A8
THE ASTORIAN • SATURDAY, JUNE 22, 2019
Wildfi res: Nationwide, the wildfi re season this year has already been busy
U.S. wildfires and acres burned, June *
Continued from Page A1
Nationwide, the wildfi re
season this year has already
been busy, although not as
busy as in 2018.
Year to date through June
17, the number of wildfi res
nationwide totaled 17,118
burning 459,776 acres, the fi re
center reported.
That’s down from 25,661
fi res burning slightly more
than 1.8 million acres during
the fi rst six months of last year.
As of last week, six large
fi res each were burning in
Alaska and Arizona; two each
in Washington state and Cali-
fornia; three in New Mexico;
and one in Florida.
Regional outlook
In the Northwest, the fi re
center predicts the potential
for signifi cant large fi res will
be normal with the exception
of the coastal areas and far
n orthern Idaho and Montana.
In California, the fi re cen-
ter expects above-normal
fi re risk in June and July in
the San Francisco Bay Area,
Sacramento Valley and cen-
tral coast, the exception being
the mountainous Mendocino
National Forest, which will be
normal.
For August and September,
normal or above-normal fi re
risk is forecast for the northern
half of the state.
Bryan Henry, meteorol-
ogist and acting fi re weather
program manager for NIFC
Predictive Services, said year-
to-date moisture was above
normal in California and in
much of s outhern Idaho and
Eastern Oregon. That will
produce a robust crop of grass
and other fi ne fuels that keeps
rangeland fi refi ghters busy
later in the season, when tem-
peratures rise.
He also expects a late start
for the timberland fi re season,
especially at higher elevations.
A late, heavy snowpack and
lingering colder-than-normal
weather have kept fuels wet
longer.
But the drier timberland
areas in northwestern Oregon
and in Washington state, and
Acres burned (millions of acres)
Wash.
5
Mont.
50,000
45,408
4.3
Ore.
*Year-to-date, Jan. 1 through June 17.
Source: National Interagency Fire Center
Alan Kenaga/Capital Press
4
Idaho
Wildfires
40,000
Wyo.
3
Calif.
Nev.
Projected
wildland fire
potential,
July 2019
Utah
Ariz.
The areas marked in red
indicate a greater than usual
likelihood that significant
wildland fires will occur.
Above normal
wildfire conditions
Source: National Interagency Fire Center
Alan Kenaga/Capital Press
in Idaho near the Canadian
border, “could see a near-nor-
mal start and progression” of
the fi re season in June, Henry
said. “Then, activity could be
above-average for the season.”
July temperatures should
be close to normal from the
Sierra Nevada to the Colum-
bia Basin and the Northern
Rockies, he said. That’s in
contrast to weather that aver-
aged about 5 degrees warmer
the last several years. In July,
“we also should see some
above-normal precipitation.”
Soil moisture is ample in
much of the Great Basin and
California, which could por-
tend higher humidity in the
afternoons as temperatures
rise, Henry said. “Grasses
would not be as excessively
dry. Fire spread rates would be
lower in that scenario, but that
is a matter of wind speed.”
The Bureau of Land Man-
agement last year conducted
39 fi refi ghter training sessions
with volunteer rangeland fi re
protection associations involv-
ing 692 members, said Steve
Acarregui, national cooperator
and veteran affairs coordinator
for the BLM Fire and Avia-
tion Directorate. “The outlook
for 2019 is a little uptick —
just over 40 trainings and over
700 members receiving BLM-
funded training.”
Nationwide, more than
8,200 trained fi refi ghters work
with or cooperate with BLM.
Acarregui said the agency
spends about $1 million a year
to train local cooperators such
as rangeland associations and
rural fi re departments, develop
fi eld communication plans and
aid in leadership development.
17,118 30,000
2 1.76
20,000
1
10,000
0.46
0
0
2009
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‘EVERYONE BASICALLY
EXPECTS IT’S ONLY GOING TO
GET WORSE IN THE NEAR TERM.
IT’S NOT GOING TO APPLY EVERY
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IT’S A COMPLEX WORLD.’
John Bailey | a professor of silviculture
and fi re management at Oregon State University
‘Reality check’
Henry said that about
20,000 lightning strikes during
two nights in June in North-
ern California, the Northwest
and much of the Rockies and
Great Basin proved valuable
to forecasters.
“We needed a good test
and reality check to make sure
our assumptions were cor-
rect based on the numerical
guidance we had, and they
were correct,” he said. “The
substantial lightning we had
occurred in areas we had ques-
tions about.”
Earlier data “indicated the
that fuels were drying at a
slower-than-average rate and
were not yet receptive” to fi re,
Henry said. “That did prove to
be the case.”
For
example,
light-
ning-caused fi res on grasses
in Oregon — concentrated
in the state’s central and east-
ern regions — and near the
Idaho-Utah line were mostly
an acre or smaller, and short-
lived, he said.
But the storms originated
from the Pacifi c and included
’13
moisture. More typically this
time of year, the storms orig-
inate from the Southwest and
bring less rain, Henry said.
“This is not the kind of
event we want to see in July,”
when the landscape will be
signifi cantly drier, he said.
In north central Idaho,
the Nez Perce-Clearwa-
ter National Forests include
steep, grassy canyons where
fi re can spread quickly, with
timber and towns sprinkled
throughout. At a higher ele-
vation south of the Clearwa-
ter River is a fi refi ghting air-
craft and smokejumper base
in Grangeville.
“If we get a smoke report,
we want to get on it quickly to
ensure the fi re remains small,”
public affairs specialist Gregg
Goodland said. “As you move
up in elevation, you gradu-
ally change to a brush-type
fuel, and those fi res are going
to hold different challenges,”
such as bigger fl ames.
Nez Perce-Clearwater fi re
managers this season expect
average activity.
“We are expecting some
large fi res, like normal, and
the possibility of numerous
fi res at once,” Goodland said .
“As we see storms develop
and conditions getting more
ripe to support fi re, in terms of
preparations and what we are
expecting, it’s kind of all right
there.”
During last year’s busy
wildfi re season, the Nez
Perce-Clearwater
forests
caught a break. “Lightning
just seemed to go around us,”
he said.
Season accelerates
However, the outlook is as
changeable as the weather.
A delay in timberland fi re
activity could prolong the pre-
scribed-burn season, which
typically ends as fuels dry and
personnel are called to other
fi res, said John Bailey, a pro-
fessor of silviculture and fi re
management at Oregon State
University .
“But in general, the West is
going to be in fi re season fairly
soon,” he said. “Most factors
of the last 15 years are still in
play,” including increases in
fi re severity and acres burned,
greater human presence and
some decline in active land
management that incorporates
harvest. “Fuels are still grow-
ing, every year and every day.
“Everyone
basically
expects it’s only going to get
worse in the near term,” Bai-
ley said. However, he said,
“It’s not going to apply every
year in every location. It’s a
complex world.”
Henry said last fall’s big
California fi res occurred amid
critically dry fuels, high tem-
peratures and humidity in the
10 to 15% range. “And we
had some gusty wind events,
like down-sloping winds.”
Those fi res far exceeded
expectations, he said. “The
behavior we saw from those
fi res was more severe than
what we would otherwise
expect. We expected very
aggressive fi res, but these
things were almost off-the-
charts bad.”
California’s high-eleva-
tion timber this year is in bet-
ter shape because of an ample
snow melt and should see a
“late entry” into peak fi re sea-
son, Henry said. August heat
likely will pose problems in
middle- and low-elevation
grasses plumped by earlier
heavy rain but subsequently
dried.
As to what is considered
a “normal” U.S. wildfi re sea-
son, the average number of
acres burned has been increas-
ing over time despite year-to-
year variations, Henry said.
“So it is almost a fl oating
average.”
Moore, the Mountain
Home fi re chief, said light-
ning strikes, power-line issues
and an increase in the number
of people living in the wild-
land-urban interface can add
to the fi re workload.
“Plan your work and work
your plan because it’s some-
thing you live with in the des-
ert,” he said. “And most often
when it gets dry, we are sus-
ceptible to fi res.”
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