B5
THE ASTORIAN • SATURDAY, DECEMBER 28, 2019
At each end of Pacifi c, skepticism He insists on
over China farm purchases
hugs at church
By JOSH FUNK, PAUL
WISEMAN and
JOE McDONALD
Associated Press
OMAHA, Neb. — Pres-
ident Donald Trump likes
to joke that America’s farm-
ers have a nice problem on
their hands: They’re going
to need bigger tractors to
keep up with surging Chi-
nese demand for their soy-
beans and other agricultural
goods under a preliminary
deal between the world’s two
largest economies.
But will they really?
From Beijing to Ameri-
ca’s farm belt, skeptics are
questioning just how much
China has actually commit-
ted to buy — and whether
U.S. farmers would be able
anytime soon to export goods
there in the outsize quantity
that Trump has promised.
It amounts to $40 billion
a year, according to Trump’s
trade representative, Rob-
ert Lighthizer. If you ask the
exuberant president himself,
though, the total is actually
“much more than’’ $50 bil-
lion. To put that in perspec-
tive, U.S. farm exports to
China have never topped $26
billion in any one year.
What’s more, since
Trump’s trade war with Bei-
jing erupted last year, China
has increased its farm pur-
chases from Brazil, Argen-
tina and other countries. As
a result, Beijing may now
be locked into contracts it
couldn’t break even if it
intended to quickly increase
its purchases of American
agricultural goods to some-
thing approximating $40
billion.
“History has never been
even close to that level,”
said Chad Hart, an agricul-
tural economist at Iowa State
University. “There’s no clear
path to get us there in one
year.”
“The fi gure of $40 bil-
lion,” added Cui Fan, a trade
specialist at the University of
International Business and
Economics in Beijing, “is
larger than I expected, and I
wonder whether the United
States can ensure the full sup-
ply of the products.”
America’s farmers would
surely like to. The farm belt
has endured much of the
impact from Beijing’s retal-
iatory tariffs since July 2018,
when the Trump administra-
tion imposed taxes on $360
billion in Chinese imports.
Beijing struck back by taxing
$120 billion in U.S. exports,
including soybeans and other
farm goods that are vital to
many of Trump’s supporters
in rural America.
The impact from China’s
retaliatory tariffs was sub-
stantial: U.S. farm exports
to China, which hit a record
$25.9 billion in 2012, plum-
meted last year to $9.1 bil-
lion. Soybean exports to
China fell even more — to a
12-year low of $3.1 billion,
according to the Department
of Agriculture. Farm imports
to China have rebounded
somewhat this year but
remain well below pre-trade-
war levels .
The so-called Phase 1 deal
that the two sides announced
Dec. 13 did manage to de-es-
calate the standoff and offer
at least a respite to Ameri-
can farmers. Yet the truce put
off for future negotiations the
toughest and most complex
issue at the heart of the trade
war: The Trump administra-
tion’s assertion that Beijing
cheats in its drive to achieve
global supremacy in such
advanced technologies as
driver-less cars and artifi cial
intelligence.
The administration alleges
— and independent analysts
generally agree — that China
steals technology, forces for-
eign companies to hand over
trade secrets, unfairly sub-
sidizes its own fi rms and
throws up bureaucratic hur-
dles for foreign rivals. Bei-
jing has rejected the accusa-
tions and contended that the
administration is instead try-
ing to suppress a rising com-
petitor in international trade.
Under the preliminary
U.S.-China deal, Trump sus-
pended his plan to impose
new tariffs and reduced
some existing taxes on Chi-
nese imports. In return, Ligh-
thizer said, China agreed to
buy $40 billion a year in U.S.
farm exports over two years,
among other things. Bei-
jing also committed to end-
ing its long-standing prac-
tice of pressuring foreign
companies to hand over their
technology as a condition of
gaining access to the Chinese
market.
Many farmers say they’re
hopeful but restrained in their
expectations.
“At this point, we have to
wait to see more details,” said
Jeff Jorgensen, who farms
about 3,000 acres in south-
west Iowa.
Yet the Trump administra-
tion has released no text of the
agreement. And a fact sheet
that Lighthizer’s offi ce issued
didn’t specify the target for
increased Chinese farm pur-
chases. What’s more, Beijing
has so far declined to confi rm
the $40 billion fi gure.
“After the agreement is
offi cially signed, the con-
tents of the agreement will
be announced to the public,”
said Gao Feng, a spokesman
for the Commerce Ministry.
Still, Chinese imports
of U.S. soybeans more
than doubled in November
after the Phase 1 agreement
was initially announced in
mid-October — a sign that
reduced tensions might have
begun to ease the strain on
American farmers, according
to AWeb.com, a news web-
site that serves China’s farm-
ing industry.
Beijing insists, though,
that its farm purchases will be
based on consumer demand
and market prices, pointedly
implying that it won’t buy
more than it needs just to sat-
isfy the Trump administra-
tion’s promises.
“The purchases should be
based on market principles,”
said Tu Xinquan, director of
the China Institute for WTO
Studies in Beijing. “The
United States should com-
pete with other countries
through price and quality.”
Some analysts suggest
that it’s at least theoretically
possible for the U.S. to boost
its farm exports to China to
something close to the fi g-
ures the administration has
promised. Flora Zhu, asso-
ciate director of China cor-
porate research at Fitch Rat-
ings, calls the $40 billion
“achievable.’’
She notes, for example,
that China’s demand for soy-
beans amounts to $40 billion
a year. Even before the trade
war, the U.S. supplied about
a third of that total — sug-
gesting, Zhu said, that “there
is still large room for China
to increase its purchases of
soybeans from the U.S.”
In addition, China’s
demand for imported pork
has intensifi ed because its
own pig herds have been
decimated by an outbreak of
African swine fever. Yet that
same outbreak could reduce
China’s need for American
soybeans: Fewer hogs could
mean less demand for soy-
beans and other sources of
feed.
But achieving $40 billion
a year would likely require
diverting market share away
from other countries —
Argentina, Australia, Brazil,
Canada, New Zealand — that
export sizable quantities of
farm goods to China. Those
nations could then argue
to the World Trade Orga-
nization that they are los-
ing exports not because they
can’t compete but because
China is being coerced into
buying American to avoid
Trump’s tariffs.
Happy Holidays from Us!
Dear Annie: There is children, so I presume he
an elderly man who attends isn’t lonely. He seems to get
daily Mass at my church. He plenty of hugs from the other
insists on hugging many of women at church.
I should add that I am
the women after Mass as they
leave the church. He is a nice married and in my 60s. My
man, and I don’t think he’s husband and I have a happy
up to anything creepy. I think marriage and great intimacy.
he’s probably a throwback I am affectionate with all my
to the ’70s when “hugging” kids — including plenty of
was a big thing in churches hugging, especially with my
grandchildren. I wind
in particular.
up leaving Mass feel-
I, on the other
DEAR
ing guilty for having
hand, do not like
ANNIE
to insist on boundar-
hugging people I
ies with this man. —
hardly know. I feel
Not a Hugger
strongly that 1)
Dear Not a Hug-
physical displays of
ger: This man needs
affection should be
to learn to take
reserved for people
“no, thanks” for an
you are friendly with
(e.g., family, close ANNIE LANE answer. No matter
Creators
his intentions, it’s
friends, etc.) and 2)
Syndicate Inc.
inappropriate for him
if a person says, “I
to insist on hugging
prefer not to hug,”
that should settle it. I’m not you after you’ve told him
saying this man has ulte- that you’d rather he not. And
rior motives; I just would it makes my jaw drop that he
like for my boundaries to be would interrupt your prayers
to do this.
accepted.
The next time he moves
I have told this man
politely but in no uncer- in for a hug when you’ve
tain terms, “I am not a hug- extended your hand for a
ger.” I have put out my hand handshake, don’t feel bad
to shake his hand before he backing away and taking all
can go in for the hug, but he the space you need. If he feels
insists on brushing my hand embarrassed, that’s his own
aside and hugging me any- fault. You are not being rude.
way. It’s as if he thinks he’s He is being disrespectful.
Dear Annie: Regarding
going to “cure” me of what-
ever he thinks is my problem. the letter from “Grandma
This has been an ongoing Blindsided by Mental Health
problem for several years. I Issue,” about living with a
have tried staying in my pew person with obsessive-com-
and praying until he leaves, pulsive disorder, please rec-
but he often hovers not far ommend NAMI, National
off until I depart. Some- Alliance on Mental Illness.
times he has even come over I am on the board of NAMI
and interrupted my prayer to Spokane. I got involved
because our adult son has
solicit that “hug.”
I am not a mean person. OCD and depression. NAMI
I sometimes just give in and has many affi liates through-
give this man a hug. I am out the United States. We
never unkind. Yet I know he offer classes and support
takes it personally that I am groups for both families and
not eager to greet him with those with mental illness. All
a hug every time I see him. programs are free. Most of
As for why he is so needy, I these programs are funded
really don’t know. I know he through memberships, dona-
is married and has four adult tions and grants. — Gretchen
children and several grand- M. in Spokane, WA
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