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Wallowa County Chieftain News wallowa.com October 17, 2018 B9 Clackamas County goes, so goes Oregon? By Aubrey Wieber and Paris Achen For the Chieftain Gov. Kate Brown and Rep. Knute Buehler have tra- versed the state in search of swing voters to court. They have debated public pension reform, health care, educa- tion and gun rights. They have coined catch phrases to distill their messages. In the final days of the campaign, the race is likely to be won or lost in Clack- amas County, according to pollsters, campaign officials and political consultants. The county, which includes Ore- gon City, Lake Oswego and Tualatin, has gotten more lib- eral over the past few years, and local Democrats have ramped up voter outreach this year. While Portland is likely far too blue for Buehler to swing his way, analysts say the greater metro area remains the main battleground. “There’s no doubt Kate Brown will win Washington County,” said Kevin Looper, an adviser to Brown’s cam- paign. “I think Clackamas County is up for grabs. The margin by which Kate Brown wins Washington, and wins or loses Clackamas, will resem- ble the margin in which she wins the state.” The Oregon Republi- can Party won’t yet concede Washington County. The county — teeming with independent and non- affiliated voters — could be swayed by Buehler, who recently snagged the endorse- ment of Oregon’s largest newspaper, The Oregonian. “Kate Brown is an incum- bent almost four years in office, and there is a raft of problems — crises that could devour the state budget and is already doing so in the case of the PERS crisis,” said Kevn Kate Brown … has shown no urgency to fix things and ... that message is starting to reach people.” — Kevn Hoar Communications director, Oregon GOP Hoar, communications direc- tor for the Oregon GOP. “She has shown no urgency to fix things and ... that message is starting to reach people.” Jordan Conger, Buehler’s policy director, declined to comment on the campaign’s internal strategy or specifi- cally on Clackamas County but would say that Buehler has been spending the major- ity of his time in Clackamas, Multnomah and Washington counties, where the majority of voters reside. “There are a lot of voters who are not traditional and a lot of voters who maybe in the past voted Democratic that are very interested in new leadership and our message is resonating with them on issues he’s campaigning on like homelessness and educa- tion,” Conger said. So what are voters in those areas concerned about? John Horvick of indepen- dent political research firm DHM Research said they are directly afflicted by traffic, homelessness and the lack of affordable housing. Republi- cans in those areas are inter- ested in the same issues as in Marion or Jackson counties: taxes and government spend- ing, he said. But Horvick pointed out that Buehler has sidestepped the national pattern of riling the Republican base. He’s not talking about abortion, immi- gration or gun rights to the degree that he’s talking about Brown and her perceived fail- ures on public pensions and education. He’s going after Democratic voters who could be open to change. “His campaign is more orga- nized around persuading per- suadable voters,” Horvick said. The strategy appeared to work through late September as polls showed the race tied. However, a poll released Oct. 15 by Riley Research Associ- ates for KGW showed Brown with a 49 to 45 edge with a margin of error of five points. Peter Toll, the chairman of the campaign committee for the Clackamas County Democratic Party, said Democrats moving from Multnomah County in search of more affordable hous- ing have dramatically changed the political demographics over the past few years. Milwaukie specifically has become a lib- eral enclave, he said. Democrats are mostly interested in health care, edu- cation and enhanced ser- vices. However, Toll and his 600 volunteers knocking on Clackamas County doors are engaging primarily with Dem- ocrats, he said. He didn’t have a good sense of what potential Republican voters wanted. Hoar said some indepen- dent and nonaffiliated vot- ers and even some Democrats in Clackamas County want someone like Buehler. “Clackamas County is a battleground. 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