A4
THE DAILY ASTORIAN • FRIDAY, DECEMBER 21, 2018
OPINION
editor@dailyastorian.com
KARI BORGEN
Publisher
JIM VAN NOSTRAND
Editor
Founded in 1873
JEREMY FELDMAN
Circulation Manager
JOHN D. BRUIJN
Production Manager
CARL EARL
Systems Manager
PRO-CON
Should US keep forward base
in Poland to deter Russia?
AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski
The fi rst U.S. troops arrive in 2017 at the Zagan base in western Poland as part of a deterrence force of some 1,000 soldiers .
PRO: US base in Poland
fl ashes hands-off signal to Putin
W
ASHINGTON — In the
bump to Russian aggression. But if the
1950s, NATO war planners
goal is to rebuild NATO’s credibility as
pondered how to defend the
the real guarantor of trans-Atlantic secu-
nascent alliance against the Soviet war
rity, fl ying the stars and stripes over Fort
machine. On paper, the magnitude of the Trump might be exactly the right move
threat looked overwhelming.
to make.
Wargaming showed that British and
There is an honest debate to be had
U.S. forces would be unable to stop a
about what the NATO footprint should
Soviet incursion in the east. The best
look like, but there is no question NATO
option: consolidate our forces at the
needs to move its frontline forward.
beaches at Normandy, where the Allies
Committing to the forward defense of
had fi rst come ashore in 1944 and
Poland, one of America’s strongest and
strengthen their position as much as pos- most trusted allies in Central Europe,
sible before the Soviet troops arrived.
would be an unmistakable hands-off
Then ... hold on.
sign for Putin.
That plan was rejected. After
Further, for NATO to demon-
all, what nation would commit to
strate fully that it can defend
an alliance that would leave all
Central Europe, the alliance
or even most of their territory at
will have to fi gure out how to
the mercy of foreign invaders?
extend its air and missile defense
Instead, the NATO plan-
umbrella.
ners decided they would con-
Moreover, they’ll need to
duct a forward defense. They
demonstrate they can control air-
JAMES JAY
would man the frontlines of the
space, protect cyber and space
CARAFANO
alliance.
systems, and move supplies and
That decision accomplished
reinforcements quickly in time
two goals. First, it deterred aggression
of crisis.
by telling Moscow that the entire alli-
A base in Poland will force NATO to
ance was willing to defend NATO soil.
address these issues sooner rather later.
Second, it forced the alliance to
That’s a good thing.
develop the infrastructure and logis-
And it will give the Trump adminis-
tics needed to support and reinforce the
tration even more authority when press-
frontline troops.
ing allies to boost their defense spending
And it worked. Throughout the Cold
to what’s expected of NATO members
War, NATO fi elded enough conventional — about 2 percent of their gross domes-
forces — ships, planes, and soldiers —
tic products — so they have the capacity
that Moscow never crossed the line.
they require to fi ght forward.
The U.S. should learn from this expe-
Of course, Fort Trump by itself
rience as it considers Poland’s request to cannot guarantee peace on the conti-
permanently forward deploy American
nent. Russia already has fi elded medi-
forces in their country.
um-range nuclear missiles that can hit
To be fair, there are respectable argu- every European capital.
ments against building what that Pol-
It is highly unlikely that the U.S. will
ish President Andrzej Duda famously
fi eld its own intermediate-range nuclear
labeled “Fort Trump” when he pitched
missiles to offset that threat. Instead, the
the idea to the U.S. president in
Pentagon will likely deploy highly lethal
September.
conventional weapons that can hold key
Retired Army General Ben Hodges,
Russian targets at risk.
for example, worries about the risk of
Forward-deployed forces would ben-
defending and supporting troops that
efi t from that extended conventional
close to Putin. And, he notes, it will
umbrella — making forward forces like
be expensive to build the facilities —
Fort Trump more survivable.
schools, commissaries, housing, etc. —
In short, moving forward gives
needed to take care of military members America and its allies every advantage
and their families.
and sends a stronger signal to Vladimir
“There are other ways to deter Russia Putin — that he should keep his hands
than to build permanent bases.” Hodges
off Western Europe.
argues.
James Jay Carafano is a 25-year
Hodges’ assessment makes sense, as
Army veteran and a Heritage Founda-
did the initial assessment made by the
tion vice president who directs the think
1950s NATO war planners.
tank’s research into issues of national
Fort Trump would be a costly speed
security.
CON: Only reason for
being is to reap profi ts for
America’s weapons makers
W
ASHINGTON — Dangle a
the next NATO military base on their
couple billion dollars in front border.
of Donald Trump — who
These are the most important struc-
seems to see himself as America’s pre-
tural causes of the New Cold War,
mier arms merchant, when he’s not
not Russia’s annexation of Crimea —
using the presidency to make money
which violated international law — or
for himself and family — and you can
Russian interference in the 2016 U.S.
see his eyes light up.
presidential election.
“Fort Trump,” we will call it, sug-
Americans are understandably upset
gested Poland’s President Andrzej
about any foreign interference in our
Duda, who knows how to manipulate
elections. As are Hondurans, Chil-
an insatiable ego.
eans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, Italians,
Trump responded positively:
Iranians and citizens of scores
“Poland would be paying bil-
of other countries where the
lions of dollars for a base, and
United States has intervened
we are looking at that.”
much more heavily — some-
But even some of the more
times sponsoring military coups
hawkish military analysts, such
to reverse election results.
as Ben Hodges, commander of
This even includes Russia
U.S. Army Europe from 2014
itself, where Americans orga-
MARK
to 2017, have argued that this
nized and spent heavily to elect
WEISBROT
is “unnecessarily provocative.”
their ally, Boris Yeltsin, in
The idea was roundly rejected
1996.
by the U.S. and Germany when it was
Election expert Nate Silver noted
fi rst suggested in 2016.
this week that Russian troll farms,
If the power of the weapons industry memes and tweets were much too small
were to prevail, however, it wouldn’t
and without evidence of effectiveness
be the fi rst time.
to have made a difference in the 2016
In fact, that’s a big part of the story
election.
of how we got in this New Cold War in
But in any case, the New Cold
the fi rst place. As the New York Times
War with Russia has deeper structural
pointed out: “At night, Bruce L. Jack-
causes that will not be resolved through
son is president of the U.S. Committee
sanctions and threats — and certainly
to Expand NATO, giving intimate din-
not by expanding NATO’s military
ners for senators and foreign offi cials.
encirclement of Russia.
By day, he is director of strategic plan-
Ironically, despite Trump’s personal
ning for Lockheed Martin Corporation, friendliness with Putin — and whatever
the world’s biggest weapons maker.”
private fi nancial gains he has sought
That was 1997. Two years later,
there — he has been more aggres-
Poland, Hungary and the Czech Repub- sive toward Russia through stepped-up
lic would join NATO, allowing Ameri-
sanctions, sending lethal weapons to
ca’s weapon makers to haul in billions
Ukraine, proposing to abandon the
of dollars in new arms sales. Ten more
Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces
countries would join over the next nine treaty and continuing to expand NATO.
years, bringing NATO’s military to
This is no way to manage relations
Russia’s doorstep.
between the two countries that have
The United States and Germany
the vast majority of the world’s nuclear
promised Russia in 1990, as the Soviet
weapons.
Union was collapsing, that they would
Of course even talking about our
not expand NATO even “an inch” to
new military base in Poland shows how
the east.
far U.S. foreign policy towards Rus-
Although many Americans have for- sia has descended into stupidity and
gotten World War II, the Russians have recklessness.
not: They lost 27 million people to
It will take much more public
Nazi invaders.
awareness and political mobilization to
Needless to say, they are not fond of reverse course.
the violent neo-Nazis that the U.S. gov-
Mark Weisbrot is co-director of
ernment has supported in Ukraine, or
the Center for Economic and Policy
the idea that Ukraine could end up with Research.