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About The daily Astorian. (Astoria, Or.) 1961-current | View Entire Issue (Dec. 28, 2019)
B5 THE ASTORIAN • SATURDAY, DECEMBER 28, 2019 At each end of Pacifi c, skepticism He insists on over China farm purchases hugs at church By JOSH FUNK, PAUL WISEMAN and JOE McDONALD Associated Press OMAHA, Neb. — Pres- ident Donald Trump likes to joke that America’s farm- ers have a nice problem on their hands: They’re going to need bigger tractors to keep up with surging Chi- nese demand for their soy- beans and other agricultural goods under a preliminary deal between the world’s two largest economies. But will they really? From Beijing to Ameri- ca’s farm belt, skeptics are questioning just how much China has actually commit- ted to buy — and whether U.S. farmers would be able anytime soon to export goods there in the outsize quantity that Trump has promised. It amounts to $40 billion a year, according to Trump’s trade representative, Rob- ert Lighthizer. If you ask the exuberant president himself, though, the total is actually “much more than’’ $50 bil- lion. To put that in perspec- tive, U.S. farm exports to China have never topped $26 billion in any one year. What’s more, since Trump’s trade war with Bei- jing erupted last year, China has increased its farm pur- chases from Brazil, Argen- tina and other countries. As a result, Beijing may now be locked into contracts it couldn’t break even if it intended to quickly increase its purchases of American agricultural goods to some- thing approximating $40 billion. “History has never been even close to that level,” said Chad Hart, an agricul- tural economist at Iowa State University. “There’s no clear path to get us there in one year.” “The fi gure of $40 bil- lion,” added Cui Fan, a trade specialist at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, “is larger than I expected, and I wonder whether the United States can ensure the full sup- ply of the products.” America’s farmers would surely like to. The farm belt has endured much of the impact from Beijing’s retal- iatory tariffs since July 2018, when the Trump administra- tion imposed taxes on $360 billion in Chinese imports. Beijing struck back by taxing $120 billion in U.S. exports, including soybeans and other farm goods that are vital to many of Trump’s supporters in rural America. The impact from China’s retaliatory tariffs was sub- stantial: U.S. farm exports to China, which hit a record $25.9 billion in 2012, plum- meted last year to $9.1 bil- lion. Soybean exports to China fell even more — to a 12-year low of $3.1 billion, according to the Department of Agriculture. Farm imports to China have rebounded somewhat this year but remain well below pre-trade- war levels . The so-called Phase 1 deal that the two sides announced Dec. 13 did manage to de-es- calate the standoff and offer at least a respite to Ameri- can farmers. Yet the truce put off for future negotiations the toughest and most complex issue at the heart of the trade war: The Trump administra- tion’s assertion that Beijing cheats in its drive to achieve global supremacy in such advanced technologies as driver-less cars and artifi cial intelligence. The administration alleges — and independent analysts generally agree — that China steals technology, forces for- eign companies to hand over trade secrets, unfairly sub- sidizes its own fi rms and throws up bureaucratic hur- dles for foreign rivals. Bei- jing has rejected the accusa- tions and contended that the administration is instead try- ing to suppress a rising com- petitor in international trade. Under the preliminary U.S.-China deal, Trump sus- pended his plan to impose new tariffs and reduced some existing taxes on Chi- nese imports. In return, Ligh- thizer said, China agreed to buy $40 billion a year in U.S. farm exports over two years, among other things. Bei- jing also committed to end- ing its long-standing prac- tice of pressuring foreign companies to hand over their technology as a condition of gaining access to the Chinese market. Many farmers say they’re hopeful but restrained in their expectations. “At this point, we have to wait to see more details,” said Jeff Jorgensen, who farms about 3,000 acres in south- west Iowa. Yet the Trump administra- tion has released no text of the agreement. And a fact sheet that Lighthizer’s offi ce issued didn’t specify the target for increased Chinese farm pur- chases. What’s more, Beijing has so far declined to confi rm the $40 billion fi gure. “After the agreement is offi cially signed, the con- tents of the agreement will be announced to the public,” said Gao Feng, a spokesman for the Commerce Ministry. Still, Chinese imports of U.S. soybeans more than doubled in November after the Phase 1 agreement was initially announced in mid-October — a sign that reduced tensions might have begun to ease the strain on American farmers, according to AWeb.com, a news web- site that serves China’s farm- ing industry. Beijing insists, though, that its farm purchases will be based on consumer demand and market prices, pointedly implying that it won’t buy more than it needs just to sat- isfy the Trump administra- tion’s promises. “The purchases should be based on market principles,” said Tu Xinquan, director of the China Institute for WTO Studies in Beijing. “The United States should com- pete with other countries through price and quality.” Some analysts suggest that it’s at least theoretically possible for the U.S. to boost its farm exports to China to something close to the fi g- ures the administration has promised. Flora Zhu, asso- ciate director of China cor- porate research at Fitch Rat- ings, calls the $40 billion “achievable.’’ She notes, for example, that China’s demand for soy- beans amounts to $40 billion a year. Even before the trade war, the U.S. supplied about a third of that total — sug- gesting, Zhu said, that “there is still large room for China to increase its purchases of soybeans from the U.S.” In addition, China’s demand for imported pork has intensifi ed because its own pig herds have been decimated by an outbreak of African swine fever. Yet that same outbreak could reduce China’s need for American soybeans: Fewer hogs could mean less demand for soy- beans and other sources of feed. But achieving $40 billion a year would likely require diverting market share away from other countries — Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, New Zealand — that export sizable quantities of farm goods to China. Those nations could then argue to the World Trade Orga- nization that they are los- ing exports not because they can’t compete but because China is being coerced into buying American to avoid Trump’s tariffs. Happy Holidays from Us! Dear Annie: There is children, so I presume he an elderly man who attends isn’t lonely. He seems to get daily Mass at my church. He plenty of hugs from the other insists on hugging many of women at church. I should add that I am the women after Mass as they leave the church. He is a nice married and in my 60s. My man, and I don’t think he’s husband and I have a happy up to anything creepy. I think marriage and great intimacy. he’s probably a throwback I am affectionate with all my to the ’70s when “hugging” kids — including plenty of was a big thing in churches hugging, especially with my grandchildren. I wind in particular. up leaving Mass feel- I, on the other DEAR ing guilty for having hand, do not like ANNIE to insist on boundar- hugging people I ies with this man. — hardly know. I feel Not a Hugger strongly that 1) Dear Not a Hug- physical displays of ger: This man needs affection should be to learn to take reserved for people “no, thanks” for an you are friendly with (e.g., family, close ANNIE LANE answer. No matter Creators his intentions, it’s friends, etc.) and 2) Syndicate Inc. inappropriate for him if a person says, “I to insist on hugging prefer not to hug,” that should settle it. I’m not you after you’ve told him saying this man has ulte- that you’d rather he not. And rior motives; I just would it makes my jaw drop that he like for my boundaries to be would interrupt your prayers to do this. accepted. The next time he moves I have told this man politely but in no uncer- in for a hug when you’ve tain terms, “I am not a hug- extended your hand for a ger.” I have put out my hand handshake, don’t feel bad to shake his hand before he backing away and taking all can go in for the hug, but he the space you need. If he feels insists on brushing my hand embarrassed, that’s his own aside and hugging me any- fault. You are not being rude. way. It’s as if he thinks he’s He is being disrespectful. Dear Annie: Regarding going to “cure” me of what- ever he thinks is my problem. the letter from “Grandma This has been an ongoing Blindsided by Mental Health problem for several years. I Issue,” about living with a have tried staying in my pew person with obsessive-com- and praying until he leaves, pulsive disorder, please rec- but he often hovers not far ommend NAMI, National off until I depart. Some- Alliance on Mental Illness. times he has even come over I am on the board of NAMI and interrupted my prayer to Spokane. I got involved because our adult son has solicit that “hug.” I am not a mean person. OCD and depression. NAMI I sometimes just give in and has many affi liates through- give this man a hug. I am out the United States. We never unkind. Yet I know he offer classes and support takes it personally that I am groups for both families and not eager to greet him with those with mental illness. All a hug every time I see him. programs are free. Most of As for why he is so needy, I these programs are funded really don’t know. I know he through memberships, dona- is married and has four adult tions and grants. — Gretchen children and several grand- M. in Spokane, WA Bad weather driving is on the way. Be prepared. Del’s OK Tire Factory will get your vehicle ready for the cold, wet and slick weather ahead. Come see us! 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