiiiiiimiiiiiimi;
STAR THEATER
Friday, Jan. 26: Miss Dupont in "A WONDERFUL WIFE," and
last episode of BUFFALO BILL
Saturday, January 27th
Show how the Buck
sheds his Antlers and
grows new ones
Charles Urban
presents
Ik
FOUR
SEASONS
Recorded by Raymond LDitmar
for IGncto Company of America Inc.
THE FOUR SEA
SONS, as recorded
by Raymond L. Dit
mar, is exactly
what its title im
plies. It is a feature
photoplaly in four
reels that tells the
year's story of na
ture. Also
WILL ROGERS
in
The Ropin' Fool'
This ia a distinct comedy
novolty and shows Rogers
at his favorite sport, toss
ing the krlot. He ia world's
champion roper, as he
proves in this amaziig ex
position of his skill.
Also
MOVIE CHATS
Sunday and Monday, Jan. 28 and 29
JOHNNY HINES in
"BURN 'EM UP BARNES"
A real honest-to-goodness, thrilling,
automobile racing, comedy, that will
make you laugh and hod your breath at
the same time.
If anyone has slandered your character,
ruffled your disposition, or dissected your
immortal soul, here is a picture you want
to see. J ust a comedy, but a good one. It
will cheer you up and prove to you that
hell was invented only for those who
think they need it.
Aso FELIX "Turns the Tide"
Wednesday and Thurs
day, Jan. 31 and Feb. 1
Mabel
NORMAN D
Mack
SENNETTS
OLLYO
A drama of youth and
optimism. Wit, Tears,
Love, Romance, Pageant
ry, Adventure, Thrills.
Two thousand people in
the cast.
See full description of these pictures in our Illustrated News