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OPINION
East Oregonian
Thursday, June 23, 2016
Founded October 16, 1875
KATHRYN B. BROWN
DANIEL WATTENBURGER
Publisher
Managing Editor
JENNINE PERKINSON
TIM TRAINOR
Advertising Director
Opinion Page Editor
OUR VIEW
What we don’t
know about
marijuana
Next Friday will mark one year
ringing hollow, at least at irst
of legal recreational marijuana in
blush. A survey recently released
Oregon, and there’s still so much we by Colorado’s health department
don’t know.
shows no increase in teen use
Because the drug is a controlled
of marijuana since the drug
substance in the eyes of the federal
became legal in that state. Drug
government, serious studies of its
and alcohol abuse among teens
beneicial uses and
remains a concern,
harmful effects
the legality of
We will ind out but
haven’t been
marijuana hasn’t yet
undertaken by the
had a perceptible
in November
FDA. And because
impact.
how local voters
of the patchwork
We know that one
of individual state
of
the
now feel about talking proponents’
regulations, and the
points — a
marijuana.
short time since the
new lucrative tax
irst states voted
— is coming true,
to make pot legal,
though it’s still too
early to know the long-term effect.
tracking its effects on public health
In the irst ive months of 2016,
has been spotty at best.
We do know that unlike other
Oregon has received $14.9 million
banned substances and alcohol, fatal in taxes on recreational marijuana,
marijuana overdoses are nonexistent. according to the Oregon Department
In Oregon, possession of 8 ounces of of Revenue. No small amount for
marijuana — enough for about 250
a state desperate for any inlux of
joints — is allowed. But it would
cash.
take 1,500 pounds consumed in
We don’t know, however,
about 15 minutes to kill someone.
how local voters feel about the
We don’t yet know the full
new state of legal marijuana. In
impact of legal marijuana on trafic
November 2014 when Oregonians
wrecks, though we know driving
approved Measure 91 to end the
while high, drunk and especially
ban on recreational pot, Eastern
both is extremely dangerous. An
Oregon by and large voted against
American Automobile Association
the measure. Following that cue,
study found that in 2010, 40 people
local governments have banned
died in Washington wrecks in which businesses from selling it.
at least one driver had THC in their
Come November, voters in
system, and 85 died in 2014, a
Pendleton, Hermiston and Milton-
year after the drug became legal in
Freewater will decide whether to
the state. Of course, because THC
overturn those bans, and whether to
notoriously stays in the bloodstream add an additional tax to help local
for days or even weeks, it isn’t a
coffers. Seeing how the tone of
perfect indication of a current level
debate has changed in the last ive
of intoxication.
years, it will be interesting to see
We know that one of the biggest
what else we learn about the drug,
rallying cries against legalization
and the way it is viewed by the
— think of the children! — is
public.
Unsigned editorials are the opinion of the East Oregonian editorial board of Publisher
Kathryn Brown, Managing Editor Daniel Wattenburger, and Opinion Page Editor Tim Trainor.
Other columns, letters and cartoons on this page express the opinions of the authors and not
necessarily that of the East Oregonian.
OTHER VIEWS
Foreign guestworkers:
A tale of two nations
Capital Press, June 10
F
or two nations that share a common
border, the U.S. and Canada get
along pretty well. Missing are
the legal battles over trade and the
incendiary political polemics over
immigration that light up the border
between the U.S. and Mexico.
Though fundamentally different
nations, the U.S. and
Canada share a good
many issues — an
excess of wolves and
a need for foreign
guestworkers among
them.
Maybe the two
nations can learn from
each. Or better yet, maybe the U.S. can
learn from Canada when it comes to
wolves and guestworkers.
In Canada, gray wolves are managed
as big game. With more than 55,000
wolves, Canadian wildlife managers
have igured out that the end of the
world is not at hand if a few wolves are
removed because they chronically attack
livestock.
In the U.S., a swarm of environmental
groups heads for court nearly every time
a wolf is killed for repeatedly attacking
cattle or sheep. They wave copies of
the Endangered Species Act and the
National Environmental Policy Act as
they try to stop U.S. wildlife managers
from, well, managing wildlife.
Both the U.S. and Canada share
something else in common. They both
need more farmworkers and can’t hire
them domestically. They rely on foreign
guestworkers, which are brought in from
other nations to help harvest crops and
do other labor-intensive farm work.
There the similarity ends.
In Canada, the main efforts seem
to focus on making the Seasonal
Agricultural Workers Program work.
The program is administered by a
nonproit organization, called FARMS
for Foreign Agricultural Resources
Management Services, meaning that
most of the politics are left out.
In the U.S., the H-2A foreign
guestworker program is caught up in a
political irestorm that includes yelling
matches over illegal immigration,
building a wall on the Mexico border,
union worries about maintaining
a foothold in the farm workforce,
federal government ineptitude and
the presidential
candidates, who are
lailing wildly at each
other.
With all of those
forces in play — plus a
president who doesn’t
seem to give a darn
about bringing in
foreign farmworkers — it’s amazing any
H-2A workers ever make it to the U.S. to
help with harvest.
Perhaps the U.S. should take a page
out of Canada’s playbook and change
its guestworker program to more closely
resemble Canada’s.
Canada has agreements with Mexico
and several Caribbean nations to provide
workers to Canadian farmers. The
workers can stay in Canada for up to
eight months.
That means the farmers on the
FARMS board of directors have direct
control and have every reason to try to
improve the guestworker program.
In the U.S. the H-2A program
depends on the politics of the moment,
not the needs of the farmers.
The goal should not be to make
political points at the expense of farmers.
The goal should be to help farmers
obtain enough workers to get their work
done.
Though the Canadian program is not
perfect — farmers there still need more
foreign guestworkers — it is a far cry
from the basket case that passes for the
H-2A program in the U.S.
Canada’s leaders seem to get it. We
can only hope that one day U.S. leaders
will get it, too.
U.S., Canada
can learn from
each other.
OTHER VIEWS
Is Trump headed for a loss of ...
ordinary Republican proportions?
T
in the second week of June, has Clinton
he latest national polls show
ahead of Trump by 3 points, 48 percent
Donald Trump in dire shape. In
to 45 percent. (The RealClearPolitics
the RealClearPolitics average,
average, which contains some old polls,
Trump has dropped below 40
percent — 39.1 percent, to be precise
has Clinton up by 4 points.) At the same
— while Mitt Romney, in the entire
time in 2012, the average had Obama
losing 2012 campaign, never fell
up by 3 points, and Obama went on to
below 43 percent. In a nation roughly
win by 3.9 points. So today looks pretty
Byron
evenly divided, the thinking goes,
similar to back then.
York
even an unpopular candidate should
In Pennsylvania, a PPP poll from
Comment
be able to muster 40 percent support,
the irst week in June has Trump
and yet Trump is falling short.
and Clinton tied at 44 percent. The
At this point four years
RealClearPolitics average
ago, Romney trailed Barack
isn’t of much value, since
Obama by 2.2 percentage
after the PPP survey, the
points nationally, according
most recent poll is two
to the RealClearPolitics
months old. So if PPP is
average. Trump is 5.8
correct, the race is even.
points behind Hillary
That’s much better
Clinton. The gap has led to
than Romney’s position
predictions of catastrophe in
in Pennsylvania in 2012.
November. “The Republican
In June of that year, the
Party’s Coming Trumpian
RealClearPolitics average
Disaster,” read the headline
had Obama ahead of
of a recent George Will column in National
Romney by 8 points, and Obama went on to
Review Online.
win by 5.4 points.
But remember the lesson of 2012, which
So Trump today appears signiicantly
has also been the lesson of every other
stronger in Pennsylvania than Romney was at
election: The presidency is won by winning
the same point in the 2012 race. And indeed,
states, and therefore the condition of the race
Pennsylvania has for months seemed the best
in key states tells more about the campaign
candidate for a Trump win in a big blue state.
than any national poll.
On the other hand, Pennsylvania has often
“This isn’t a national vote contest where
seemed within the grasp of Republicans, but
you can be on cable news every day and
the last time a GOP presidential candidate
dominate national coverage,” Mitch Stewart,
actually won was in 1988. Unless there
battleground states director for Obama in
is a big shift in the race, it’s not a bad bet
2012, told the Associated Press recently. “This that Trump will end up losing, because
is literally going state-by-state and coming up
Pennsylvania always slips away.
with a plan in each.”
In Ohio, all the polls in the
What is notable now is that in some
RealClearPolitics average are at least a month
key states Trump is trailing Clinton not by
old. In the average, Clinton leads Trump by
staggering, historically disastrous margins,
1.4 points. At the same time in 2012, Obama
but by margins that look remarkably like the
led Romney by 1.8 points. That’s pretty close
Obama-Romney race in 2012.
to today. Obama went on to win Ohio by 3
Look at the polls in Florida, Virginia,
points.
Pennsylvania and Ohio, four states Trump will
The bottom line is that the Clinton-Trump
likely need to win (or at least win three) if he
numbers in some critically important states
is to capture the White House.
are more in line with the Obama-Romney race
Some of the most recent polling in those
than they are with some sort of doomsday
states has been done by the Democratic irm
blowout suggested by the national poll
PPP, which has done fairly reliable work in
numbers. And that suggests that after all the
the past. In the most recent Florida poll, from
noise and drama and weeping and gnashing of
PPP, Trump leads Clinton by a single point, 45 teeth, Trump could be headed for a loss that
percent to 44 percent. In the RealClearPolitics looks, not like a party-ending calamity, but
average of polls, which includes surveys
an ordinary Republican defeat. Ted Cruz or
going back to late April and might be less
Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush might have lost in
accurate than PPP, Clinton leads Trump by 1.6 much the same way.
percentage points.
The Electoral College numbers are what
In June 2012, the RealClearPolitics average they are; Democrats have a real, long-term
had Obama with a miniscule 0.2 percentage
advantage in states that by themselves
point lead in Florida. On Election Day, Obama approach a winning total of 270. That could be
won by just under 1 point. The bottom line is
more important than any Trump controversy,
that Trump appears to be roughly even with
or even all of them put together.
Clinton in Florida, much the way Romney
■
was roughly even in Florida at the same time
Byron York is Chief Political Correspondent
in 2012 before going on to lose by a narrow
for the Washington Examiner, a Fox News
margin.
contributor, author of “The Vast Left Wing
In Virginia, the newest poll, taken by PPP
Conspiracy.”
Remember the
lesson of 2012:
the presidency is
won by winning
states.
LETTERS POLICY
The East Oregonian welcomes original letters of 400 words or less on public issues
and public policies for publication in the newspaper and on our website. The newspaper
reserves the right to withhold letters that address concerns about individual services and
products or letters that infringe on the rights of private citizens. Submitted letters must
be signed by the author and include the city of residence and a daytime phone number.
The phone number will not be published. Unsigned letters will not be published. Send
letters to Managing Editor Daniel Wattenburger, 211 S.E. Byers Ave. Pendleton, OR 97801
or email editor@eastoregonian.com.