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THE DAILY ASTORIAN • FRIDAY, ApRIL 19, 2019
OPINION
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PRO-CON
DOES ISIS REMAIN A THREAT
TO THE US AND EUROPE?
Carolyn Cole/Los Angeles Times
Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Units, or Hashd al Shaabi, chant before going into battle as they fight alongside Iraq Army forces during the offensive to liberate Mosul from ISIS in October 2016.
Pro: US must never be
complacent about ISIS threat
N
obody expects ISIS to go quietly
In contrast, the U.S. is a much harder
into the night. That’s not what Isla- target. The FBI has made countering trans-
mist terrorist groups do.
national Islamist terrorism Job #1. Com-
batting terrorism is a principle duty of the
What this particular group wants now is
revenge for their humiliating defeat in Syria Department of Homeland Security, as well.
and Iraq. The question is: Where will they
State and local law enforcement also con-
tinue to dedicate significant resources to the
strike to try to save face? America is on
mission.
watch to make sure it doesn’t happen here.
Make no mistake about it, losing its
It is not like the terrorists aren’t try-
ing. My colleagues at The Heritage
self-proclaimed caliphate was a
Foundation maintain a database of
devastating blow to ISIS, psycho-
logically as well as militarily.
all the Islamist-related terror plots
In the Middle East, power is
laid against U.S. territory since
honor. By controlling a vast terri-
9/11, 2001. It currently documents
tory with over 10 million inhabi-
109 known plots, including two this
tants, ISIS commanded honor and
month.
JAMES JAY
attracted more followers eager to
What is most significant is that
CARAFANO
back this “strong horse.”
the overwhelming number of these
But that once strong horse is
plots are thwarted — often by local
now seen as powerless in the wake
law enforcement — before anyone
of a counteroffensive that eliminated its
gets hurt.
control of every last village. Nothing could
All the recent plots against the U.S. lack
be more degrading.
the sophistication and scale of the 9/11
The only way to get back in the game
attacks. Transnational terrorist groups have
and regain their “honor” is to demonstrate
been degraded to the point that they now
they can continue to kill innocents — and
appear to lack the capacity to pull off any-
thing on that scale.
the bigger the numbers the better.
There is no question that America tops
But we can never say never. Groups like
the list of places where ISIS would most
ISIS have demonstrated both resilience and
like to stage a horrific attack. But the ques-
innovation. While they are most likely to
tion is: Can they?
be content with targeting Europe and the
Recent media accounts of documents
Greater Middle East including North Africa
uncovered in the Middle East talk of active for now, no one knows when they will
operational planning for major terrorist
come after the red, white, and blue.
attacks in Europe, similar to the 2015 strike
Which is why America must always be
in Paris, France, that left 89 dead. From
ready. Readiness includes not just continu-
ing vigilant counter-terrorism operations
the reporting, however, it is not clear how
here at home, but also taking the fight to
much this planning is aspirational and how
ISIS and al Qaeda overseas.
much reflects actual capability.
That said, it is clear why ISIS might tar-
They can’t be allowed to have sanctuar-
ies. They can’t be allowed to rebuild their
get Europe instead of the U.S.
For one thing, they have done it before
infrastructure, networks and financing.
and had success. The waves of Middle
They can’t be allowed to partner-up with
Eastern migration have been exploited to
transnational criminal networks and state
put in place a network of operatives and
actors.
sympathizers stretching from the UK over
Americans should never get complacent
half of Western Europe.
about the terrorist threat. But as long as we
In addition, European police forces are
keep heavy pressure on the transnational
struggling to keep up with the threat. They
groups, we can sleep better than most.
lack officers with language skills and train-
James Jay Carafano directs the Heri-
tage Foundation think-tank’s research into
ing in community policing and intelli-
gence-led policing, the tools most useful in matters of national security and foreign
relations.
rooting out local violent extremist activity.
Con: Talk of looming
major attack overblown
T
errorist threats are a cause for con-
them.
cern, but recent claims of a loom-
President Trump has called on Europe
ing major uptick coming out of the
to repatriate them. European leaders want
Middle East are overblown.
them to stay where they are and be tried
The claims follow the loss of territory
there for crimes they have committed. But
by ISIS, whose initials stand for Islamic
many are held by the US-backed Kurdish
State in Iraq and Syria. The significant
forces in northern Syria, which lacks the
patches of land once held by ISIS in those
capacity to deal with them.
countries have now evaporated. In Syria
The dilemma is most acute in regard to
in recent days, ISIS has lost its last
women from Europe who married
small sectors of land.
ISIS fighters.
Holding nationality in European
The concern one hears is that
countries, many want to return.
ISIS fighters will now switch
Britain at the moment is consider-
toward mounting off-on attacks
ing whether to revoke the British
against civilian targets in Europe
citizenship of one such woman, to
and North America.
JOHN B.
keep her from returning.
A report issued in February in
QUIGLEY
Opposition politicians in Brit-
the Netherlands by its National
ain object that this would render
Coordinator for Security and Coun-
terterrorism makes precisely this
her stateless. International law bans
citizenship revocation that leaves a person
prediction.
stateless.
That office publishes an estimate every
The issue has also arisen, though on a
quarter titled “Terror Threat Report Neth-
erlands.” Its February 2019 report predicts
smaller scale, for the United States. It cur-
rently is trying to decide whether to allow
that ISIS fighters with roots in Europe will
the return of a Yemeni-American woman
foment attacks there, and perhaps across
who has come out of ISIS territory in
the Atlantic Ocean as well.
Syria.
Any new and higher such threat from
To the extent that ISIS still poses a
ISIS, however, remains a matter of specu-
lation. In recent months, even as ISIS terri- threat, there is much that can be done to
tory was being reduced, Europe has experi- counter it. ISIS exploits our own actions in
enced violent attacks by single individuals, the Middle East to recruit new adherents.
some of them Muslim, that have killed
Trump unfortunately has a knack for
small numbers of victims. But more sub-
giving ISIS issues to use to incite against
stantial assaults of this type have not been
the United States. Last year, as Israeli snip-
ers shot 6,000 Palestinian protesters along
seen in Europe.
the Gaza border — shootings that the UN
ISIS is now far less able to mount
attacks in the West after losing its territory. called “war crimes” — Trump insisted that
Holding land was key to ISIS success. The Israel was doing nothing wrong.
Last May Trump moved the U.S.
prospect of a life in territory governed by
Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, a city
ISIS principles was held out to potential
that few in the Arab world see as belong-
adherents as attractive.
ing to Israel. More recently, Trump said
That recruiting tool is now gone. ISIS
that Israel owns the Golan Heights, which
was able to extract wealth from the terri-
tory it held in Iraq and Syria, especially by it seized from Syria in 1967. Actions like
selling oil. That money let ISIS promote its these are a gift to ISIS.
activities around the world. So while ISIS
Even though ISIS is weakened, it
may try to arrange for violent acts outside
remains a force. We should stop helping it
the Middle East, its capacity for doing so is recruit.
diminished by its loss of territory.
John B. Quigley is a professor at The
The concern about the return of jihad-
Ohio State University’s Moritz College of
ists with European roots has left European
Law and a leading scholar on U.S. rela-
governments wondering what to do with
tions with Russia and the Middle East.