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About The Oregon statesman. (Salem, Or.) 1916-1980 | View Entire Issue (Dec. 31, 1952)
-. -: '. .." I Bidault Fails in Cabinet Try The Ctatfaxaan. Salem, Orsw YTonosdav. December 31, It 12 7 1953?i Business WiE Prices Brou Level Off Farm Bit 2- Babson Sees Less Controls, Keen Competition, (E4Kr' sou: For but years U ImmuU f ftr W. Baosea. toter- kUfciy muM tk km iu cm us ni u pun i luatat. ru tn rtawt m Um yrwrwu tor ltM are atli avauaMe te Oin gfattssoa r4n ta ta lonowlag IS flat BwtiHi aa By Eager W. BOm 1. Business will start the year 195J In high gear. The pace will ) slacken, however, as the year unfolds, with total business volume for 1953 smaller than for 1952. The powerful supports of the Great Boom construction and automobiles will lose strength as the year ad vances. Z. Barring World War III, 1953 will find business operating under Ism government control than any year since outbreak of the Korean War. But don't expect removal of INTENSE COMPETITION PREDICTED t. Salient economic feature Is the fact that our productive ca pacity has now been expanded to the point where, barring World War III, output can take care of 4. The handwriting is on the Their days are numbered. The successful businessman next year will be the one who can control his costs S. I strongly urge my business friends to get out and sell, and sell hard next year; but hire the best cost accountants you can for the back office. "Order takers" will WAR AND C My forecasts for 1953 are War in will not strike during the clear that "all bets are off" the day 7. The H-bomb gives us another lease on time. Our first lease, from Hiroshima In 1945 to the Russian A-bomb explosion in 1949, was frittered away in idle bickering. "breather." It may be our last chance. S. 1953 will be most important We will need more than an H-bomb a great rise of spiritual strength, which Is not now evident. NO NEW BUSINESS BOOM The long business boom following World War II was beginning to run out of steam when the Korean War gave it a new lease or lire However, the stimulus of defense spending is already fading. Barring further international troubles, defense activity in 1953 will be a floor under, and not a new stimulous to, It. Capital expansion will move into a readjustment phase some time In 1953. This has been an outstanding economic force behind our long, period of good times. Nevertheless, I do not now anticipate any sharp break in business. If a slide starts it should be gradual, not steep. 11. Big credit expansion has for business during the past two; repayments will become more Important than new credit advances. This could handicap over-all business unless advertising expenditures re increased. j It. Under an Eisenhower Administration I do not look for ex pansion of our money supplies as a result of increased deficit fi nahcing. Thus, another stimulating despite the better confidence following the Eisenhower landslide. MORE CONSERVATISM IN GOVERNMENT IS. Although General Eisenhower ran far ahead of his ticket, there has been a considerable gain in the conservative complexion of Congress. The margin in favor of slieht excess of Republicans over that several Democrats i can be counted in the conservative column. The emphasis will be oh purifying 14. All government departments publicans after January 20, Never before in the history or tne unuea States has a conservative government had such a powerful bureau cracy at its finger tips. In 1953 we to aid rather than handicap business.; HANG ONTO YOUR JOB 15. Unemployment will be no nation during the early months of supply of labor promise to hold in employment will increase, reaching of the year. 1C While employment runs high during the first part of the year, strikes will continue to plague management Unions, however, will be cautious so that they will not bring tive wrath of a conservative Congress. j 17. During the early months of 1953 amendments to the Taft Hartley Act will be moderate. Great in severe restriction on labor being forecast a decline in strike totals for 18. Looking to the year 1953, children. to work more faithfully at fooled by present high demand for to "dig in and work harder. Drifters will be the first to be let go PRICE FORECASTS It. Barring World War III and severe droughts, the supply of most raw materials, farm products, and manufactured goods prom ises to be adequate during 1953. Even the so-called invisible inven tories in the hands of consumers are high as a result of heavy buying since the outbreak of the Korean next year. t8. Do not forget that there is always a big IF in the supply situation with regard to farm products. Severe droughts could cause havoc. One is already long overdue. Scan closely weather reports from the nation's "bread basket. ZL. The demand for goods will year than it will be during the last close to current high levels during tt. Total pay rolls will hold well, with prospects favoring a slight drop during the late months of 1953. 23. Farm gross income will strengthen along seasonal lines during the first four or five months of look for a lower farm income during 24. The trend of wholesale commodity prices will remain In a basic long-term downswing. Look many groups during the early part you. t5. Unless more international troubles or drought strike hard, livirur costs should average some lower in 1953 than in 1952. Here again, the tapering -off will occur RETAIL t. Over-all trade in 1953 will physical volume is concerned, with totals. The most attractive -merchandising Investments should be: (1) Super-market groceries: (2) stores; and (4) Department stores, most congested cities. 27. Demand for capital goods 1953. A definite slowing, however, sales of consumer-durables should were restricted by the steel strike. 23. Movement of soft goods during 1953 should be about the same as during 1952. Some freshening of demand in the early months may be offset later, by a renewed lull. REAL ESTATE 29. Barring World War III, rent controls will be a thing of the past in most areas by the end of 1953. 26." Home building will be less in 1953. Prices may weaken dur ing the latter part of the year. Building costs should edge lower. Only, small new houses will be in demand. t SL In my opinion the cost of mortgage rnoney will tend some what higher during 1953. . 2 t 22. Construction of municipal and public works should rise mod erately In 1953 as compared with 1952. This may be stepped up sharp ly late in the year if business falters. There may be a surplus of tax-free bonds. y S3. A moderate slide-off in the sale of commercial farm prop erties can be expected. No bad break, however, seems likely In 1953. Tear of World War HI, moreover, should help farm prices. 3. Population trend Is away from the big cities. Fear of possi ble bombing and automoblle cvercrowding will continue as a drag on city realty values Continued migration from the urban centers will help suburban properties. - Fawolls price controls to help prom margins. I both arms and civilian needs. wall against inefficient operators and stay out front In his market. find fewer jobs as 1953 moves along. PEACE made on the assumption that World year. However, I want to make it Stalin diet or retires. This time we will have another in the struggle for World Peace to wfn the peace. We shall need business activity. been a powerful "shot in the arm' years. I predict that in 1953 loan force will be absent next year conservatism is not measured by the Democrats. It results from the fact bureaus and commissions. Will be at the service of the Re shall see the use of these bureaus problem for the workers of the 1953. The demand for and the good balance. Later, however, un its highest point toward the end down on their heads the legisla labor turmoil would surely result read Into the Act. All in ail. I 1953. I am urging my friends and their their jobs. They should not be labor. Early 1953 should be used War. I anticipate few shortages be stronger in the first half of the half. Disposable Income will hold the first naif of iw. 1953. If we then avoid drought, I the second half of the year. for temporary price recoveries in of 1953, but do not let them fool late, not early in the year. TRADE be close to 1952 levels as far as a moderate decline in dollar Variety chains; (3) Mail order excepting a few in the largest and will hold strong during most of win take place at some time. 1953 about equal 1352 s total sales, which Will Stay 25. For those who plan buying new homes in 1953, I strongly urge the purchase of acreage in suitable suburban areas. Surely, the H-bomb experiments should quicken the trend toward subsistence rarzns. St. As public housing programs congress will not promote such priming becomes much greater. TAX EASING ' 27. Tax relief will come mostly from expiration of present laws rather than from a new enlightened tax program: Barring further international problems, the present be permitted to expire at the end 32. If th need for new taxes the excess-profita tax, the new Congress may consider additional ex cise or manufacturers sales taxes. age consumer spending, if the war 39. State and local taxes may mere during the year 1953. However, I do not look for total advances in such to w so great in 1953 as they were in 1952. 41. There will be no increase but read paragraph 40 below. Income taxes may be reduced. FOREIGN TRADE OUTLOOK 4L Exports will fall again in much less than in exports. The new Administration will be urged to promote foreign trade Instead of foreign aid. Only by buying our neighbors' goods can we get them off the relief rolls. To save our selves, I predict, we will buy more abroad, although this will be hard on some United States manufacturers. 42. I look for no change in the official United States buying price for gold. We won't "monkey-with the mint price of gold until the nation gets really "hard up." PROFITS PROSPECTS, STOCKS AND BONDS 43. For the year as a whole I look for business profits to be slightly lower than in 1952. Earnings will be better during the early months, with a decline occurring later in the year. Profit margins will be cut by stiff er competition from both domestic and foreign sources. 44. Recently upped wages, plus some additional 1953 boosts, will also put heavier cost pressure on profits. 45. Some companies that have been hard hit by excess-profits taxes may show improved earnings when the excess-profits tax ex pires June 30. 44. Thererill be a cushion under falling profits provided by the current very high tax rates- If profits slide, Uncle Sam will share the heavier loss. This very fact, however, will make it difficult for Congress to reduce the rate of taxation. 47. Stocks are high historically. We are approaching the end of a long period of prosperity, much of which is based upon artificial measures. Therefore, sometime during 1953-.! forecast lower stock prices than exist today. 1 SHOULD BUILD UP RESERVES 48. Yet, do not forget that the stock market was at about the same price point when President Hoover won by a landslide in 1928. With business prospects good for early 1953, confidence might again cause a temporary boom. If an "Eisenhower bull market" develops, I strongly urge readers to take profits and build up reserves. Within 12 months after Hoover entered the White House the Industrial Aver ages fell 100 points. 49. New administration will not favor "soft money" policy. Therefore, some further rise in interest rates seems probable. For this reason, I favor high-grade, short-term bonds, rather than long-term. 50. Finally: Wise investors are taking no action unless prepared to follow a carefully planned aad supervised investment program. The keystone of this program will, In 1953 as In 1952, prove to be a policy of diversification and selectivity. Among those groups which offer safety and good yield are certain fire insurance stocks, bank stocks, variety chain store stocks, food processing companies, and telephone companies. Even these may fail us unless our nation has a real spiritual awakening. This must include both you and me. (Copyright 1953, Publishers Courthouse, High School Help Set Salem Building Record Beginning eeastractlen mm a new Marion County eeurthease, a new high school and numerous business, hospital, church and private building helped make 1952 the heavies eoiutreeUoa year In Salem's history. When this month's figures are released by the city engineer's office the total amount of build ing permits Issued this year will approximate fie.5A0.tOe. This shades considerably the previous all-time high ef $7,912,963, reached in 1948. Salem building during 1951 fell more than S2,0t,0ee below the $7,658,042 volnxno ef 1950. The largest building permit Queen Elizabeth Time Magazine's 'Woman of Year' NEW YORK uB Queen Eliza beth II of England is "woman of the year for 1952" on the dbver of Time magazine this week the third woman to be so selected. Time, which appears Wednesday with a cover portrait of Eliza Natural Dock BAFFIN BAT The Oast Guard's tural dock of Ice in Baffle Bay while crew members attempt te satisfy aa urge te bodOi mm Eskimo igloo frets blocks of fee. The EastMrind waited 2a the Ice while dog teaaas carried an ailiris of a kydrographla mtrrlea to the lee-bound Baffin Island ta the Canad ian Northwest territories last summer. The Eastwind was blocked ay leo too heavy for it to break three. 25 saOes trans the Baffin (AP Wlreproto High v. 2 Cut in Living Cost are far behind schedule, the new in 1953 unless the need for pump- WILL BE SLIGHT corporate excess-profits tax will of June, 1953. continues high, after expiration of They may also serve to discour danger becomes acute. be increased moderately here an? in capital-gains taxes during 1953; 1953. The drop in imports will be Financial Bureau, Inc.) ever issued in Salem came in November, 1952, when a permit for the 23,067,699 new South Salem High School was granted. November's 93,684.624 total was the Talghest monthly figure ever attained in this city. Other largo scale projects la 1952 included permits for the courthouse, $172.156; new wing for the Salem General Hospital. 2800,000: new YWCA bvtldinr. 8375,000; Oregon: Statesman plant. 2300,606: St. Joseph's Catholic Church, $326,000, and new Sa lem Memorial Hospital, $306,000. and repairs mm First Methodist Church. $160,000. beth, selects each year the per son considered most newsworthy "tor good or III." xne only otner women to ap pear on the year-end cover since the selection began in 1927 have been the Duchess of Windsor in 1936, the year King Edward gave up his throne for her, and Ma dams Chiang Kai-Shek, who ap peared with the generalissimo on the 1937 cover for their leader ship after China was Invaded. for. Icebreaker $ v - Ci Icebreaker Eastwind rests fat a na te Tke Stiff ) : s - . V Vr" '4 I :3 rAKIS Vetera politician Geerges Jranee. gives his views te newsmen eat the steve ef . Paris, after seeing President Vincent Auriol whe asked him te try te farm a aew government. Aariel called ea Bidaan swr j- Seustelle, DeGaalle spokeian. failed la hJta attearot to iee to gether a cabinet to aaceee that Bidault also announced he eeald via radie from Parts.) " B-29s Brave Jets, Ack-Ack To Pound Plant SEOUL UP B-29 Superforts smashed a big Communist ere!- pro cessing plant and a sprawling mu nitions dump deep in North Korea Tuesday night in the face of heavy anti-aircraft nre and Red jet night fighters. Twenty-one big bombers dumped more than 200 tons of explosives on the huge, Choak-Tong ore process ing plant 25 miles south of the Yalu River and an 85-acre muni tions dump northwest of Sinanju, the Fifth Air Force said. Returning crews reported their bomb runs were "good to excel- ent." Anti-aircraft fire ranged from meager to heavy. Communist let night fighters made firing passes at the bombers over both targets. It was not announced whether any Allied bombers were hit. The Choak-Tong ore processing plant, 25 miles southwest of Uiju, had 60 buildings scattered over 105 acres. Troop billets and supply stockpiles also were bombed. The supply center eight miles northwest of Sinanju contained 50 one-story buildings, four big bar racks and an administration build ing. Elsewhere. B-28 light bombers shot up five Communist locomo tives and bagged 55 supply trucks and 16 boxcars in night forays, the Air Force said. On the battlefront, smJl Com munist units-probed lonely Allied outposts on the West and Central fronts Tuesday. Two unidentified planes flew over beoul Tuesday night. The South Korean capital was blacked out for 40 minutes and Allied anti aircraft batteries went into action. No bombs were dropped. 70 Youths Start 2-State Church Meet About 70 young men and women of Pilgrim Holiness Churches in western Oregon and Washington opened a three-day convention Tuesday evening at Salem's Pil grim Holiness Church on Carle ton Way. They sang under the direction of John Larson, Arlington, Wasb, and heard the opening sermon by the Rev. Roy Dworschak, Molalla, executive secretary for youth of the church's Northwest District. Many communities of the Salem, Eugene, Medford areas and of Washington were represented by the opening day attendance. There were several visitors from Idaho. After a full day of panel discus sions and other get-togethers Wednesday, the convention group will open Watchnight services at 7:30 p. m. Features will include a sermon by the Rev. E. W. Burton, pastor of Portland's First Pilgrim Holiness Church; a musical pro gram; talks by Ruth Sutter, Salem, a Seattle Pacific College student, and Nancy FendalL Raymond, Wash., University of Washington student; special performance by the Gospel Light instrumental trio led by Lyle Leach, Salem, and a rnidnizht prayer service. The convention will end Thurs day with a 7:30 p. m. worship service including sermon by the Rev. William S. Deal, Salem, dis trict superintendent who Is in charge of the convention program. E. L. Trallinger, 92, of Pioneer Family, Succumbs PORTLAND (fl Edward Lane Trullinger, 92, member of a pioneer Oregon family, cued here Monday. His grandfather, vaniei, came to Oregon in 1848, settling in the Waldo Hills section near Salem. Trullinger at one time was a leading hop grower near Eagle Creek. He also took part in the operation of a lumber mill and flour min in the area. Two sons and a daughter survive Funeral services wfll be held Friday at Estaeada. PONT T&ETTJKES TOO DRUMHELLER, Canada UPi When miner Charles Dunn re tired from the pits, he brought his 14-year-old pit pony out too. The pony proves she is still a willing worker by occasionally pulling a harrow over the acre of garden her master is cultivating. BkUalt, twice hef ere premier ef ef mined Rem Plnar. Taeadav net farm a cabinet. (AP Wlrepheto Bidault Fails In Cabinet Try PARIS W1 Former Premier Georges Bidault Tuesday night gave up his attempt to form a government and dropped France's Cabinet crisis back into the lap of President Vincent Auriol. Bidault began his attempt Mon day. He failed because several leading parties in Parliament re fused to go along with h's demand for. wider powers in governing the country. Bidault. 53, leader of the main- fly Catholic Popular Republican Movement (MRP), was the third political leader whom Auriol had asked to try to form a govern ment since Antolne Pinay resigned a week ago. 205 Inmates Donate Blood At Penitentiary j Two' hundred and five prisoners of the Oregon State Penitentiary rolled up their sleeves Tuesday and donated a total of 196 - pints of blood at a Red Cross bloodmo bile drawing in the prison. The volunteer donors gave an average of one pint for every 7.5 men. Average for Marion County has been approximately one pint for every 201 people. In addition to the 196 pints col lected Tuesday, prisoners have contributed 28 pints in the last two months to local hospitals to meet emergencies. Arrangements have been made through the local Red Cross Chap ter with Warden Virgil O'Malley to keep a list of volunteer donors of various blood types. When an emergency call comes in from any the hospitals, the penitentiary physician, Dr. E. O. Muhs, draws the needed amount and sees it reaches the right peo ple. Local merchants supplied cigar ettes, candy, fruitcake, cookies and coffee at yesterday's drawing. Next blood drawing for the pub lic will be in Salem Thursday, Jan. 8. Cofferdam Failure Nearly Kills Man CORVALLIS ufl A bridge cofferdam collapsed near here Tuesday and water poured in. trapping Leonard Sauber, 45, of Hillsboro. He was snatched from death by his son, Donald, and another work man, Virgil Alexander, Corvallis, who dove into the water and pulled him free after some groping under the surface. He was hospitalized! with a leg injury, but was recvo- ering. - Invalid Saves umm LOS ANGELES Miss Helen Evans, at"ltTV gelea home only the day before from a kaspltal where aha had ua Beveriy Sastth. after they eeuaswd from a fire which swept their mas Evans, although tpea a metal screen aad helped the child ante the beading's sloping roof ; where te safety. (AP Wh-ephote ta 12 Per Cent: in '52 WASHINGTON UP) Frm prices declined three per cent la December, ending the year 12 per cent below December. 1951 levels and raising the possibility that the incoming Eisenhower administra tion will have a farm problem on its hands. In its regular monthly price re port, the Agriculture Department Program Given SharpRebiike WASHINGTON (J) A House committee charged Tuesday- that the multi - million - dollar Alaskan military housing program has been "marked by trial and error and considerable lack of expert knowledge. In a knuckle-rapping report. congressional investigators large ly blamed the corps of Army En gineers, criticizing its "easy go ing attitude" toward construction defects. ine report was filed by a spec ial subcommittee of the House committee on government opera tions. Chairman Holifield (D.-Cal- if.), conducted hearings in Alaska this fall. xne committee not' an un even 'approach to the austerity goal in. Alaskan housing,", citing unsuit able design, materials and cons truction methods "to meet econ omy demands and military needs." The report criticizes the Alaska District of the Army Engineers for "serious weakness in contract administration," including lax su pervision and inspection of con tractor performance. The total posgfrar construction program for the territory was esti mated to exceed one billion dol lars, with the military housing pro gram amounting to approximately 212 million. Military housing is centered chiefly at Ladd and Eielson Air Force bases in the Fairbanks area, and Fort Richardson near Anchorage. Asserting a "material reduction of unit costs could and must be made." the committee criticized hurriedly prepared housing de signs, "unrealistic" requirements for foundations and footings in Arctic and semi-Arctic regions. unusually poor contractor per formance, lack of suitable inspec tions and cost accounting, use of inadequate building substitutes, and failure to properly plan for utilities. The committee found mat non military government . housings un der the Federal Housing Adminis tration is more austere than mili tary construction but tlll affords quite satisfactory and attractive quarters." Builders to Get Additional Steel WASHINGTON UP) The gov- era merit announced Tuesday a rec ord allocation of structural steel 1,692.000 tons will be distribut ed to the nation s bunders for the second quarter of 1953. It is the biggest allocation made since the defense mobilization pro gram began more than two years ago. The Defense Production Admin istration said the new steel ration assures a speed-up next spring in expansion of vital public services highways, bridges, power, bar ges, railroad cars and locomotives. Bridge Opens At Wrong Time LONDON UR The famous Tow er Bridge over the Thames sud denly began opening Tuesday night with a passenger bus astride Its two lifting sections. Fourteen persons were injured slightly when thrown into a heap at the front of the bus as it slid safely to the far side of the bridge. Self and Child : v 41. whe returned te her Los An- she had aeea warned against erer- firesaca found them and removed Alaska Housing said Tuesday that prices received by farmers had dipped for four consecutive months to put them at the lowest level in over two years. The prices also were 15 per cent below the peak reached in Febru ary. 1951. and considerably below the pa-ity price goal of farm pro grams Inaugurated by the Roose velt and Truman adnunistrationa. The department itself gave no explanation in its report for the price setbacks. But previous state ments have attributed them to this year's record production of farm commodities, losses in export markets, and increased costs cf processing and Marketing farm commodities. Income Declines ' This year's decline in prices has been accompanied by a slight de crease in farm income and by of ficial forecasts of further income -losses in 1953 losses which the new Republican administration un doubtedly will seek to hold to a minimum. , The price declines also have been accompanied, by the i move ment of large quantities o farm products into government price support stocks. Losses in overseas markets have largely reflected the facts that farm production in other parts of the world is. larger than last year, and countries which hereto fore have been goaL customers for U.S. gram, cotton, tobacco and other products are short of dol lars. Other Prices Stable . The farm price situation is ag gravated by the further fact that prices paid by producers for goodi, materials and services used in production and in living have not dropped correspondingly with farm prices. In fact, these prices did not change during the past month and are only about 3 per cent down from a year ago. Farm prices as a hols averag ed 96 per cent of parity in mid- December, compared,' with 99 per cent in mid-November, 107 per cent a year ago and a record of 122 per cent in October, 1946. Par ity is a standard for measuring farm prices,! declared by law to be equally fair to farmers and those who , buy their products. The department said meat ani mal prices closed the year down 26 per cent from the 1952 peak' reached in May and 32 per cent down from the record reached in 1951. The only commodities which brought an average of parity or more in December were rice, po tatoes, rye. grain sorghums, sweet potatoes and apples. Hogs were down to 76 per. cent of parity a level which is caus ing farmers to reduce production. An official survey recently Indi cated that ' pig production next spring would be down 15 per cent. Such products as wheat.' corn and peanuts were below govern ment prvco support levels.! Rosenbergs May Get Stay NEW YORK UP The Judge who doomed the Rosenberg a km spy team indicated Tuesday he may delay execution to give them time for a White House appeal. This raised the Dossibilitr that the fate of Julius Rosenberg and his wife, Ethel, may eventually reach President-elect Eisenhower, who takes office Jan. 20.. The Rosenbergs are scheduled to die the previous week prob ably Jan. 15 in the Sing Sins; Prison electric chair for conspir ing to betray atom secrets to Rue- ' sia. They are the first Americans ever so condemned in a civil court. Federal Judge Irving R. Kauf man indicated the 'delay In the midst of clemency hearing Tues day. ( Morton Named Dulles Aide NEW YORK UPl V eildent-tlect Eisenhower Tuesday chose Rep. Thurston Ballard Morton, Ken tucky Republican, as an assistant secretary of state in the new ad ministration. . The general also said he wag naming - Herman Phleger, San Francisco attorney, as legal ad visor to John Foster Dulles, sec retary of state-designate 1 Ike-Nixon Fund Rebates Planned NEW YORK UP Contributors to Citizens for Eisenhower-Nixon during the - recent presidential campaign will soon - sta:t getting some of their money back. The volunteer organization an nounced Tuesday night it had a surplus of almost 6300,000. The money win be returned te soma 20,000 contributors, the an nouncement said, on the basis of 16 cents on a dollar. Checks for the rebates win start going out Friday. .. Selective Service Okehi Draft of 19-Year-Oias WASHINGTON CD Selective Service said Tuesday that any ol its state directors who find it nec essary to draft 19-year-olds to fill upcoming calls for the armed forc es may do so. An official told a reporter be X13 not know how many states wouLi be forced to take 19-year-olds ta meet the call for 5300 men for the Army In February "but it wLl be several. Soma animals are sensitive ta light although they tiava no do tectable eyes. i