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OPINION 4A THE DAILY ASTORIAN • WEDNESDAY, JUNE 1, 2016 Feel the math, Bernie Founded in 1873 By PAUL KRUGMAN New York Times News Service STEPHEN A. FORRESTER, Editor & Publisher LAURA SELLERS, Managing Editor BETTY SMITH, Advertising Manager CARL EARL, Systems Manager JOHN D. BRUIJN, Production Manager DEBRA BLOOM, Business Manager HEATHER RAMSDELL, Circulation Manager Water under the bridge Compiled by Bob Duke From the pages of Astoria’s daily newspapers 10 years ago this week — 2006 As the mighty Columbia River rushed by Maritime Memorial Park under the Astoria Bridge in Uniontown Monday afternoon, seagulls screamed overhead, the clanging bell of the Astoria trolley was heard in the distance and a bright yellow pilot boat anchored offshore. Then, just as people were arriving for the annual memorial program, the sun peeked through the clouds. Some alone, most in groups, many carrying lowers, people drifted toward the names engraved in black granite rectan- gles on the walls of the monument. Because it was Memorial Day, the walls were dotted with small bou- quets of lowers. Can anyone beat the Astoria Fishermen? Check back in June, and we’ll let you know. No one was able to do it in May, as the Fishermen capped an undefeated month with a big win over the Newport Cubs Tues- day at Aiken Field, a 7-6 victory that sends the Fish to a place they’ve never been before. Astoria will play for a Class 3A state championship Saturday at Volcanoes Stadium in Keizer, where Sherwood will have the last shot to do what no team has been able to do since April 13. Good luck, Bowmen. Astoria is on a 17-game winning streak and the Fishermen will be throwing their No. 1 pitcher – Matt Brause – who, incidentally, has not lost all year. When Knappa middle school students gather for assemblies, the student council takes up more than 75 percent of the seats. That’s because most of the sixth, seventh and eighth grade students at Hilda Lahti Elementary choose to participate in the volunteer council, says their adviser, Kathi “Jacks” Jackson, a leadership and physical education instructor. And while the council’s work has earned the school state awards the past nine years, its achievements have risen to a new level. The National Associ- ation of Student Councils recognized Hilda Lahti Elementary this month as one of 10 student councils across the country to receive its Gold Council of Excellence Award for middle schools. 50 years ago — 1966 The U.S. Army Engineers turned over a lease on 725 acres of land including Cape Disappointment and Peacock spit to the Washington State Parks commission at a ceremony Friday at Fort Canby State Park. The donation practically doubles the size of the existing Fort Canby park that was established in 1957 and brings total area to 1516 acres. The Russian ishing leet off the Paciic Coast is not catching salmon, only ocean perch and hake, the lotilla commander said Saturday. Commodore Alexander Chepur also said the leet was observing a self-imposed 15-mile limit, although some ships might stray to within 12 miles of the shore. Gov. Mark Hatield said today he had asked the Coast Guard to check reports of Russian trawlers operating 1 1/2 miles off Oregon river mouths. He said the Coast Guard was stepping up its surveillance of Russian ishing activity to prevent any violation of the 3-mile limit. 75 years ago — 1941 A splash of color marched to the beat of drums and the call of bugles down a lane of American lags unfurled at half mast in Astoria today as hun- dreds of spectators watched Clatsop veteran and patriotic organizations, with interspersed units of the Army and Coast Guard, stage the annual Memorial Day parade. Federal, state and local military and civilian law enforcement oficers and special detailed watchmen and workmen in mills, fac- tories, canneries and harbor facilities in Astoria joined the nation- wide watch for possible Memorial Day and week-end sabotage last night and today and will continue the vigil until further order. Oficials acted on information from the Federal Bureau of Investigation and oficials of steamship lines, who reported rumors of possible sabotage “somewhere along the Paciic Coast” on Memorial Day. The presence of a so-called brindle deer in the vicinity of Fort Clatsop reportedly seen by various persons at different time over a period of three or four years has been somewhat discredited by those hearing the story as no such animal was thought to exist. One day this week however, Henry P. Marxen operating bulldozer on the Alex Maum farm in the locality saw three deer, which he judged to be year- lings and one of them was a brindle. The Daily Astorian/File his is my ifth presidential campaign as a New York Times columnist, so I’ve watched a lot of election coverage, and I came into this cycle prepared for the worst. Or so I thought. T But I was wrong. So far, election commentary has been even worse than I imagined it would be. It’s not just the focus on the horse race at the expense of substance; much of the horse-race coverage has been bang- your-head-on-the-desk awful, too. I know this isn’t scientiic, but based on conversations I’ve had recently, many people — smart people, who read newspapers and try to keep track of events — have been given a fundamentally wrong impression of the current state of play. And when I say a “wrong impres- sion,” I don’t mean that I disagree with other people’s takes. I mean that people aren’t being properly informed about the basic arithmetic of the situation. Now, I’m not a political scientist or polling expert, nor do I even try to play one on TV. But I am fairly numerate, and I assiduously follow real experts like The Times’ Nate Cohn. And they’ve taught me some basic rules that I keep seeing violated. First, at a certain point you have to stop reporting about the race for a par- ty’s nomination as if it’s mainly about narrative and “momentum.” That may be true at an early stage, when candidates are competing for credibil- ity and dollars. Eventually, however, it all becomes a simple, concrete mat- ter of delegate counts. That’s why Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee; she locked it up more than a month ago with her big Mid-Atlantic wins, leaving Bernie Sanders no way to overtake her with- out gigantic, implausible landslides — winning two-thirds of the vote! — in states with large non- solidly leading the polls white populations, which by September. Pundits have supported Clinton by who dismissed his chances huge margins throughout were overruling what the the campaign. surveys were trying to tell And no, saying that the them. race is effectively over isn’t Which brings us to the somehow aiding a nefari- general election. Here’s ous plot to shut it down by what you should know, but prematurely declaring vic- may not be hearing clearly tory. Nate Silver recently in the political reporting: Paul summed it up: “Clinton Clinton is clearly ahead, Krugman ‘strategy’ is to per- both in general elec- suade more ‘people’ tion polls and in Elec- to ‘vote’ for her, hence Eventually, toral College projec- producing ‘majority’ tions based on state however, of ‘delegates.’” You polls. may think those people It’s true that her it all chose the wrong can- lead isn’t as big as didate, but choose her it was before Trump becomes they did. clinched the GOP a simple, Second, polls can nomination, largely be really helpful at because Republicans concrete assessing the state have consolidated of a race, but only if around their presump- matter of you ight the tempta- tive nominee, while tion to cherry-pick, to many Sanders sup- delegate only cite polls telling porters are still balking counts. the story you want to at saying that they’ll hear. Recent hyperven- vote for her. tilating over the California primary is But that probably won’t last; many a classic example. Most polls show Clinton supporters said similar things Clinton with a solid lead, but one about Barack Obama in 2008, but recent poll shows a very close race. eventually rallied around the nomi- So, has her lead “evaporated,” as nee. So unless Bernie Sanders refuses some reports suggest? Probably not: to concede and insinuates that the Another poll, taken at the very same nomination was somehow stolen by time, showed an 18-point lead. the candidate who won more votes, What the polling experts keep Clinton is a clear favorite to win the telling us to do is rely on averages White House. of polls rather than highlighting any Now, obviously things can and one poll in particular. This does dou- will change over the course of the ble duty: it prevents cherry-picking, general election campaign. Every and it also helps smooth out the ran- one of the presidential elections I’ve dom luctuations that are an inherent covered at The Times felt at some part of polling, but can all too easily point like a nail-biter. But the cur- be mistaken for real movement. And rent state of the race should not be the polling average for California has, a source of dispute or confusion. in fact, been pretty stable, with a solid Barring the equivalent of a meteor Clinton lead. strike, Hillary Clinton will be the Polls can, of course, be wrong, Democratic nominee; despite the and have been a number of times reluctance of Sanders supporters to this cycle. But they’ve worked better concede that reality, she’s ahead of than many people think. Most nota- Donald Trump. That’s what the math bly, Donald Trump’s rise didn’t defy says, and anyone who says it doesn’t the polls — on the contrary, he was is misleading you. The liberal blind spot By NICHOLAS KRISTOF New York Times News Service lassic liberalism exalted tolerance, relected in a line often (and prob- ably wrongly) attributed to Voltaire: “I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it.” C On university campuses, that is sometimes updated to: “I disapprove of what you say, so shut up.” In a column a few weeks ago, I offered “a confession of liberal intol- erance,” criticizing my fellow pro- gressives for promoting all kinds of diversity on campuses — except ideological. I argued that universities risk becoming liberal echo chambers and hostile environments for conser- vatives, and especially for evangeli- cal Christians. As I see it, we are hypocritical: We welcome people who don’t look like us, as long as they think like us. It’s rare for a column to inspire widespread agreement, but that one led to a consensus: Almost every lib- eral agreed that I was dead wrong. “You don’t diversify with idiots,” asserted the reader comment on The Times’ website that was most recom- mended by readers (1,099 of them). Another: Conservatives “are nar- row-minded and are sure they have the right answers.” Finally, this one recommended by readers: “I am grossly disappointed in you for this essay, Mr. Kristof. You have spent so much time in troubled places seemingly calling out misog- yny and bigotry. And yet here you are, scolding and shaming progres- sives for not mindlessly accepting patriarchy, misogyny, complementa- rianism, and hateful, hateful bigotry against the LGBTQ community into the academy.” Mixed in here are legitimate issues. I don’t think that a univer- sity should hire a nincompoop who disputes evolution, or a racist who preaches inequality. But as I see it, the bigger problem is not that con- servatives are iniltrating social sci- ence departments to spread hatred, but rather that liberals have turned departments into enclaves of ideolog- ical homogeneity. Sure, there are dumb or dogmatic conservatives, just as there are dumb and dogmatic liberals. So let’s avoid those who are dumb and dogmatic, don’t have any evangelical without using politics or faith as a shorthand for friends. mental acuity. Sure, achieving diver- On campuses at this sity is a frustrating process, point, illiberalism is led but it enriches organiza- by liberals. The knee-jerk tions and improves deci- impulse to protest campus sion-making. So let’s aim speakers from the right has for ideological as well as grown so much that even ethnic diversity. Democrats like Madeleine Third, when scholars Albright, the irst female cluster on the left end of Nicholas secretary of state, have the spectrum, they mar- Kristof been targeted. ginalize themselves. We Obviously, the chal- desperately need aca- lenges faced by conser- demics like sociologists Cocky? vatives are not the same and anthropologists Narrow- inluencing U.S. pub- as those faced by blacks, relecting centuries of policy on issues like minded? lic discrimination that con- poverty, yet when they tinues today. I’ve often I suggest are in an outer-left orbit, written about uncon- their wisdom often goes scious bias and about untapped. that we how many “whites just In contrast, econo- look don’t get it.” But liberals mists remain inluential. claim to be champions of I wonder if that isn’t in the inclusiveness — so why, partly because there is a in the academic turf that critical mass of Repub- mirror. we control, aren’t we lican economists who ourselves more inclu- battle the Democratic sive? If we are alert to bias in other economists and thus tether the dis- domains, why don’t we tackle our cipline to the American mainstream. own liberal blind spot? I’ve had scores of earnest con- Frankly, the torrent of scorn for versations with scholars on these conservative closed-mindedness con- issues. Many make the point that irmed my view that we on the left can there simply aren’t many conser- be pretty closed-minded ourselves. vative social scientists available to As I see it, there are three good rea- hire. That’s true. The self-selection sons for universities to be more wel- is also understandable: If I were on coming not just to women or blacks, the right, I’d be wary of pursuing but also to conservatives. an academic career (conservatives First, stereotyping and discrim- repeatedly described to me being ination are wrong, whether against belittled on campuses and suffer- gays or Muslims, or against conser- ing what in other contexts are called vatives or evangelicals. We shouldn’t microaggressions). deine one as bigotry and the other as To improve diversity, universities enlightenment. have tried to increase the numbers When a survey inds that more of minority scholars in the pipeline, than half of academics in some ields in part by being more welcoming. would discriminate against a job Maybe a starting point to bolster seeker who they learned was an evan- ideological diversity would likewise gelical, that feels to me like bigotry. be to signal that conservatives are not Second, there’s abundant evidence second-class citizens on campuses: of the beneits of diversity. Bringing We liberals should have the self-con- in members of minorities is not an act idence to believe that our values can of charity but a way of strengthen- triumph in a fair contest in the mar- ing an organization. Yet universities ketplace of ideas. suffer a sickly sameness: Four stud- There are no quick solutions ies have found that at most only about to the ideological homogeneity on one professor in 10 in the humanities campuses, but shouldn’t we at least or social sciences is a Republican. acknowledge that this is a short- I’ve often denounced conserva- coming, rather than celebrate our tive fearmongering about Muslims sameness? Can’t we be a bit more self-aware and refugees, and the liberal hostil- ity toward evangelicals seems rooted when we dismiss conservatives as so in a similar insularity. Surveys show cocky and narrow-minded that they that Americans have negative views should be excluded from large swaths of Muslims when they don’t know of higher education? Cocky? Narrow-minded? I sug- any; I suspect many liberals disdain evangelicals in part because they gest that we look in the mirror.