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About The skanner. (Portland, Or.) 1975-2014 | View Entire Issue (May 23, 2018)
May 23, 2018 The Skanner Page 9 CAREERS Second-Longest US Expansion on Record Keeps Churning Out Jobs Economists say growth is sluggish — and wages are still stagnant By Josh Boak AP Economics Writer WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy has deliv- ered steady if only mod- est gains for most Amer- icans since the Great Recession ended in 2009. It’s been a frustration for many. Yet the very sluggish- ness of the economic ex- pansion helps explain why it’s now the sec- ond-longest on record and why more of the country might soon ben- efit from higher pay. Nearly nine years into the recovery, the job mar- ket keeps delivering: The government said Friday that employers added 164,000 jobs in April — the 91st straight month of hiring growth, the lon- gest such streak on re- cord. More tellingly, the unemployment rate fell to 3.9 percent, the lowest since December 2000. Eight years ago, the job- less rate was 10 percent. But for much of the expansion, many peo- ple have felt left behind. Some have found only part-time work. Pay growth, on average, has been meager. The stock market boom and low interest rates that de- fined the recovery have favored the wealthy. The economy’s mod- est growth, though, has helped prevent it from overheating and skid- ding into another reces- sion, as often happened during more robust expansions. And some economists say the ev- er-lower unemployment rate suggests that a wider swath of Americans soon stand to benefit from stronger pay growth. “It’s just not sustain- able for average pay growth to be so low in a labor market this tight,” said Andrew Chamber- lain, chief economist at the jobs site Glassdoor. Average hourly earn- ings have risen 2.6 per- cent from a year ago. That is slightly more than the year-over-year wage growth of roughly 2 percent that prevailed in 2014 and 2015, when the unemployment rate was higher. Yet by his- torical standards, wage growth has been relative- ly stagnant. Past expansions have “ It’s just not sustain- able for av- erage pay growth to be so low in a labor market this tight delivered faster growth. But since World War II, they have lasted an aver- age of less than five years before slipping into re- cession. Gus Faucher, chief economist for PNC Fi- nancial, said he thinks annual wage growth could average 3 percent by the end of the year. He notes that employers are having an increasing- ly difficult time finding qualified workers, creat- ing pressure for them to raise wages. That may explain why the pace of job growth was slower in March and April: There aren’t enough unemployed people to fill openings. Knutec, a company in Bradenton, Florida, that builds communication network systems, hopes to double its 19-person staff in the next 60 days to meet demand from customers. Troy Knutson, a found- er of the company, said he offers $15 an hour to new employees, who are usually trained on the job how to haul cable and install networks. He said he’s now competing against fast food restau- rants that are offering workers roughly the same starting wage. The difference, Knutson says, is that his company will provide a career path, cover the costs of health insurance and general- ly raise a worker’s pay to $35 an hour after five years. “The job market is get- ting competitive, and people are able to request higher wages,” he said. An encouraging sign for the economy is that the pace of hiring has yet to be disrupted by dramatic global market swings, a recent pickup in inflation or the risk that the tariffs being pushed by President Donald Trump could provoke a trade war. Much of the economy’s durability is due, in fact, to the healthy job mar- ket. The increase in peo- ple earning paychecks has bolstered demand for housing, even though fewer properties are be- ing listed for sale. Con- sumer confidence has improved over the past year. And more people are shopping, with re- tail sales having picked up in March after three monthly declines. Manufacturers add- ed 24,000 workers last month, a sign that pos- sible tariffs on steel, aluminum and Chinese goods haven’t altered hiring plans at most U.S. factories. Restaurants and hotels hired a net 18,000. The health care and social assistance sec- tor added 29,300 jobs and the construction indus- try 17,000. With qualified job ap- plicants harder to find in many industries, em- ployers have become less and less likely to shed employees. The four- week moving average for people applying for first- Briefs cont’d from pg 8 May 29: The Sheraton Portland Airport hotel will host the Portland Healthcare Hir- ing Expo from 11 a.m. to 2 p.m. May 29 at 8235 NE Airport Way. Job seekers are advised to come dressed for an in- terview and to bring plenty of copies of their resume. To preregister or view the list of employers attending, visit www.HCHiringExpos.com. May 30: Daimler will host a hiring event from 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. May 30 at WorkSource Portland Metro N/NE, 30 N. Webster St. for truck manufacturing plant as- semblers. Applicants should bring a current resume. Starting wage for this position is $15 per hour. Employees are also eligible for medical, dental, vision, vacation, sick leave, life insurance, short-term disability, retirement and education reimbursement. For more information, contact (503) 280-6046. May 30, 31, June 20: Securitas Security Services USA, Inc. will hold hiring events on these dates at these locations: • 11 a.m. – 1 p.m. May 30, WorkSource Beaverton/Hillsboro, 241 SW Edge- way Drive, Beaverton • 11 a.m. – 1 p.m. May 31, WorkSource Portland Metro N/NE, 30 N. Webster St. • 11 a.m. – 1 p.m. June 20, WorkSource Gresham, 19421 SE Stark St. time unemploy- ment benefits has reached its lowest level since 1973. The trend re- flects a decline in mass layoffs. Many companies expect the econ- omy to keep ex- panding, especial- ly after a dose of stimulus from tax cuts signed into law by Trump that have also in- creased the feder- al budget deficit. Inflation has shown signs of ac- celerating slight- ly, eroding some of the potential wage growth. Consumer pric- es rose at a year- over-year pace of 2.4 percent in March, the sharpest annual increase in 12 months. The Federal Reserve has set an annual infla- tion target of 2 percent. Investors expect the Fed to raise rates at least twice more this year, af- ter an earlier rate hike in March, to keep inflation from climbing too far above that target. Many economists saw the April jobs report as confirm- ing that forecast. Scott Anderson, chief economist at the Bank of the West, said the April jobs report suggests that inflation may remain tame, which means the Fed might not raise rates more than three times this year. “Slower job growth with little sign of infla- tion pressures is just what the doctor ordered to keep this economic ex- pansion on track without a serious case of over- heating,” Anderson said.
