NORTHWEST
East Oregonian
Page 2A
Saturday, October 13, 2018
State forecast projects significant drop in imprisonment
By AUBREY WIEBER
Capital Bureau
The incarceration rate
in Oregon’s prison system
is projected to fall 15 per-
cent over the next decade
due in large part to sentenc-
ing reform.
The projection, done
by the Oregon Department
of Administrative Ser-
vices and published Oct.
1, found that recent leg-
islation lowering manda-
tory minimums for crimes
like theft and identity theft
is the driving force behind
the reduction. The consti-
tutionality of that reform is
being reviewed by the Ore-
gon Supreme Court.
“That’s really the sea
shift in the last 22 years,”
Michael Kennedy, a state
economist who authored
the forecast, said of the
reform. “There was a big
move to be harder on
crime, and then what we’ve
seen in the last 10 years is
sort of a moving away from
that.”
According to the report,
Oregon
holds
14,875
inmates in prisons. By
2028, that is projected to
be 14,356, a 3.5 percent
decline. That might not
seem huge, but the state’s
general
population
is
expected to increase by 13
percent in that time frame.
Staff photo by E.J. Harris
Inmates eat lunch in the cafeteria at Eastern Oregon Correctional Institution in Pendleton on June 27.
The new forecast shows
incarceration
dropping
lower than previously pro-
jected. In the newest fore-
cast, the population will
remain level a little longer
than previously thought,
but will then go into a steep
decline for several years
until it starts to slowly
climb back up around 2023
due to an increase in at-risk
populations.
The noted decline is
credited to recent legis-
lation, House Bill 3078,
which amends Measure 57,
a mandatory minimum sen-
Forecast for Pendleton Area
TODAY
SUNDAY
MONDAY
TUESDAY
WEDNESDAY
Plenty of sunshine
Plenty of sunshine
Sunshine
Plenty of sun
Mostly sunny
60° 32°
61° 33°
PENDLETON TEMPERATURE FORECAST
64° 34°
65° 36°
66° 40°
HERMISTON TEMPERATURE FORECAST
65° 29°
63° 30°
65° 33°
66° 35°
OREGON FORECAST
68° 35°
ALMANAC
Shown is today’s weather. Temperatures are today’s highs and tonight’s lows.
PENDLETON
through 3 p.m. yest.
HIGH
LOW
TEMP.
Seattle
Olympia
66/41
56/28
66/32
Longview
Kennewick Walla Walla
59/35
Lewiston
67/37
65/29
Astoria
66/44
Pullman
Yakima 64/30
63/33
61/32
Portland
Hermiston
70/46
The Dalles 65/29
Salem
Corvallis
73/35
Yesterday
Normals
Records
La Grande
56/26
PRECIPITATION
John Day
Eugene
Bend
74/34
57/24
56/28
Ontario
65/31
Caldwell
Burns
70°
34°
67°
39°
84° (1952) 20° (2008)
24 hours ending 3 p.m.
Month to date
Normal month to date
Year to date
Last year to date
Normal year to date
Albany
73/38
0.00"
1.14"
0.20"
6.29"
7.18"
6.76"
WINDS (in mph)
63/30
58/18
0.00"
1.39"
0.38"
7.91"
12.54"
9.32"
through 3 p.m. yest.
HIGH
LOW
TEMP.
Pendleton 54/23
73/41
24 hours ending 3 p.m.
Month to date
Normal month to date
Year to date
Last year to date
Normal year to date
HERMISTON
Enterprise
60/32
68/35
67°
38°
65°
41°
85° (1895) 24° (2008)
PRECIPITATION
Moses
Lake
62/33
Aberdeen
56/30
62/36
Tacoma
Yesterday
Normals
Records
Spokane
Wenatchee
63/43
Today
Boardman
Pendleton
Medford
80/38
Sun.
NNE 6-12
NNW 6-12
NE 4-8
NE 4-8
SUN AND MOON
Klamath Falls
67/27
Forecasts and graphics provided by AccuWeather, Inc. ©2018
Sunrise today
Sunset tonight
Moonrise today
Moonset today
7:09 a.m.
6:13 p.m.
11:57 a.m.
9:23 p.m.
First
Full
Last
New
Oct 16
Oct 24
Oct 31
Nov 7
NATIONAL EXTREMES
Yesterday’s National Extremes: (for the 48 contiguous states)
High 92° in Zapata, Texas Low 9° in Grand Forks, N.D.
NATIONAL WEATHER TODAY
Shown are noon positions of weather systems and precipitation. Temperature bands are highs for the day.
-10s
-0s
0s
showers t-storms
10s
rain
20s
flurries
30s
snow
40s
ice
50s
cold front
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60s
70s
80s
90s
100s
warm front stationary front
high
110s
low
tencing law for property
crimes approved by voters
in 2008.
The history of how
to sentence for property
crimes since 2008 gets
messy.
Under Measure 57,
the sentence for theft was
bumped from 13 months to
18 months.
Seven months after
law took effect, legisla-
tors voted with a two-thirds
majority to push the pre-
sumptive sentence back to
13 months, but that sunset
in 2012.
In 2017, the Legislature
voted to lower the sentence
back to 13 months.
A
court
challenge
ensued, contending that
the Oregon Constitution
requires a two-thirds major-
ity of legislators to vote for
reduced criminal sentences.
The Supreme Court is now
deciding the matter in a rul-
ing expected next year.
Kennedy said if the court
finds the reduction in sen-
tences is unconstitutional,
it’s unclear if just those
portions of the law will be
erased, or if the entire piece
of legislation will disap-
pear. That distinction would
impact the prison popula-
tion, he said.
Buehler criticizes proposed U.S.
rule changes on immigrants
PORTLAND (AP) —
State Rep. Knute Buehler,
seeking middle ground on
immigration issues in his
race for governor of Ore-
gon, criticized the Trump
administration for pur-
suing rule changes that
could hurt health care for
immigrants.
Oregon Public Broad-
casting reports that Bue-
hler on Thursday blasted
a proposed rule from the
Department of Homeland
Security. It would make it
harder for immigrants to
win permanent residency
in the U.S. if they use
Medicaid and other public
health programs.
“Access to care is criti-
cal to living a healthy and
fulfilled life,” Buehler said
in a statement. “We should
not be discouraging access
to health care, particularly
for children, as a condition
for citizenship. This does
not reflect Oregon’s values
and it is not the message we
should be sending to our
immigrant communities.”
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Following the measure,
the incarceration rate of
women rose. Looking for-
ward, the female popula-
tion is expected to spike
over the next year to 1,300
inmates, before taking a
plunge to just under 1,150.
The
population
is
expected to level out around
2022 and stay well under
1,200 through 2028. Over-
all, the female population
is projected to see an 8 per-
cent decline over 10 years
due to the relaxing of prop-
erty crime sentences.
Legislators
also
approved putting some
offenders back into the
community 30 days before
their sentence was up.
However, prisons rarely
exercised the authority. The
2017 law increased that
time to 120 days, and pris-
ons were instructed to fol-
low. The goal was to reduce
the growing prison popula-
tion so the state wouldn’t
have to build another
prison, Kennedy said.
That tweak has already
shown to be fruitful for the
prison system, as the latest
forecast shows the system
is using 45 fewer beds than
expected.
Since 2017, around 70
percent of eligible inmates
have been released early,
Kennedy said.
That’s coupled with the
justice reinvestment pro-
gram, which gives coun-
ties grant money to fund
for community-based pro-
grams and services to be
used as an alternative to
incarceration.
Kennedy’s forecast con-
siders all current state laws.
But it doesn’t anticipate
new ones. To account for
that, Kennedy looked at the
historical variance in the
prison population, which
is influenced by new laws.
With that information, he
determined there is a 95
percent probability that the
actual population in 2028
will differ from the forecast
by up to 11 percent.
Kennedy said research
shows large sentences don’t
provide much deterrent,
especially for heat-of-the
moment crimes, which are
often not repeat-offender
crimes, such as theft or
drug crimes.
“These minimum man-
datories only have an effect
through
incapacitation,”
he said, adding it’s also a
really expensive way to
fight crime.
But Kennedy also said
he doesn’t foresee massive
criminal justice reform in
Oregon. Much of that has
already taken place, he
said. The one major law left
is Measure 11, Oregon’s
sentencing law for violent
crimes.
Kennedy said the 2017
legislation was basically the
result of a bargain between
the Legislature and Oregon
district attorneys, judges
and sheriffs. The results
of the negotiation, he said,
was that Measure 11 won’t
be touched.
“Prosecutors love Mea-
sure 11,” he said.
Kennedy said prosecu-
tors use Measure 11’s long
sentences as leverage to
get defendants to take plea
deals.
———
Reporter Aubrey Wie-
ber:
aubrey@salemre-
porter.com or 503-575-
1251. He is a reporter
for Salem Reporter work-
ing with the Oregon Cap-
ital Bureau, a collabora-
tion of the Pamplin Media
Group, EO Media Group,
and Salem Reporter.
Buehler, the Republi-
can gubernatorial candi-
date, has been facing heat
from immigration advo-
cates upset at his support
for Measure 105. That ini-
tiative would repeal Ore-
gon’s
three-decade-old
sanctuary law, which limits
state and local police coop-
eration with federal immi-
gration authorities.
Democratic Gov. Kate
Brown has criticized Bue-
hler for supporting the
measure, which she argues
could lead to racial profil-
ing and discourage immi-
grants from reporting
crimes to the police.
Buehler himself has
played down his support
for Measure 105, saying at
a debate earlier this week
that the initiative is “not
something I’m campaign-
ing on.”
He added that he dif-
fered with the Trump
administration on several
immigration policies. He
said he backed protections
for immigrants brought
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here illegally as children,
and opposed the adminis-
tration’s policy of separat-
ing children from parents
seeking to cross the border.
Brown’s
campaign
spokesman, Christian Gas-
ton, charged in a statement
that Buehler is “twisting
himself in knots trying to
cover up his record” in the
Legislature on health and
immigration issues.
Among other things,
he cited Buehler’s vote
against a 2017 bill aimed
at providing health cover-
age to all children, includ-
ing undocumented immi-
grants. Buehler said at the
time that he couldn’t jus-
tify the added cost of the
legislation.
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