Image provided by: University of Oregon Libraries; Eugene, OR
About The daily Astorian. (Astoria, Or.) 1961-current | View Entire Issue (Dec. 21, 2018)
A4 THE DAILY ASTORIAN • FRIDAY, DECEMBER 21, 2018 OPINION editor@dailyastorian.com KARI BORGEN Publisher JIM VAN NOSTRAND Editor Founded in 1873 JEREMY FELDMAN Circulation Manager JOHN D. BRUIJN Production Manager CARL EARL Systems Manager PRO-CON Should US keep forward base in Poland to deter Russia? AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski The fi rst U.S. troops arrive in 2017 at the Zagan base in western Poland as part of a deterrence force of some 1,000 soldiers . PRO: US base in Poland fl ashes hands-off signal to Putin W ASHINGTON — In the bump to Russian aggression. But if the 1950s, NATO war planners goal is to rebuild NATO’s credibility as pondered how to defend the the real guarantor of trans-Atlantic secu- nascent alliance against the Soviet war rity, fl ying the stars and stripes over Fort machine. On paper, the magnitude of the Trump might be exactly the right move threat looked overwhelming. to make. Wargaming showed that British and There is an honest debate to be had U.S. forces would be unable to stop a about what the NATO footprint should Soviet incursion in the east. The best look like, but there is no question NATO option: consolidate our forces at the needs to move its frontline forward. beaches at Normandy, where the Allies Committing to the forward defense of had fi rst come ashore in 1944 and Poland, one of America’s strongest and strengthen their position as much as pos- most trusted allies in Central Europe, sible before the Soviet troops arrived. would be an unmistakable hands-off Then ... hold on. sign for Putin. That plan was rejected. After Further, for NATO to demon- all, what nation would commit to strate fully that it can defend an alliance that would leave all Central Europe, the alliance or even most of their territory at will have to fi gure out how to the mercy of foreign invaders? extend its air and missile defense Instead, the NATO plan- umbrella. ners decided they would con- Moreover, they’ll need to duct a forward defense. They demonstrate they can control air- JAMES JAY would man the frontlines of the space, protect cyber and space CARAFANO alliance. systems, and move supplies and That decision accomplished reinforcements quickly in time two goals. First, it deterred aggression of crisis. by telling Moscow that the entire alli- A base in Poland will force NATO to ance was willing to defend NATO soil. address these issues sooner rather later. Second, it forced the alliance to That’s a good thing. develop the infrastructure and logis- And it will give the Trump adminis- tics needed to support and reinforce the tration even more authority when press- frontline troops. ing allies to boost their defense spending And it worked. Throughout the Cold to what’s expected of NATO members War, NATO fi elded enough conventional — about 2 percent of their gross domes- forces — ships, planes, and soldiers — tic products — so they have the capacity that Moscow never crossed the line. they require to fi ght forward. The U.S. should learn from this expe- Of course, Fort Trump by itself rience as it considers Poland’s request to cannot guarantee peace on the conti- permanently forward deploy American nent. Russia already has fi elded medi- forces in their country. um-range nuclear missiles that can hit To be fair, there are respectable argu- every European capital. ments against building what that Pol- It is highly unlikely that the U.S. will ish President Andrzej Duda famously fi eld its own intermediate-range nuclear labeled “Fort Trump” when he pitched missiles to offset that threat. Instead, the the idea to the U.S. president in Pentagon will likely deploy highly lethal September. conventional weapons that can hold key Retired Army General Ben Hodges, Russian targets at risk. for example, worries about the risk of Forward-deployed forces would ben- defending and supporting troops that efi t from that extended conventional close to Putin. And, he notes, it will umbrella — making forward forces like be expensive to build the facilities — Fort Trump more survivable. schools, commissaries, housing, etc. — In short, moving forward gives needed to take care of military members America and its allies every advantage and their families. and sends a stronger signal to Vladimir “There are other ways to deter Russia Putin — that he should keep his hands than to build permanent bases.” Hodges off Western Europe. argues. James Jay Carafano is a 25-year Hodges’ assessment makes sense, as Army veteran and a Heritage Founda- did the initial assessment made by the tion vice president who directs the think 1950s NATO war planners. tank’s research into issues of national Fort Trump would be a costly speed security. CON: Only reason for being is to reap profi ts for America’s weapons makers W ASHINGTON — Dangle a the next NATO military base on their couple billion dollars in front border. of Donald Trump — who These are the most important struc- seems to see himself as America’s pre- tural causes of the New Cold War, mier arms merchant, when he’s not not Russia’s annexation of Crimea — using the presidency to make money which violated international law — or for himself and family — and you can Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. see his eyes light up. presidential election. “Fort Trump,” we will call it, sug- Americans are understandably upset gested Poland’s President Andrzej about any foreign interference in our Duda, who knows how to manipulate elections. As are Hondurans, Chil- an insatiable ego. eans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, Italians, Trump responded positively: Iranians and citizens of scores “Poland would be paying bil- of other countries where the lions of dollars for a base, and United States has intervened we are looking at that.” much more heavily — some- But even some of the more times sponsoring military coups hawkish military analysts, such to reverse election results. as Ben Hodges, commander of This even includes Russia U.S. Army Europe from 2014 itself, where Americans orga- MARK to 2017, have argued that this nized and spent heavily to elect WEISBROT is “unnecessarily provocative.” their ally, Boris Yeltsin, in The idea was roundly rejected 1996. by the U.S. and Germany when it was Election expert Nate Silver noted fi rst suggested in 2016. this week that Russian troll farms, If the power of the weapons industry memes and tweets were much too small were to prevail, however, it wouldn’t and without evidence of effectiveness be the fi rst time. to have made a difference in the 2016 In fact, that’s a big part of the story election. of how we got in this New Cold War in But in any case, the New Cold the fi rst place. As the New York Times War with Russia has deeper structural pointed out: “At night, Bruce L. Jack- causes that will not be resolved through son is president of the U.S. Committee sanctions and threats — and certainly to Expand NATO, giving intimate din- not by expanding NATO’s military ners for senators and foreign offi cials. encirclement of Russia. By day, he is director of strategic plan- Ironically, despite Trump’s personal ning for Lockheed Martin Corporation, friendliness with Putin — and whatever the world’s biggest weapons maker.” private fi nancial gains he has sought That was 1997. Two years later, there — he has been more aggres- Poland, Hungary and the Czech Repub- sive toward Russia through stepped-up lic would join NATO, allowing Ameri- sanctions, sending lethal weapons to ca’s weapon makers to haul in billions Ukraine, proposing to abandon the of dollars in new arms sales. Ten more Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces countries would join over the next nine treaty and continuing to expand NATO. years, bringing NATO’s military to This is no way to manage relations Russia’s doorstep. between the two countries that have The United States and Germany the vast majority of the world’s nuclear promised Russia in 1990, as the Soviet weapons. Union was collapsing, that they would Of course even talking about our not expand NATO even “an inch” to new military base in Poland shows how the east. far U.S. foreign policy towards Rus- Although many Americans have for- sia has descended into stupidity and gotten World War II, the Russians have recklessness. not: They lost 27 million people to It will take much more public Nazi invaders. awareness and political mobilization to Needless to say, they are not fond of reverse course. the violent neo-Nazis that the U.S. gov- Mark Weisbrot is co-director of ernment has supported in Ukraine, or the Center for Economic and Policy the idea that Ukraine could end up with Research.
