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Page 4A OPINION East Oregonian Thursday, June 23, 2016 Founded October 16, 1875 KATHRYN B. BROWN DANIEL WATTENBURGER Publisher Managing Editor JENNINE PERKINSON TIM TRAINOR Advertising Director Opinion Page Editor OUR VIEW What we don’t know about marijuana Next Friday will mark one year ringing hollow, at least at irst of legal recreational marijuana in blush. A survey recently released Oregon, and there’s still so much we by Colorado’s health department don’t know. shows no increase in teen use Because the drug is a controlled of marijuana since the drug substance in the eyes of the federal became legal in that state. Drug government, serious studies of its and alcohol abuse among teens beneicial uses and remains a concern, harmful effects the legality of We will ind out but haven’t been marijuana hasn’t yet undertaken by the had a perceptible in November FDA. And because impact. how local voters of the patchwork We know that one of individual state of the now feel about talking proponents’ regulations, and the points — a marijuana. short time since the new lucrative tax irst states voted — is coming true, to make pot legal, though it’s still too early to know the long-term effect. tracking its effects on public health In the irst ive months of 2016, has been spotty at best. We do know that unlike other Oregon has received $14.9 million banned substances and alcohol, fatal in taxes on recreational marijuana, marijuana overdoses are nonexistent. according to the Oregon Department In Oregon, possession of 8 ounces of of Revenue. No small amount for marijuana — enough for about 250 a state desperate for any inlux of joints — is allowed. But it would cash. take 1,500 pounds consumed in We don’t know, however, about 15 minutes to kill someone. how local voters feel about the We don’t yet know the full new state of legal marijuana. In impact of legal marijuana on trafic November 2014 when Oregonians wrecks, though we know driving approved Measure 91 to end the while high, drunk and especially ban on recreational pot, Eastern both is extremely dangerous. An Oregon by and large voted against American Automobile Association the measure. Following that cue, study found that in 2010, 40 people local governments have banned died in Washington wrecks in which businesses from selling it. at least one driver had THC in their Come November, voters in system, and 85 died in 2014, a Pendleton, Hermiston and Milton- year after the drug became legal in Freewater will decide whether to the state. Of course, because THC overturn those bans, and whether to notoriously stays in the bloodstream add an additional tax to help local for days or even weeks, it isn’t a coffers. Seeing how the tone of perfect indication of a current level debate has changed in the last ive of intoxication. years, it will be interesting to see We know that one of the biggest what else we learn about the drug, rallying cries against legalization and the way it is viewed by the — think of the children! — is public. Unsigned editorials are the opinion of the East Oregonian editorial board of Publisher Kathryn Brown, Managing Editor Daniel Wattenburger, and Opinion Page Editor Tim Trainor. Other columns, letters and cartoons on this page express the opinions of the authors and not necessarily that of the East Oregonian. OTHER VIEWS Foreign guestworkers: A tale of two nations Capital Press, June 10 F or two nations that share a common border, the U.S. and Canada get along pretty well. Missing are the legal battles over trade and the incendiary political polemics over immigration that light up the border between the U.S. and Mexico. Though fundamentally different nations, the U.S. and Canada share a good many issues — an excess of wolves and a need for foreign guestworkers among them. Maybe the two nations can learn from each. Or better yet, maybe the U.S. can learn from Canada when it comes to wolves and guestworkers. In Canada, gray wolves are managed as big game. With more than 55,000 wolves, Canadian wildlife managers have igured out that the end of the world is not at hand if a few wolves are removed because they chronically attack livestock. In the U.S., a swarm of environmental groups heads for court nearly every time a wolf is killed for repeatedly attacking cattle or sheep. They wave copies of the Endangered Species Act and the National Environmental Policy Act as they try to stop U.S. wildlife managers from, well, managing wildlife. Both the U.S. and Canada share something else in common. They both need more farmworkers and can’t hire them domestically. They rely on foreign guestworkers, which are brought in from other nations to help harvest crops and do other labor-intensive farm work. There the similarity ends. In Canada, the main efforts seem to focus on making the Seasonal Agricultural Workers Program work. The program is administered by a nonproit organization, called FARMS for Foreign Agricultural Resources Management Services, meaning that most of the politics are left out. In the U.S., the H-2A foreign guestworker program is caught up in a political irestorm that includes yelling matches over illegal immigration, building a wall on the Mexico border, union worries about maintaining a foothold in the farm workforce, federal government ineptitude and the presidential candidates, who are lailing wildly at each other. With all of those forces in play — plus a president who doesn’t seem to give a darn about bringing in foreign farmworkers — it’s amazing any H-2A workers ever make it to the U.S. to help with harvest. Perhaps the U.S. should take a page out of Canada’s playbook and change its guestworker program to more closely resemble Canada’s. Canada has agreements with Mexico and several Caribbean nations to provide workers to Canadian farmers. The workers can stay in Canada for up to eight months. That means the farmers on the FARMS board of directors have direct control and have every reason to try to improve the guestworker program. In the U.S. the H-2A program depends on the politics of the moment, not the needs of the farmers. The goal should not be to make political points at the expense of farmers. The goal should be to help farmers obtain enough workers to get their work done. Though the Canadian program is not perfect — farmers there still need more foreign guestworkers — it is a far cry from the basket case that passes for the H-2A program in the U.S. Canada’s leaders seem to get it. We can only hope that one day U.S. leaders will get it, too. U.S., Canada can learn from each other. OTHER VIEWS Is Trump headed for a loss of ... ordinary Republican proportions? T in the second week of June, has Clinton he latest national polls show ahead of Trump by 3 points, 48 percent Donald Trump in dire shape. In to 45 percent. (The RealClearPolitics the RealClearPolitics average, average, which contains some old polls, Trump has dropped below 40 percent — 39.1 percent, to be precise has Clinton up by 4 points.) At the same — while Mitt Romney, in the entire time in 2012, the average had Obama losing 2012 campaign, never fell up by 3 points, and Obama went on to below 43 percent. In a nation roughly win by 3.9 points. So today looks pretty Byron evenly divided, the thinking goes, similar to back then. York even an unpopular candidate should In Pennsylvania, a PPP poll from Comment be able to muster 40 percent support, the irst week in June has Trump and yet Trump is falling short. and Clinton tied at 44 percent. The At this point four years RealClearPolitics average ago, Romney trailed Barack isn’t of much value, since Obama by 2.2 percentage after the PPP survey, the points nationally, according most recent poll is two to the RealClearPolitics months old. So if PPP is average. Trump is 5.8 correct, the race is even. points behind Hillary That’s much better Clinton. The gap has led to than Romney’s position predictions of catastrophe in in Pennsylvania in 2012. November. “The Republican In June of that year, the Party’s Coming Trumpian RealClearPolitics average Disaster,” read the headline had Obama ahead of of a recent George Will column in National Romney by 8 points, and Obama went on to Review Online. win by 5.4 points. But remember the lesson of 2012, which So Trump today appears signiicantly has also been the lesson of every other stronger in Pennsylvania than Romney was at election: The presidency is won by winning the same point in the 2012 race. And indeed, states, and therefore the condition of the race Pennsylvania has for months seemed the best in key states tells more about the campaign candidate for a Trump win in a big blue state. than any national poll. On the other hand, Pennsylvania has often “This isn’t a national vote contest where seemed within the grasp of Republicans, but you can be on cable news every day and the last time a GOP presidential candidate dominate national coverage,” Mitch Stewart, actually won was in 1988. Unless there battleground states director for Obama in is a big shift in the race, it’s not a bad bet 2012, told the Associated Press recently. “This that Trump will end up losing, because is literally going state-by-state and coming up Pennsylvania always slips away. with a plan in each.” In Ohio, all the polls in the What is notable now is that in some RealClearPolitics average are at least a month key states Trump is trailing Clinton not by old. In the average, Clinton leads Trump by staggering, historically disastrous margins, 1.4 points. At the same time in 2012, Obama but by margins that look remarkably like the led Romney by 1.8 points. That’s pretty close Obama-Romney race in 2012. to today. Obama went on to win Ohio by 3 Look at the polls in Florida, Virginia, points. Pennsylvania and Ohio, four states Trump will The bottom line is that the Clinton-Trump likely need to win (or at least win three) if he numbers in some critically important states is to capture the White House. are more in line with the Obama-Romney race Some of the most recent polling in those than they are with some sort of doomsday states has been done by the Democratic irm blowout suggested by the national poll PPP, which has done fairly reliable work in numbers. And that suggests that after all the the past. In the most recent Florida poll, from noise and drama and weeping and gnashing of PPP, Trump leads Clinton by a single point, 45 teeth, Trump could be headed for a loss that percent to 44 percent. In the RealClearPolitics looks, not like a party-ending calamity, but average of polls, which includes surveys an ordinary Republican defeat. Ted Cruz or going back to late April and might be less Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush might have lost in accurate than PPP, Clinton leads Trump by 1.6 much the same way. percentage points. The Electoral College numbers are what In June 2012, the RealClearPolitics average they are; Democrats have a real, long-term had Obama with a miniscule 0.2 percentage advantage in states that by themselves point lead in Florida. On Election Day, Obama approach a winning total of 270. That could be won by just under 1 point. The bottom line is more important than any Trump controversy, that Trump appears to be roughly even with or even all of them put together. Clinton in Florida, much the way Romney ■ was roughly even in Florida at the same time Byron York is Chief Political Correspondent in 2012 before going on to lose by a narrow for the Washington Examiner, a Fox News margin. contributor, author of “The Vast Left Wing In Virginia, the newest poll, taken by PPP Conspiracy.” Remember the lesson of 2012: the presidency is won by winning states. LETTERS POLICY The East Oregonian welcomes original letters of 400 words or less on public issues and public policies for publication in the newspaper and on our website. The newspaper reserves the right to withhold letters that address concerns about individual services and products or letters that infringe on the rights of private citizens. Submitted letters must be signed by the author and include the city of residence and a daytime phone number. The phone number will not be published. Unsigned letters will not be published. Send letters to Managing Editor Daniel Wattenburger, 211 S.E. Byers Ave. Pendleton, OR 97801 or email editor@eastoregonian.com.