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About East Oregonian : E.O. (Pendleton, OR) 1888-current | View Entire Issue (Oct. 13, 2018)
NORTHWEST East Oregonian Page 2A Saturday, October 13, 2018 State forecast projects significant drop in imprisonment By AUBREY WIEBER Capital Bureau The incarceration rate in Oregon’s prison system is projected to fall 15 per- cent over the next decade due in large part to sentenc- ing reform. The projection, done by the Oregon Department of Administrative Ser- vices and published Oct. 1, found that recent leg- islation lowering manda- tory minimums for crimes like theft and identity theft is the driving force behind the reduction. The consti- tutionality of that reform is being reviewed by the Ore- gon Supreme Court. “That’s really the sea shift in the last 22 years,” Michael Kennedy, a state economist who authored the forecast, said of the reform. “There was a big move to be harder on crime, and then what we’ve seen in the last 10 years is sort of a moving away from that.” According to the report, Oregon holds 14,875 inmates in prisons. By 2028, that is projected to be 14,356, a 3.5 percent decline. That might not seem huge, but the state’s general population is expected to increase by 13 percent in that time frame. Staff photo by E.J. Harris Inmates eat lunch in the cafeteria at Eastern Oregon Correctional Institution in Pendleton on June 27. The new forecast shows incarceration dropping lower than previously pro- jected. In the newest fore- cast, the population will remain level a little longer than previously thought, but will then go into a steep decline for several years until it starts to slowly climb back up around 2023 due to an increase in at-risk populations. The noted decline is credited to recent legis- lation, House Bill 3078, which amends Measure 57, a mandatory minimum sen- Forecast for Pendleton Area TODAY SUNDAY MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY Plenty of sunshine Plenty of sunshine Sunshine Plenty of sun Mostly sunny 60° 32° 61° 33° PENDLETON TEMPERATURE FORECAST 64° 34° 65° 36° 66° 40° HERMISTON TEMPERATURE FORECAST 65° 29° 63° 30° 65° 33° 66° 35° OREGON FORECAST 68° 35° ALMANAC Shown is today’s weather. Temperatures are today’s highs and tonight’s lows. PENDLETON through 3 p.m. yest. HIGH LOW TEMP. Seattle Olympia 66/41 56/28 66/32 Longview Kennewick Walla Walla 59/35 Lewiston 67/37 65/29 Astoria 66/44 Pullman Yakima 64/30 63/33 61/32 Portland Hermiston 70/46 The Dalles 65/29 Salem Corvallis 73/35 Yesterday Normals Records La Grande 56/26 PRECIPITATION John Day Eugene Bend 74/34 57/24 56/28 Ontario 65/31 Caldwell Burns 70° 34° 67° 39° 84° (1952) 20° (2008) 24 hours ending 3 p.m. Month to date Normal month to date Year to date Last year to date Normal year to date Albany 73/38 0.00" 1.14" 0.20" 6.29" 7.18" 6.76" WINDS (in mph) 63/30 58/18 0.00" 1.39" 0.38" 7.91" 12.54" 9.32" through 3 p.m. yest. HIGH LOW TEMP. Pendleton 54/23 73/41 24 hours ending 3 p.m. Month to date Normal month to date Year to date Last year to date Normal year to date HERMISTON Enterprise 60/32 68/35 67° 38° 65° 41° 85° (1895) 24° (2008) PRECIPITATION Moses Lake 62/33 Aberdeen 56/30 62/36 Tacoma Yesterday Normals Records Spokane Wenatchee 63/43 Today Boardman Pendleton Medford 80/38 Sun. NNE 6-12 NNW 6-12 NE 4-8 NE 4-8 SUN AND MOON Klamath Falls 67/27 Forecasts and graphics provided by AccuWeather, Inc. ©2018 Sunrise today Sunset tonight Moonrise today Moonset today 7:09 a.m. 6:13 p.m. 11:57 a.m. 9:23 p.m. First Full Last New Oct 16 Oct 24 Oct 31 Nov 7 NATIONAL EXTREMES Yesterday’s National Extremes: (for the 48 contiguous states) High 92° in Zapata, Texas Low 9° in Grand Forks, N.D. NATIONAL WEATHER TODAY Shown are noon positions of weather systems and precipitation. Temperature bands are highs for the day. -10s -0s 0s showers t-storms 10s rain 20s flurries 30s snow 40s ice 50s cold front — Founded Oct. 16, 1875 — 211 S.E. Byers Ave., Pendleton 541-276-2211 333 E. Main St., Hermiston 541-567-6211 Office hours: Monday through Friday, 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Closed major holidays www.eastoregonian.com To subscribe, call 1-800-522-0255 or go online to www.eastoregonian.com and click on ‘Subscribe’ East Oregonian (USPS 164-980) is published daily except Sunday, Monday and postal holidays, by the EO Media Group, 211 S.E. Byers Ave. Pendleton, OR 97801. Periodicals postage paid at Pendleton, OR. Postmaster: send address changes to East Oregonian, 211 S.E. Byers Ave. Pendleton, OR 97801. Copyright © 2018, EO Media Group 60s 70s 80s 90s 100s warm front stationary front high 110s low tencing law for property crimes approved by voters in 2008. The history of how to sentence for property crimes since 2008 gets messy. Under Measure 57, the sentence for theft was bumped from 13 months to 18 months. Seven months after law took effect, legisla- tors voted with a two-thirds majority to push the pre- sumptive sentence back to 13 months, but that sunset in 2012. In 2017, the Legislature voted to lower the sentence back to 13 months. A court challenge ensued, contending that the Oregon Constitution requires a two-thirds major- ity of legislators to vote for reduced criminal sentences. The Supreme Court is now deciding the matter in a rul- ing expected next year. Kennedy said if the court finds the reduction in sen- tences is unconstitutional, it’s unclear if just those portions of the law will be erased, or if the entire piece of legislation will disap- pear. That distinction would impact the prison popula- tion, he said. Buehler criticizes proposed U.S. rule changes on immigrants PORTLAND (AP) — State Rep. Knute Buehler, seeking middle ground on immigration issues in his race for governor of Ore- gon, criticized the Trump administration for pur- suing rule changes that could hurt health care for immigrants. Oregon Public Broad- casting reports that Bue- hler on Thursday blasted a proposed rule from the Department of Homeland Security. It would make it harder for immigrants to win permanent residency in the U.S. if they use Medicaid and other public health programs. “Access to care is criti- cal to living a healthy and fulfilled life,” Buehler said in a statement. “We should not be discouraging access to health care, particularly for children, as a condition for citizenship. This does not reflect Oregon’s values and it is not the message we should be sending to our immigrant communities.” Subscriber services: For mail delivery, online access, vacation stops or delivery concerns call 1-800-522-0255 ext. 1 SUBSCRIPTION RATES Local home delivery Savings off cover price EZPay $14.50 41 percent 52 weeks $173.67 41 percent 26 weeks $91.86 38 percent 13 weeks $47.77 36 percent *EZ Pay = one-year rate with a monthly credit or debit card/check charge Single copy price: $1 Tuesday through Friday, $1.50 Saturday Circulation Manager: Bonny Tuller, 541-966-0828 Following the measure, the incarceration rate of women rose. Looking for- ward, the female popula- tion is expected to spike over the next year to 1,300 inmates, before taking a plunge to just under 1,150. The population is expected to level out around 2022 and stay well under 1,200 through 2028. Over- all, the female population is projected to see an 8 per- cent decline over 10 years due to the relaxing of prop- erty crime sentences. Legislators also approved putting some offenders back into the community 30 days before their sentence was up. However, prisons rarely exercised the authority. The 2017 law increased that time to 120 days, and pris- ons were instructed to fol- low. The goal was to reduce the growing prison popula- tion so the state wouldn’t have to build another prison, Kennedy said. That tweak has already shown to be fruitful for the prison system, as the latest forecast shows the system is using 45 fewer beds than expected. Since 2017, around 70 percent of eligible inmates have been released early, Kennedy said. That’s coupled with the justice reinvestment pro- gram, which gives coun- ties grant money to fund for community-based pro- grams and services to be used as an alternative to incarceration. Kennedy’s forecast con- siders all current state laws. But it doesn’t anticipate new ones. To account for that, Kennedy looked at the historical variance in the prison population, which is influenced by new laws. With that information, he determined there is a 95 percent probability that the actual population in 2028 will differ from the forecast by up to 11 percent. Kennedy said research shows large sentences don’t provide much deterrent, especially for heat-of-the moment crimes, which are often not repeat-offender crimes, such as theft or drug crimes. “These minimum man- datories only have an effect through incapacitation,” he said, adding it’s also a really expensive way to fight crime. But Kennedy also said he doesn’t foresee massive criminal justice reform in Oregon. Much of that has already taken place, he said. The one major law left is Measure 11, Oregon’s sentencing law for violent crimes. Kennedy said the 2017 legislation was basically the result of a bargain between the Legislature and Oregon district attorneys, judges and sheriffs. The results of the negotiation, he said, was that Measure 11 won’t be touched. “Prosecutors love Mea- sure 11,” he said. Kennedy said prosecu- tors use Measure 11’s long sentences as leverage to get defendants to take plea deals. ——— Reporter Aubrey Wie- ber: aubrey@salemre- porter.com or 503-575- 1251. He is a reporter for Salem Reporter work- ing with the Oregon Cap- ital Bureau, a collabora- tion of the Pamplin Media Group, EO Media Group, and Salem Reporter. Buehler, the Republi- can gubernatorial candi- date, has been facing heat from immigration advo- cates upset at his support for Measure 105. That ini- tiative would repeal Ore- gon’s three-decade-old sanctuary law, which limits state and local police coop- eration with federal immi- gration authorities. Democratic Gov. Kate Brown has criticized Bue- hler for supporting the measure, which she argues could lead to racial profil- ing and discourage immi- grants from reporting crimes to the police. Buehler himself has played down his support for Measure 105, saying at a debate earlier this week that the initiative is “not something I’m campaign- ing on.” He added that he dif- fered with the Trump administration on several immigration policies. He said he backed protections for immigrants brought ADVERTISING Regional Publisher and Revenue Director: Christopher Rush 541-278-2669 • crush@eomediagroup.com Advertising Services: Grace Bubar 541-276-2214 • gbubar@eastoregonian.com Multimedia Consultants: • Kimberly Macias 541-278-2683 • kmacias@eastoregonian.com • Jeanne Jewett 541-564-4531 • jjewett@eastoregonian.com • Dayle Stinson 541-278-2670 • dstinson@eastoregonian.com • Angela Treadwell 541-966-0827 • atreadwell@eastoregonian.com • Audra Workman 541-564-4538 • aworkman@eastoregonian.com here illegally as children, and opposed the adminis- tration’s policy of separat- ing children from parents seeking to cross the border. Brown’s campaign spokesman, Christian Gas- ton, charged in a statement that Buehler is “twisting himself in knots trying to cover up his record” in the Legislature on health and immigration issues. Among other things, he cited Buehler’s vote against a 2017 bill aimed at providing health cover- age to all children, includ- ing undocumented immi- grants. Buehler said at the time that he couldn’t jus- tify the added cost of the legislation. Corrections The East Oregonian works hard to be accu- rate and sincerely regrets any errors. If you notice a mistake in the paper, please call 541-966- 0818. 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