Wallowa County Chieftain
News
wallowa.com
October 17, 2018
B9
Clackamas County goes, so goes Oregon?
By Aubrey Wieber and
Paris Achen
For the Chieftain
Gov. Kate Brown and
Rep. Knute Buehler have tra-
versed the state in search of
swing voters to court. They
have debated public pension
reform, health care, educa-
tion and gun rights. They have
coined catch phrases to distill
their messages.
In the final days of the
campaign, the race is likely
to be won or lost in Clack-
amas County, according to
pollsters, campaign officials
and political consultants. The
county, which includes Ore-
gon City, Lake Oswego and
Tualatin, has gotten more lib-
eral over the past few years,
and local Democrats have
ramped up voter outreach this
year.
While Portland is likely
far too blue for Buehler to
swing his way, analysts say
the greater metro area remains
the main battleground.
“There’s no doubt Kate
Brown will win Washington
County,” said Kevin Looper,
an adviser to Brown’s cam-
paign. “I think Clackamas
County is up for grabs. The
margin by which Kate Brown
wins Washington, and wins or
loses Clackamas, will resem-
ble the margin in which she
wins the state.”
The Oregon Republi-
can Party won’t yet concede
Washington County.
The county — teeming
with independent and non-
affiliated voters — could
be swayed by Buehler, who
recently snagged the endorse-
ment of Oregon’s largest
newspaper, The Oregonian.
“Kate Brown is an incum-
bent almost four years in
office, and there is a raft of
problems — crises that could
devour the state budget and is
already doing so in the case of
the PERS crisis,” said Kevn
Kate Brown … has shown no urgency to
fix things and ... that message is starting
to reach people.”
— Kevn Hoar
Communications director, Oregon GOP
Hoar, communications direc-
tor for the Oregon GOP. “She
has shown no urgency to fix
things and ... that message is
starting to reach people.”
Jordan Conger, Buehler’s
policy director, declined to
comment on the campaign’s
internal strategy or specifi-
cally on Clackamas County
but would say that Buehler
has been spending the major-
ity of his time in Clackamas,
Multnomah and Washington
counties, where the majority
of voters reside.
“There are a lot of voters
who are not traditional and a
lot of voters who maybe in
the past voted Democratic
that are very interested in new
leadership and our message
is resonating with them on
issues he’s campaigning on
like homelessness and educa-
tion,” Conger said.
So what are voters in those
areas concerned about?
John Horvick of indepen-
dent political research firm
DHM Research said they are
directly afflicted by traffic,
homelessness and the lack of
affordable housing. Republi-
cans in those areas are inter-
ested in the same issues as in
Marion or Jackson counties:
taxes and government spend-
ing, he said.
But Horvick pointed out
that Buehler has sidestepped
the national pattern of riling
the Republican base. He’s not
talking about abortion, immi-
gration or gun rights to the
degree that he’s talking about
Brown and her perceived fail-
ures on public pensions and
education. He’s going after
Democratic voters who could
be open to change.
“His campaign is more orga-
nized around persuading per-
suadable voters,” Horvick said.
The strategy appeared to
work through late September
as polls showed the race tied.
However, a poll released Oct.
15 by Riley Research Associ-
ates for KGW showed Brown
with a 49 to 45 edge with a
margin of error of five points.
Peter Toll, the chairman of
the campaign committee for the
Clackamas County Democratic
Party, said Democrats moving
from Multnomah County in
search of more affordable hous-
ing have dramatically changed
the political demographics over
the past few years. Milwaukie
specifically has become a lib-
eral enclave, he said.
Democrats are mostly
interested in health care, edu-
cation and enhanced ser-
vices. However, Toll and his
600 volunteers knocking on
Clackamas County doors are
engaging primarily with Dem-
ocrats, he said. He didn’t have
a good sense of what potential
Republican voters wanted.
Hoar said some indepen-
dent and nonaffiliated vot-
ers and even some Democrats
in Clackamas County want
someone like Buehler.
“Clackamas County is
a battleground. There is no
doubt that Republicans tend
to do better there … but both
(Clackamas and Washington
counties) have a lot of vot-
ers that sit right in Knute’s
wheelhouse,” he said. “We
know that area is rich with the
kind of voters that Knute is
attracting.”
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