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A4 THE DAILY ASTORIAN • FRIDAY, ApRIL 19, 2019 OPINION editor@dailyastorian.com KARI BORGEN publisher JIM VAN NOSTRAND Editor Founded in 1873 JEREMY FELDMAN Circulation Manager JOHN D. BRUIJN production Manager CARL EARL Systems Manager PRO-CON DOES ISIS REMAIN A THREAT TO THE US AND EUROPE? Carolyn Cole/Los Angeles Times Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Units, or Hashd al Shaabi, chant before going into battle as they fight alongside Iraq Army forces during the offensive to liberate Mosul from ISIS in October 2016. Pro: US must never be complacent about ISIS threat N obody expects ISIS to go quietly In contrast, the U.S. is a much harder into the night. That’s not what Isla- target. The FBI has made countering trans- mist terrorist groups do. national Islamist terrorism Job #1. Com- batting terrorism is a principle duty of the What this particular group wants now is revenge for their humiliating defeat in Syria Department of Homeland Security, as well. and Iraq. The question is: Where will they State and local law enforcement also con- tinue to dedicate significant resources to the strike to try to save face? America is on mission. watch to make sure it doesn’t happen here. Make no mistake about it, losing its It is not like the terrorists aren’t try- ing. My colleagues at The Heritage self-proclaimed caliphate was a Foundation maintain a database of devastating blow to ISIS, psycho- logically as well as militarily. all the Islamist-related terror plots In the Middle East, power is laid against U.S. territory since honor. By controlling a vast terri- 9/11, 2001. It currently documents tory with over 10 million inhabi- 109 known plots, including two this tants, ISIS commanded honor and month. JAMES JAY attracted more followers eager to What is most significant is that CARAFANO back this “strong horse.” the overwhelming number of these But that once strong horse is plots are thwarted — often by local now seen as powerless in the wake law enforcement — before anyone of a counteroffensive that eliminated its gets hurt. control of every last village. Nothing could All the recent plots against the U.S. lack be more degrading. the sophistication and scale of the 9/11 The only way to get back in the game attacks. Transnational terrorist groups have and regain their “honor” is to demonstrate been degraded to the point that they now they can continue to kill innocents — and appear to lack the capacity to pull off any- thing on that scale. the bigger the numbers the better. There is no question that America tops But we can never say never. Groups like the list of places where ISIS would most ISIS have demonstrated both resilience and like to stage a horrific attack. But the ques- innovation. While they are most likely to tion is: Can they? be content with targeting Europe and the Recent media accounts of documents Greater Middle East including North Africa uncovered in the Middle East talk of active for now, no one knows when they will operational planning for major terrorist come after the red, white, and blue. attacks in Europe, similar to the 2015 strike Which is why America must always be in Paris, France, that left 89 dead. From ready. Readiness includes not just continu- ing vigilant counter-terrorism operations the reporting, however, it is not clear how here at home, but also taking the fight to much this planning is aspirational and how ISIS and al Qaeda overseas. much reflects actual capability. That said, it is clear why ISIS might tar- They can’t be allowed to have sanctuar- ies. They can’t be allowed to rebuild their get Europe instead of the U.S. For one thing, they have done it before infrastructure, networks and financing. and had success. The waves of Middle They can’t be allowed to partner-up with Eastern migration have been exploited to transnational criminal networks and state put in place a network of operatives and actors. sympathizers stretching from the UK over Americans should never get complacent half of Western Europe. about the terrorist threat. But as long as we In addition, European police forces are keep heavy pressure on the transnational struggling to keep up with the threat. They groups, we can sleep better than most. lack officers with language skills and train- James Jay Carafano directs the Heri- tage Foundation think-tank’s research into ing in community policing and intelli- gence-led policing, the tools most useful in matters of national security and foreign relations. rooting out local violent extremist activity. Con: Talk of looming major attack overblown T errorist threats are a cause for con- them. cern, but recent claims of a loom- President Trump has called on Europe ing major uptick coming out of the to repatriate them. European leaders want Middle East are overblown. them to stay where they are and be tried The claims follow the loss of territory there for crimes they have committed. But by ISIS, whose initials stand for Islamic many are held by the US-backed Kurdish State in Iraq and Syria. The significant forces in northern Syria, which lacks the patches of land once held by ISIS in those capacity to deal with them. countries have now evaporated. In Syria The dilemma is most acute in regard to in recent days, ISIS has lost its last women from Europe who married small sectors of land. ISIS fighters. Holding nationality in European The concern one hears is that countries, many want to return. ISIS fighters will now switch Britain at the moment is consider- toward mounting off-on attacks ing whether to revoke the British against civilian targets in Europe citizenship of one such woman, to and North America. JOHN B. keep her from returning. A report issued in February in QUIGLEY Opposition politicians in Brit- the Netherlands by its National ain object that this would render Coordinator for Security and Coun- terterrorism makes precisely this her stateless. International law bans citizenship revocation that leaves a person prediction. stateless. That office publishes an estimate every The issue has also arisen, though on a quarter titled “Terror Threat Report Neth- erlands.” Its February 2019 report predicts smaller scale, for the United States. It cur- rently is trying to decide whether to allow that ISIS fighters with roots in Europe will the return of a Yemeni-American woman foment attacks there, and perhaps across who has come out of ISIS territory in the Atlantic Ocean as well. Syria. Any new and higher such threat from To the extent that ISIS still poses a ISIS, however, remains a matter of specu- lation. In recent months, even as ISIS terri- threat, there is much that can be done to tory was being reduced, Europe has experi- counter it. ISIS exploits our own actions in enced violent attacks by single individuals, the Middle East to recruit new adherents. some of them Muslim, that have killed Trump unfortunately has a knack for small numbers of victims. But more sub- giving ISIS issues to use to incite against stantial assaults of this type have not been the United States. Last year, as Israeli snip- ers shot 6,000 Palestinian protesters along seen in Europe. the Gaza border — shootings that the UN ISIS is now far less able to mount attacks in the West after losing its territory. called “war crimes” — Trump insisted that Holding land was key to ISIS success. The Israel was doing nothing wrong. Last May Trump moved the U.S. prospect of a life in territory governed by Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, a city ISIS principles was held out to potential that few in the Arab world see as belong- adherents as attractive. ing to Israel. More recently, Trump said That recruiting tool is now gone. ISIS that Israel owns the Golan Heights, which was able to extract wealth from the terri- tory it held in Iraq and Syria, especially by it seized from Syria in 1967. Actions like selling oil. That money let ISIS promote its these are a gift to ISIS. activities around the world. So while ISIS Even though ISIS is weakened, it may try to arrange for violent acts outside remains a force. We should stop helping it the Middle East, its capacity for doing so is recruit. diminished by its loss of territory. John B. Quigley is a professor at The The concern about the return of jihad- Ohio State University’s Moritz College of ists with European roots has left European Law and a leading scholar on U.S. rela- governments wondering what to do with tions with Russia and the Middle East.
