May 23, 2018 The Skanner Page 9
CAREERS
Second-Longest US Expansion on Record Keeps Churning Out Jobs
Economists say growth is sluggish — and wages are still stagnant
By Josh Boak
AP Economics Writer
WASHINGTON — The
U.S. economy has deliv-
ered steady if only mod-
est gains for most Amer-
icans since the Great
Recession ended in 2009.
It’s been a frustration for
many.
Yet the very sluggish-
ness of the economic ex-
pansion helps explain
why it’s now the sec-
ond-longest on record
and why more of the
country might soon ben-
efit from higher pay.
Nearly nine years into
the recovery, the job mar-
ket keeps delivering: The
government said Friday
that employers added
164,000 jobs in April —
the 91st straight month
of hiring growth, the lon-
gest such streak on re-
cord. More tellingly, the
unemployment rate fell
to 3.9 percent, the lowest
since December 2000.
Eight years ago, the job-
less rate was 10 percent.
But for much of the
expansion, many peo-
ple have felt left behind.
Some have found only
part-time work. Pay
growth, on average, has
been meager. The stock
market boom and low
interest rates that de-
fined the recovery have
favored the wealthy.
The economy’s mod-
est growth, though, has
helped prevent it from
overheating and skid-
ding into another reces-
sion, as often happened
during more robust
expansions. And some
economists say the ev-
er-lower unemployment
rate suggests that a wider
swath of Americans soon
stand to benefit from
stronger pay growth.
“It’s just not sustain-
able for average pay
growth to be so low in a
labor market this tight,”
said Andrew Chamber-
lain, chief economist at
the jobs site Glassdoor.
Average hourly earn-
ings have risen 2.6 per-
cent from a year ago.
That is slightly more
than the year-over-year
wage growth of roughly
2 percent that prevailed
in 2014 and 2015, when
the unemployment rate
was higher. Yet by his-
torical standards, wage
growth has been relative-
ly stagnant.
Past expansions have
“
It’s just not
sustain-
able for av-
erage pay
growth to
be so low
in a labor
market
this tight
delivered faster growth.
But since World War II,
they have lasted an aver-
age of less than five years
before slipping into re-
cession.
Gus Faucher, chief
economist for PNC Fi-
nancial, said he thinks
annual wage growth
could average 3 percent
by the end of the year. He
notes that employers are
having an increasing-
ly difficult time finding
qualified workers, creat-
ing pressure for them to
raise wages.
That may explain why
the pace of job growth
was slower in March
and April: There aren’t
enough
unemployed
people to fill openings.
Knutec, a company in
Bradenton, Florida, that
builds communication
network systems, hopes
to double its 19-person
staff in the next 60 days
to meet demand from
customers.
Troy Knutson, a found-
er of the company, said
he offers $15 an hour to
new employees, who are
usually trained on the
job how to haul cable
and install networks. He
said he’s now competing
against fast food restau-
rants that are offering
workers roughly the
same starting wage. The
difference, Knutson says,
is that his company will
provide a career path,
cover the costs of health
insurance and general-
ly raise a worker’s pay
to $35 an hour after five
years.
“The job market is get-
ting competitive, and
people are able to request
higher wages,” he said.
An encouraging sign
for the economy is that
the pace of hiring has
yet to be disrupted by
dramatic global market
swings, a recent pickup
in inflation or the risk
that the tariffs being
pushed by President
Donald Trump could
provoke a trade war.
Much of the economy’s
durability is due, in fact,
to the healthy job mar-
ket. The increase in peo-
ple earning paychecks
has bolstered demand
for housing, even though
fewer properties are be-
ing listed for sale. Con-
sumer confidence has
improved over the past
year. And more people
are shopping, with re-
tail sales having picked
up in March after three
monthly declines.
Manufacturers
add-
ed 24,000 workers last
month, a sign that pos-
sible tariffs on steel,
aluminum and Chinese
goods haven’t altered
hiring plans at most U.S.
factories.
Restaurants
and hotels hired a net
18,000. The health care
and social assistance sec-
tor added 29,300 jobs and
the construction indus-
try 17,000.
With qualified job ap-
plicants harder to find
in many industries, em-
ployers have become less
and less likely to shed
employees. The four-
week moving average for
people applying for first-
Briefs cont’d from pg 8
May 29:
The Sheraton Portland Airport hotel
will host the Portland Healthcare Hir-
ing Expo from 11 a.m. to 2 p.m. May 29
at 8235 NE Airport Way. Job seekers
are advised to come dressed for an in-
terview and to bring plenty of copies
of their resume. To preregister or view
the list of employers attending, visit
www.HCHiringExpos.com.
May 30:
Daimler will host a hiring event from
10 a.m. to 1 p.m. May 30 at WorkSource
Portland Metro N/NE, 30 N. Webster
St. for truck manufacturing plant as-
semblers. Applicants should bring a
current resume. Starting wage for this
position is $15 per hour. Employees are
also eligible for medical, dental, vision,
vacation, sick leave, life insurance,
short-term disability, retirement and
education reimbursement. For more
information, contact (503) 280-6046.
May 30, 31, June 20:
Securitas Security Services USA, Inc.
will hold hiring events on these dates at
these locations:
• 11 a.m. – 1 p.m. May 30, WorkSource
Beaverton/Hillsboro, 241 SW Edge-
way Drive, Beaverton
• 11 a.m. – 1 p.m. May 31, WorkSource
Portland Metro N/NE, 30 N. Webster
St.
• 11 a.m. – 1 p.m. June 20, WorkSource
Gresham, 19421 SE Stark St.
time unemploy-
ment benefits has
reached its lowest
level since 1973.
The trend re-
flects a decline
in mass layoffs.
Many companies
expect the econ-
omy to keep ex-
panding, especial-
ly after a dose of
stimulus from tax
cuts signed into
law by Trump
that have also in-
creased the feder-
al budget deficit.
Inflation
has
shown signs of ac-
celerating slight-
ly, eroding some
of the potential
wage
growth.
Consumer pric-
es rose at a year-
over-year
pace
of 2.4 percent
in March, the sharpest
annual increase in 12
months.
The Federal Reserve
has set an annual infla-
tion target of 2 percent.
Investors expect the Fed
to raise rates at least
twice more this year, af-
ter an earlier rate hike in
March, to keep inflation
from climbing too far
above that target. Many
economists saw the April
jobs report as confirm-
ing that forecast.
Scott Anderson, chief
economist at the Bank of
the West, said the April
jobs report suggests that
inflation may remain
tame, which means the
Fed might not raise rates
more than three times
this year.
“Slower job growth
with little sign of infla-
tion pressures is just
what the doctor ordered
to keep this economic ex-
pansion on track without
a serious case of over-
heating,” Anderson said.