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THE DAILY ASTORIAN • MONDAY, JULY 6, 2015 NORTH COAST OSU researchers studying warm-water mass off West Coast ‘Citizen scientists’ can help with the project By DIANE DIETZ The Register-Guard research on extreme weath- er events — Àood, blizzard, drought, heat waves, wind storms — to better determine the likelihood that an\ event is associated with climate change. The science is dif¿cult be- cause extreme events occur naturall\ also. Think about a baseball pla\er on steroids, said Phil Mote, director of the Oregon Climate Change Research In- stitute at OSU. The pla\er might hit 50 home runs in a season, begin taking steroids, and then the homers jump to 70 per season. “<ou can’t sa\ an\ partic- ular home run was because of steroids, but \ou can sa\ over- all the odds have gone up,” Mote said. EUGENE — Oregon State Universit\ scientists are look- ing for a link between the Cal- ifornia drought, climate change and a mass of warm water lin- gering in the Paci¿c Ocean off the West Coast. The events ma\ be without connection — but the blob and the drought, which is troubling Oregon, too, have one thing in common: The\ are extreme. ,n recorded histor\, Califor- Massive statistical nia hasn’t seen a dr\ spell as se- analysis vere as the past four \ears. The scientists use massive The mass of warm water in the ocean — hundreds of statistical anal\sis, running miles wide and about as long as hundreds of climate scenarios, California — has average tem- to tr\ to determine the prob- peratures that are 5 degrees to abilit\ that a given extreme 7 degrees warmer than normal, event was connected with hu- Washington climatologist Nick man-caused climate change. In the past \ear, the an- Bond said. “We’re in, if not uncharted swers to speci¿c questions territor\, prett\ near it. ,t is an have emerged as probabl\ \es, extreme sort of thing,” he said. and probabl\ no. Participating groups of re- OSU scientists are joining with others at Oxford Univer- searchers found that a 013 sit\, who work with scientists heat wave in Australia was from the Ro\al Netherlands probabl\ related to global Meteorological Institute and warming, but another research the Universit\ of Melbourne in effort determined that extreme Australia to examine extreme rainfall in Colorado in the weather and to determine their same \ear was probabl\ not. Most recentl\, the research- connection, if an\, with climate ers plan to test the connection change. The teams are rel\ing on between the California drought the excess computing power and the warm-water mass b\ comparing mas- of 30,000 home sive amounts of computers vol- unteered b\ ‘We can do oceanographic climate data their owners hundreds and — and the\’re for an 18-month looking for oth- period — De- if not er would-be cit- cember 013 to izen scientists to thousands of Ma\ 015 — join in. and then com- Bond identi- simulations pare it with sim- ¿ed the mass of ilar 18-month with the warm water — stretches, begin- seen as a red-or- help of the ning in 1981. ange pool on cli- The scientists mate maps — in volunteers tweak variables late 013, and in the computer we’re it has persisted models and run since. them over and hoping to “We can over to see what keep track of recruit.’ happens. sea surface The\ will Phil Mote temperatures ask, for exam- director, Oregon Climate quite well b\ ple, whether satellites,” Bond Change Research Institute there would said. be a California While the images were tell- drought if the\ removed the ing one stor\, anecdotes from inÀuence of the warm water the ocean — of marine ecos\s- from the calculation. tem disruption — came trick- This requires anal\zing stag- ling in. gering amounts of data. The OSU scientists esti- Seabirds starved mate that the\ would need three Seabirds called Cassin’s super computers to do the job, auklets starved this winter off unless the\ could enlist the help Washington state and Oregon. of thousands of volunteers with Northwest ¿shers reported idle space on their home com- strange species in their nets, puters. skipjack tuna or ocean sun¿sh, For the past dozen \ears, the which would be more likel\ Oxford group has done projects along the coast of Baja, Calif. using the idle power of the “cit- /ast fall’s run of Fraser Riv- izen scientists” the\ drafted. The er socke\e salmon veered north technique is called distributed around Vancouver Island. The computing. Canadian ¿sher\ had a banner Volunteers download a pro- \ear and the U.S. ¿shers went gram, and then the rest is largel\ home with empt\ holds. automatic. The home computer Scientists are documenting loads a project, the does the anal- an unprecedented West Coast- \sis when it’s not otherwise oc- wide marine algae bloom this cupied and then communicates \ear. The bloom poisons shell- the results the next time the com- ¿sh, causing authorities to shut puter connects to the Internet. down harvests. “We can do hundreds if not In mid-June, thousands of thousands of simulations with red crabs washed ashore in the help of the volunteers we’re Southern California. hoping to recruit,” Mote said. In each case, researchers Mote said he volunteered wondered about whether the with his MacBook Air. He nor- warm-water mass was a factor. mall\ uses onl\ a fraction of its Air temperatures can Àuc- power. tuate up and down rapidl\, but Volunteers can go to a Web change comes more slowl\ to page and see the data graphed in real time, Mote said. the ocean, Bond said. Eventuall\, the OSU re- “There’s so much thermal inertia that a seven degree searchers will anal\ze the pat- anomal\ is ver\ large,” Bond terns, calculate the probabilit\ said. “Once \ou get the wa- that events are connected and ter so much warmer — or so publish their ¿ndings in a peer- much colder — than normal, reviewed journal, Mote said. “We hope to have enough there’s some persistence to it.” The OSU scientists are results within the next couple working with counterparts of months to write a paper and around the globe to speed up submit it this fall,” he said. W A NTED Alder and Maple Saw Logs & Standing Timber N orth w es t H a rdw oods • Lon gview , W A Contact: Steve Axtell • 360-430-0885 or John Anderson • 360-269-2500 3A Oregon students doing better than expected on new tests Black lives matter The Daily Astorian EDWARD STRATTON — The Daily Astorian The Lower Columbia Diversity Project organized a March Sunday as part of Black Lives Matter, a movement created after George Zimmerman was acquitted in the 2012 shooting death of Trayvon Martin in Florida. Around the country, the group has demanded an end to racial profiling, police brutality, mass incarceration of African Americans and the militarization of police departments. Bridge and road repairs planned The Daily Astorian The Oregon Department of Transportation continues work this week on the Astoria Bridge. The project involves recoating the steel above the bridge deck on the southern side of the Columbia River bridge along U.S. 101 north of Astoria. The scheduled work includes prepping and painting the steel above the bridge deck along with miscellaneous touch-up painting throughout the bridge structure. Flaggers control single-lane traf¿c. /ane dela\s of up to 0 minutes are al- lowed an\time on weekda\s and weekends. At 0an]anita Avenue on U.S. +ighwa\ 101 (milepost 43.00 to 43.34), ODOT is replacing an existing culvert at Neahkahnie Creek with a tun- nel structure, enhancing of the stream bed, and relocating and improving the highwa\ alignment along U.S. +ighwa\ 101 near 0an]anita. Also, turning lane movements into downtown Manza- nita are being enhanced. :ork includes installation of temporar\ shor- ing and a temporar\ water diversion s\stem. Mi- nor dela\s can be expected when Àaggers need to occasionall\ control single-lane traf¿c. Bridge rehabilitation work is being performed at both the Old <oungs Ba\ and /ewis Clark River bridges along U.S. +ighwa\ 101 Business (mileposts 4.78 and 6.89). :ork includes reconstruction of the /ewis Clark River Bridge, which is now closed until August to facilitate construction activities. A de- tour route is currentl\ designated with signing. The scheduled work at the Old <oungs Ba\ Bridge includes rehabilitation of the electrical and mechanical s\stems. :hen Àaggers need to occasionall\ control single-lane traf¿c, minor de- la\s can be expected. The Oregon State Police enforces the speed limit through the work zone areas. For information, call 5-1-1 or go to www.trip- check.com or www.odotproject.info Vintner hopes to ‘Kickstart’ winery By R.J. MARX The Daily Astorian CANNON BEACH — Mark Proden wants to bring a winer\ to the North Coast, and he is asking for the public’s help in making his dream come true. The Portland-based wine- maker, inspired b\ Manzanita and its proximit\ to the Paci¿c Ocean, is holding a Kickstarter campaign to help raise funds for The Winer\ at Manzanita. The campaign, which began in June and continues through Wednesda\, seeks to involve the communit\ in bringing a wine- making facilit\ to the coast. Originall\ from Wisconsin, Proden, 41, became interested in wine through cooking during his 11 \ears as a U.S. Air Force pilot and engineer, visiting Napa and Sonoma in California and eventuall\ Oregon. Proden said he fell in love with Oregon “the ¿rst time I came up.” He began making wine in a small space in Salem and start- ed looking for a new building in a location that was “inspired b\ nature.” Proden worked with Erath Winer\, and later in the Cubanis- mo and Orchard Heights tasting room, both in Salem. In 013, he opened his own tasting room, The Portland Wine Bar in down- town Portland, just off Pioneer Courthouse Square. Now he hopes to settle per- manentl\ in Manzanita. “I started going to Manzani- ta on m\ last few vacation da\s from the Air Force,” Proden said. “I drove up from /.A. to Manza- nita, and I thought, ‘This is such a cool little town.’ I kept going up because of m\ dog, Pinot. It’s a ver\ friendl\ dog beach, and it’s ver\ reminiscent of Nantucket, with cedar shingles and architec- ture. I thought how cool it would be to have a great winer\ so close to the beach.” Working with good friend Richard Cuddih\ — one of the legends of Oregon wine lore — Proden responded to a sign post- ed on Manzanita’s main street, /aneda Avenue, stating “Imagine the possibilities!” Cuddih\, who lived in <am- Submitted Photo Mark Proden of The Winery at Manzanita. He hopes to open his winery this fall. hill, died in 014. Manzanita Real Estate broker Charle\ /ostrom helped move the project ahead b\ brokering the location close to the beach. Upon completion, the Man- zanita winer\ will feature a shingled, 500-square-foot tast- ing room, ,000-square-foot production facilit\, with court- \ard, grapevines and string-bulb lighting. The plan calls for Ad- irondack chairs, ¿re pits, a glass roll-up garage door entrance and a two-bedroom, second-Àoor beach vacation rental with ocean- view deck. Proden is seeking $55,000 through his Kickstarter program to raise funds for a destemmer, press, fermentation tank, barrels, commercial dishwasher, tasting room bar, chairs and wine barrel ¿re pits. Rewards range from a cup of coffee a da\ for a month to tapes, pizza parties, private candlelight dinners, picnic beach lunches and an opportunit\ to de- sign \our own label. Along with pinots, Proden urged wine lovers to sample the state’s wide range of wines, es- peciall\ malbec and cabernet sauvignon. “The\’re more diver- si¿ed,” he said. “I think the pinot Fre e as Est F ima t t es ll Ca ime yt n A • Residential • Commercial •Cedar Roof Treatments • Interior & Exterior Over 20 years local experience 503-440-2169 Jeff Hale, Contractor LICENSED BONDED INSURED CCB#179131 bubble has burst a bit, because Oregon is so renowned for pinot. People are still de¿nitel\ asking for it. But then the\’re surprised to know we can grow all these single varietals that are normall\ in a blend.” He said that while some vines will be onsite, most of the wine grapes will be grown elsewhere, including throughout Oregon and Washington state. He said when seeking to part- ner with a vine\ard, he looks for growing practices and sustain- abilit\. “When \ou get into the harvest, \ou’re looking at the acid, the pH and the fruit quali- t\,” he added. Proden will make the wine himself, and said he plans to pro- duce about ,000 cases per \ear. Oregon students are out- performing expectations on the new Smarter Balanced state tests, according to the Oregon Department of Edu- cation. The department report- ed preliminar\ state-level results showing students in math and English outper- forming projections given to the state Board of Education last \ear. The department received preliminar\ results for 95 per- cent of Oregon students who took the Smarter Balanced assessment. The results cov- ered students’ performance in third-, fourth-, fifth-, sixth-, seventh-, eighth-, and 11th- grade math and English. Students who score three or four on a four-point scale in an\ area of the Smart- er Balanced assessment are considered on track to graduate college- and ca- reer-read\. The percentage of stu- dents earning a three or bet- ter on the English portion of the test exceeded expecta- tions b\ an average of 15.4 percent, increasing as stu- dents got older. Students exceeded ex- pectations in math b\ 7.3 percent. The onl\ area Ore- gon students did not exceed expectations was 11th-grade math, where percent few- er than expected passed the Smarter Balanced exam with a score of three or better. ³, am ver\ pleased to see so man\ Oregon students demonstrating college- and career-read\ skills in En- glish and math,´ Deput\ Superintendent Salam Noor said in a release b\ the de- partment. “Oregon has raised the bar and this tran- sition to higher expectations will require persistence and patience from our students and a continued focus on im- plementation and high-qual- it\ instruction from our ed- ucators.” The state expects percent- ages to drop as final results come in. More than 80,000 Or- egon students took the new Smarter Balanced assess- ments, which were aligned with higher academic stan- dards. The\ were asked to write, reason, think criti- call\ and solve multistep problems the state said bet- ter aligned with classroom learning in the real world. “Students in m\ classes prepared for the test all \ear, but there was no ‘teaching to the test,’” Janna Reid, a teacher at South Middle School in Grants Pass, said in the release. “Students practiced the skills the\’ll use after middle school and be\ond high school. These skills involve critical think- ing and problem-solving, and perhaps the most noteworth\ skill: an emphasis on writing, and writing for a purpose.” The state will release final school, district and state-level results later this summer. Got s p orts w ith the kid s b ut d on’t w a nt to m is s church? Saturday Night Church @ Seaside Calvary Church Saturday at 7 PM & Wednesday at 7 PM Corner of Ave A & Hwy 101 Across from McDonalds in Seaside