OPINION
4A
THE DAILY ASTORIAN • WEDNESDAY, JUNE 1, 2016
Feel the math, Bernie
Founded in 1873
By PAUL KRUGMAN
New York Times News Service
STEPHEN A. FORRESTER, Editor & Publisher
LAURA SELLERS, Managing Editor
BETTY SMITH, Advertising Manager
CARL EARL, Systems Manager
JOHN D. BRUIJN, Production Manager
DEBRA BLOOM, Business Manager
HEATHER RAMSDELL, Circulation Manager
Water
under
the bridge
Compiled by Bob Duke
From the pages of Astoria’s daily newspapers
10 years ago this week — 2006
As the mighty Columbia River rushed by Maritime Memorial Park under
the Astoria Bridge in Uniontown Monday afternoon, seagulls screamed
overhead, the clanging bell of the Astoria trolley was heard in the distance
and a bright yellow pilot boat anchored offshore.
Then, just as people were arriving for the annual memorial program, the
sun peeked through the clouds. Some alone, most in groups, many carrying
lowers, people drifted toward the names engraved in black granite rectan-
gles on the walls of the monument.
Because it was Memorial Day, the walls were dotted with small bou-
quets of lowers.
Can anyone beat the Astoria Fishermen? Check back in June,
and we’ll let you know.
No one was able to do it in May, as the Fishermen capped an
undefeated month with a big win over the Newport Cubs Tues-
day at Aiken Field, a 7-6 victory that sends the Fish to a place
they’ve never been before.
Astoria will play for a Class 3A state championship Saturday
at Volcanoes Stadium in Keizer, where Sherwood will have the
last shot to do what no team has been able to do since April 13.
Good luck, Bowmen. Astoria is on a 17-game winning streak
and the Fishermen will be throwing their No. 1 pitcher – Matt
Brause – who, incidentally, has not lost all year.
When Knappa middle school students gather for assemblies, the student
council takes up more than 75 percent of the seats.
That’s because most of the sixth, seventh and eighth grade students at
Hilda Lahti Elementary choose to participate in the volunteer council, says
their adviser, Kathi “Jacks” Jackson, a leadership and physical education
instructor.
And while the council’s work has earned the school state awards the past
nine years, its achievements have risen to a new level. The National Associ-
ation of Student Councils recognized Hilda Lahti Elementary this month as
one of 10 student councils across the country to receive its Gold Council of
Excellence Award for middle schools.
50 years ago — 1966
The U.S. Army Engineers turned over a lease on 725 acres
of land including Cape Disappointment and Peacock spit to the
Washington State Parks commission at a ceremony Friday at
Fort Canby State Park.
The donation practically doubles the size of the existing Fort
Canby park that was established in 1957 and brings total area to
1516 acres.
The Russian ishing leet off the Paciic Coast is not catching salmon,
only ocean perch and hake, the lotilla commander said Saturday.
Commodore Alexander Chepur also said the leet was observing a
self-imposed 15-mile limit, although some ships might stray to within 12
miles of the shore.
Gov. Mark Hatield said today he had asked the Coast Guard
to check reports of Russian trawlers operating 1 1/2 miles off
Oregon river mouths.
He said the Coast Guard was stepping up its surveillance of
Russian ishing activity to prevent any violation of the 3-mile
limit.
75 years ago — 1941
A splash of color marched to the beat of drums and the call of bugles
down a lane of American lags unfurled at half mast in Astoria today as hun-
dreds of spectators watched Clatsop veteran and patriotic organizations, with
interspersed units of the Army and Coast Guard, stage the annual Memorial
Day parade.
Federal, state and local military and civilian law enforcement
oficers and special detailed watchmen and workmen in mills, fac-
tories, canneries and harbor facilities in Astoria joined the nation-
wide watch for possible Memorial Day and week-end sabotage last
night and today and will continue the vigil until further order.
Oficials acted on information from the Federal Bureau
of Investigation and oficials of steamship lines, who reported
rumors of possible sabotage “somewhere along the Paciic Coast”
on Memorial Day.
The presence of a so-called brindle deer in the vicinity of Fort Clatsop
reportedly seen by various persons at different time over a period of three or
four years has been somewhat discredited by those hearing the story as no
such animal was thought to exist.
One day this week however, Henry P. Marxen operating bulldozer on the
Alex Maum farm in the locality saw three deer, which he judged to be year-
lings and one of them was a brindle.
The Daily Astorian/File
his is my ifth presidential
campaign as a New York
Times columnist, so I’ve watched
a lot of election coverage, and I
came into this cycle prepared for
the worst. Or so I thought.
T
But I was wrong. So far, election
commentary has been even worse
than I imagined it would be. It’s not
just the focus on the horse race at the
expense of substance; much of the
horse-race coverage has been bang-
your-head-on-the-desk awful, too. I
know this isn’t scientiic, but based
on conversations I’ve had recently,
many people — smart people, who
read newspapers and try to keep
track of events — have been given a
fundamentally wrong impression of
the current state of play.
And when I say a “wrong impres-
sion,” I don’t mean that I disagree
with other people’s takes. I mean
that people aren’t being properly
informed about the basic arithmetic
of the situation.
Now, I’m not a political scientist
or polling expert, nor do I even try
to play one on TV. But I am fairly
numerate, and I assiduously follow
real experts like The Times’ Nate
Cohn. And they’ve taught me some
basic rules that I keep seeing violated.
First, at a certain point you have to
stop reporting about the race for a par-
ty’s nomination as if it’s mainly about
narrative and “momentum.” That
may be true at an early stage, when
candidates are competing for credibil-
ity and dollars. Eventually, however,
it all becomes a simple, concrete mat-
ter of delegate counts.
That’s why Hillary Clinton will be
the Democratic nominee; she locked
it up more than a month ago with her
big Mid-Atlantic wins, leaving Bernie
Sanders no way to overtake her with-
out gigantic, implausible landslides
— winning two-thirds of the vote!
— in states with large non-
solidly leading the polls
white populations, which
by September. Pundits
have supported Clinton by
who dismissed his chances
huge margins throughout
were overruling what the
the campaign.
surveys were trying to tell
And no, saying that the
them.
race is effectively over isn’t
Which brings us to the
somehow aiding a nefari-
general election. Here’s
ous plot to shut it down by
what you should know, but
prematurely declaring vic-
may not be hearing clearly
tory. Nate Silver recently
in the political reporting:
Paul
summed it up: “Clinton
Clinton is clearly ahead,
Krugman
‘strategy’ is to per-
both in general elec-
suade more ‘people’
tion polls and in Elec-
to ‘vote’ for her, hence Eventually,
toral College projec-
producing ‘majority’
tions based on state
however,
of ‘delegates.’” You
polls.
may think those people
It’s true that her
it all
chose the wrong can-
lead isn’t as big as
didate, but choose her
it was before Trump
becomes
they did.
clinched the GOP
a simple,
Second, polls can
nomination, largely
be really helpful at
because Republicans
concrete
assessing the state
have
consolidated
of a race, but only if
around
their
presump-
matter of
you ight the tempta-
tive nominee, while
tion to cherry-pick, to
many Sanders sup-
delegate
only cite polls telling
porters are still balking
counts.
the story you want to
at saying that they’ll
hear. Recent hyperven-
vote for her.
tilating over the California primary is
But that probably won’t last; many
a classic example. Most polls show Clinton supporters said similar things
Clinton with a solid lead, but one about Barack Obama in 2008, but
recent poll shows a very close race. eventually rallied around the nomi-
So, has her lead “evaporated,” as nee. So unless Bernie Sanders refuses
some reports suggest? Probably not: to concede and insinuates that the
Another poll, taken at the very same nomination was somehow stolen by
time, showed an 18-point lead.
the candidate who won more votes,
What the polling experts keep Clinton is a clear favorite to win the
telling us to do is rely on averages White House.
of polls rather than highlighting any
Now, obviously things can and
one poll in particular. This does dou- will change over the course of the
ble duty: it prevents cherry-picking, general election campaign. Every
and it also helps smooth out the ran- one of the presidential elections I’ve
dom luctuations that are an inherent covered at The Times felt at some
part of polling, but can all too easily point like a nail-biter. But the cur-
be mistaken for real movement. And rent state of the race should not be
the polling average for California has, a source of dispute or confusion.
in fact, been pretty stable, with a solid Barring the equivalent of a meteor
Clinton lead.
strike, Hillary Clinton will be the
Polls can, of course, be wrong, Democratic nominee; despite the
and have been a number of times reluctance of Sanders supporters to
this cycle. But they’ve worked better concede that reality, she’s ahead of
than many people think. Most nota- Donald Trump. That’s what the math
bly, Donald Trump’s rise didn’t defy says, and anyone who says it doesn’t
the polls — on the contrary, he was is misleading you.
The liberal blind spot
By NICHOLAS KRISTOF
New York Times News Service
lassic liberalism exalted
tolerance,
relected
in a line often (and prob-
ably wrongly) attributed
to Voltaire: “I disapprove
of what you say, but I will
defend to the death your right
to say it.”
C
On university campuses, that is
sometimes updated to: “I disapprove
of what you say, so shut up.”
In a column a few weeks ago, I
offered “a confession of liberal intol-
erance,” criticizing my fellow pro-
gressives for promoting all kinds
of diversity on campuses — except
ideological. I argued that universities
risk becoming liberal echo chambers
and hostile environments for conser-
vatives, and especially for evangeli-
cal Christians.
As I see it, we are hypocritical: We
welcome people who don’t look like
us, as long as they think like us.
It’s rare for a column to inspire
widespread agreement, but that one
led to a consensus: Almost every lib-
eral agreed that I was dead wrong.
“You don’t diversify with idiots,”
asserted the reader comment on The
Times’ website that was most recom-
mended by readers (1,099 of them).
Another: Conservatives “are nar-
row-minded and are sure they have
the right answers.”
Finally, this one recommended by
readers: “I am grossly disappointed in
you for this essay, Mr. Kristof. You
have spent so much time in troubled
places seemingly calling out misog-
yny and bigotry. And yet here you
are, scolding and shaming progres-
sives for not mindlessly accepting
patriarchy, misogyny, complementa-
rianism, and hateful, hateful bigotry
against the LGBTQ community into
the academy.”
Mixed in here are legitimate
issues. I don’t think that a univer-
sity should hire a nincompoop who
disputes evolution, or a racist who
preaches inequality. But as I see it,
the bigger problem is not that con-
servatives are iniltrating social sci-
ence departments to spread hatred,
but rather that liberals have turned
departments into enclaves of ideolog-
ical homogeneity.
Sure, there are dumb or dogmatic
conservatives, just as there are dumb
and dogmatic liberals. So let’s avoid
those who are dumb and dogmatic,
don’t have any evangelical
without using politics or
faith as a shorthand for
friends.
mental acuity.
Sure, achieving diver-
On campuses at this
sity is a frustrating process,
point, illiberalism is led
but it enriches organiza-
by liberals. The knee-jerk
tions and improves deci-
impulse to protest campus
sion-making. So let’s aim
speakers from the right has
for ideological as well as
grown so much that even
ethnic diversity.
Democrats like Madeleine
Third, when scholars
Albright, the irst female
cluster
on the left end of
Nicholas
secretary of state, have
the spectrum, they mar-
Kristof
been targeted.
ginalize themselves. We
Obviously, the chal-
desperately need aca-
lenges faced by conser-
demics like sociologists
Cocky?
vatives are not the same
and
anthropologists
Narrow- inluencing U.S. pub-
as those faced by blacks,
relecting centuries of
policy on issues like
minded? lic
discrimination that con-
poverty, yet when they
tinues today. I’ve often I suggest
are in an outer-left orbit,
written about uncon-
their wisdom often goes
scious bias and about
untapped.
that we
how many “whites just
In contrast, econo-
look
don’t get it.” But liberals
mists remain inluential.
claim to be champions of
I wonder if that isn’t
in the
inclusiveness — so why,
partly because there is a
in the academic turf that
critical mass of Repub-
mirror.
we control, aren’t we
lican economists who
ourselves more inclu-
battle the Democratic
sive? If we are alert to bias in other economists and thus tether the dis-
domains, why don’t we tackle our cipline to the American mainstream.
own liberal blind spot?
I’ve had scores of earnest con-
Frankly, the torrent of scorn for versations with scholars on these
conservative closed-mindedness con- issues. Many make the point that
irmed my view that we on the left can there simply aren’t many conser-
be pretty closed-minded ourselves.
vative social scientists available to
As I see it, there are three good rea- hire. That’s true. The self-selection
sons for universities to be more wel- is also understandable: If I were on
coming not just to women or blacks, the right, I’d be wary of pursuing
but also to conservatives.
an academic career (conservatives
First, stereotyping and discrim- repeatedly described to me being
ination are wrong, whether against belittled on campuses and suffer-
gays or Muslims, or against conser- ing what in other contexts are called
vatives or evangelicals. We shouldn’t microaggressions).
deine one as bigotry and the other as
To improve diversity, universities
enlightenment.
have tried to increase the numbers
When a survey inds that more of minority scholars in the pipeline,
than half of academics in some ields in part by being more welcoming.
would discriminate against a job Maybe a starting point to bolster
seeker who they learned was an evan- ideological diversity would likewise
gelical, that feels to me like bigotry.
be to signal that conservatives are not
Second, there’s abundant evidence second-class citizens on campuses:
of the beneits of diversity. Bringing We liberals should have the self-con-
in members of minorities is not an act idence to believe that our values can
of charity but a way of strengthen- triumph in a fair contest in the mar-
ing an organization. Yet universities ketplace of ideas.
suffer a sickly sameness: Four stud-
There are no quick solutions
ies have found that at most only about to the ideological homogeneity on
one professor in 10 in the humanities campuses, but shouldn’t we at least
or social sciences is a Republican.
acknowledge that this is a short-
I’ve often denounced conserva- coming, rather than celebrate our
tive fearmongering about Muslims sameness?
Can’t we be a bit more self-aware
and refugees, and the liberal hostil-
ity toward evangelicals seems rooted when we dismiss conservatives as so
in a similar insularity. Surveys show cocky and narrow-minded that they
that Americans have negative views should be excluded from large swaths
of Muslims when they don’t know of higher education?
Cocky? Narrow-minded? I sug-
any; I suspect many liberals disdain
evangelicals in part because they gest that we look in the mirror.