The daily Astorian. (Astoria, Or.) 1961-current, June 22, 2019, WEEKEND EDITION, Image 8

The daily Astorian., June 22, 2019, WEEKEND EDITION, Page A8, Image 8

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Newspaper Page TextA8 THE ASTORIAN • SATURDAY, JUNE 22, 2019 Wildﬁ res: Nationwide, the wildﬁ re season this year has already been busy U.S. wildﬁres and acres burned, June * Continued from Page A1 Nationwide, the wildﬁ re season this year has already been busy, although not as busy as in 2018. Year to date through June 17, the number of wildﬁ res nationwide totaled 17,118 burning 459,776 acres, the ﬁ re center reported. That’s down from 25,661 ﬁ res burning slightly more than 1.8 million acres during the ﬁ rst six months of last year. As of last week, six large ﬁ res each were burning in Alaska and Arizona; two each in Washington state and Cali- fornia; three in New Mexico; and one in Florida. Regional outlook In the Northwest, the ﬁ re center predicts the potential for signiﬁ cant large ﬁ res will be normal with the exception of the coastal areas and far n orthern Idaho and Montana. In California, the ﬁ re cen- ter expects above-normal ﬁ re risk in June and July in the San Francisco Bay Area, Sacramento Valley and cen- tral coast, the exception being the mountainous Mendocino National Forest, which will be normal. For August and September, normal or above-normal ﬁ re risk is forecast for the northern half of the state. Bryan Henry, meteorol- ogist and acting ﬁ re weather program manager for NIFC Predictive Services, said year- to-date moisture was above normal in California and in much of s outhern Idaho and Eastern Oregon. That will produce a robust crop of grass and other ﬁ ne fuels that keeps rangeland ﬁ reﬁ ghters busy later in the season, when tem- peratures rise. He also expects a late start for the timberland ﬁ re season, especially at higher elevations. A late, heavy snowpack and lingering colder-than-normal weather have kept fuels wet longer. But the drier timberland areas in northwestern Oregon and in Washington state, and Acres burned (millions of acres) Wash. 5 Mont. 50,000 45,408 4.3 Ore. *Year-to-date, Jan. 1 through June 17. Source: National Interagency Fire Center Alan Kenaga/Capital Press 4 Idaho Wildfires 40,000 Wyo. 3 Calif. Nev. Projected wildland ﬁre potential, July 2019 Utah Ariz. The areas marked in red indicate a greater than usual likelihood that signiﬁcant wildland ﬁres will occur. Above normal wildﬁre conditions Source: National Interagency Fire Center Alan Kenaga/Capital Press in Idaho near the Canadian border, “could see a near-nor- mal start and progression” of the ﬁ re season in June, Henry said. “Then, activity could be above-average for the season.” July temperatures should be close to normal from the Sierra Nevada to the Colum- bia Basin and the Northern Rockies, he said. That’s in contrast to weather that aver- aged about 5 degrees warmer the last several years. In July, “we also should see some above-normal precipitation.” Soil moisture is ample in much of the Great Basin and California, which could por- tend higher humidity in the afternoons as temperatures rise, Henry said. “Grasses would not be as excessively dry. Fire spread rates would be lower in that scenario, but that is a matter of wind speed.” The Bureau of Land Man- agement last year conducted 39 ﬁ reﬁ ghter training sessions with volunteer rangeland ﬁ re protection associations involv- ing 692 members, said Steve Acarregui, national cooperator and veteran affairs coordinator for the BLM Fire and Avia- tion Directorate. “The outlook for 2019 is a little uptick — just over 40 trainings and over 700 members receiving BLM- funded training.” Nationwide, more than 8,200 trained ﬁ reﬁ ghters work with or cooperate with BLM. Acarregui said the agency spends about $1 million a year to train local cooperators such as rangeland associations and rural ﬁ re departments, develop ﬁ eld communication plans and aid in leadership development. 17,118 30,000 2 1.76 20,000 1 10,000 0.46 0 0 2009 ’11 FREE gift with any $5 purchase HUGE SALE! STORE CLOSING AFTER MORE THAN 85 YEARS IN BUSINESS WRIGHT PRO HARDWARE IN CATHLAMET IS CLOSING THE STORE FOREVER! ’15 ’17 2019 ‘EVERYONE BASICALLY EXPECTS IT’S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE IN THE NEAR TERM. IT’S NOT GOING TO APPLY EVERY YEAR IN EVERY LOCATION. IT’S A COMPLEX WORLD.’ John Bailey | a professor of silviculture and ﬁ re management at Oregon State University ‘Reality check’ Henry said that about 20,000 lightning strikes during two nights in June in North- ern California, the Northwest and much of the Rockies and Great Basin proved valuable to forecasters. “We needed a good test and reality check to make sure our assumptions were cor- rect based on the numerical guidance we had, and they were correct,” he said. “The substantial lightning we had occurred in areas we had ques- tions about.” Earlier data “indicated the that fuels were drying at a slower-than-average rate and were not yet receptive” to ﬁ re, Henry said. “That did prove to be the case.” For example, light- ning-caused ﬁ res on grasses in Oregon — concentrated in the state’s central and east- ern regions — and near the Idaho-Utah line were mostly an acre or smaller, and short- lived, he said. But the storms originated from the Paciﬁ c and included ’13 moisture. More typically this time of year, the storms orig- inate from the Southwest and bring less rain, Henry said. “This is not the kind of event we want to see in July,” when the landscape will be signiﬁ cantly drier, he said. In north central Idaho, the Nez Perce-Clearwa- ter National Forests include steep, grassy canyons where ﬁ re can spread quickly, with timber and towns sprinkled throughout. At a higher ele- vation south of the Clearwa- ter River is a ﬁ reﬁ ghting air- craft and smokejumper base in Grangeville. “If we get a smoke report, we want to get on it quickly to ensure the ﬁ re remains small,” public affairs specialist Gregg Goodland said. “As you move up in elevation, you gradu- ally change to a brush-type fuel, and those ﬁ res are going to hold different challenges,” such as bigger ﬂ ames. Nez Perce-Clearwater ﬁ re managers this season expect average activity. “We are expecting some large ﬁ res, like normal, and the possibility of numerous ﬁ res at once,” Goodland said . “As we see storms develop and conditions getting more ripe to support ﬁ re, in terms of preparations and what we are expecting, it’s kind of all right there.” During last year’s busy wildﬁ re season, the Nez Perce-Clearwater forests caught a break. “Lightning just seemed to go around us,” he said. Season accelerates However, the outlook is as changeable as the weather. A delay in timberland ﬁ re activity could prolong the pre- scribed-burn season, which typically ends as fuels dry and personnel are called to other ﬁ res, said John Bailey, a pro- fessor of silviculture and ﬁ re management at Oregon State University . “But in general, the West is going to be in ﬁ re season fairly soon,” he said. “Most factors of the last 15 years are still in play,” including increases in ﬁ re severity and acres burned, greater human presence and some decline in active land management that incorporates harvest. “Fuels are still grow- ing, every year and every day. “Everyone basically expects it’s only going to get worse in the near term,” Bai- ley said. However, he said, “It’s not going to apply every year in every location. It’s a complex world.” Henry said last fall’s big California ﬁ res occurred amid critically dry fuels, high tem- peratures and humidity in the 10 to 15% range. “And we had some gusty wind events, like down-sloping winds.” Those ﬁ res far exceeded expectations, he said. “The behavior we saw from those ﬁ res was more severe than what we would otherwise expect. We expected very aggressive ﬁ res, but these things were almost off-the- charts bad.” California’s high-eleva- tion timber this year is in bet- ter shape because of an ample snow melt and should see a “late entry” into peak ﬁ re sea- son, Henry said. August heat likely will pose problems in middle- and low-elevation grasses plumped by earlier heavy rain but subsequently dried. As to what is considered a “normal” U.S. wildﬁ re sea- son, the average number of acres burned has been increas- ing over time despite year-to- year variations, Henry said. “So it is almost a ﬂ oating average.” Moore, the Mountain Home ﬁ re chief, said light- ning strikes, power-line issues and an increase in the number of people living in the wild- land-urban interface can add to the ﬁ re workload. “Plan your work and work your plan because it’s some- thing you live with in the des- ert,” he said. “And most often when it gets dry, we are sus- ceptible to ﬁ res.” Sizzling Summer Special $ 2,000 off 50% off your deposit first month Deposit by August 1st and move in by September 1st, 2019! 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