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OPINION 6A THE DAILY ASTORIAN • THURSDAY, MAY 14, 2015 Moore’s law turns 50 Founded in 1873 STEPHEN A. FORRESTER, Editor & Publisher LAURA SELLERS, Managing Editor BETTY SMITH, Advertising Manager CARL EARL, Systems Manager JOHN D. BRUIJN, Production Manager DEBRA BLOOM, Business Manager HEATHER RAMSDELL, Circulation Manager Galizio had brief, but meaningful CCC career HH IDFHG ¿ QDQFLDO FULVLV DQG RSHQHG WKH FROOHJH¶V QH[W FKDSWHU L arry Galizio’s leaving the presidency of Clatsop Community College has a familiar ring. We have not kept some of CCC’s presidents very long. Perhaps that is simply the consequence of being a small community college. There are plenty of other, larger prospects for upward mobility and, presumably, larger compensa- tion. %XW *DOL]LR¶V SUHVLGHQF\ RI ¿YH years was consequential. Like a prior CCC president, Galizio had crisis thrust upon him. The deep recession bit into &ODWVRS &ROOHJH¶V ¿QDQFLDO SLFWXUH forcing major surgery. Galizio led a much-needed restructuring. 7KH RWKHU VLJQL¿FDQW DFFRPSOLVK ment of Galizio’s term was voter approval of a bond to renovate and repurpose Patriot Hall. The college’s ground-breaking historic preservation program also came into being during Galizio’s presidency. In a similar vein, Greg Hamann, who served seven years prior to de- parting for Linn-Benton Community College, had a meaningful presidency. +DPDQQDVVHPEOHGWKH¿QDQFLDOSDFN age that funded the college’s $26 mil- lion renewal. John Wubben, who served 10 years as president, brought a stability to the college, while also being a visible play- er in the community. During Wubben’s administration, the new MERTS cam- pus opened — the result of an ambitious partnership with the Oregon Graduate Institute, Portland S t a t e University and the U.S. Navy. Wubben also provid- HG ¿QDQFLDO steward- ship for Larry Galizio the nascent Liberty Theater restoration campaign He served on the original Liberty board of directors. The brief, three-year presidency of Doreen Dailey is the perfect example of crisis. Dailey’s arrival coincided with the passage of Measure 5, which limit- ed Oregon property taxes. To cope with that cataclysm, Dailey did heavy lifting, including closing the college dairy. With luck, the next president of Clatsop Community College will not face immediate crisis. He or she will walk into an enormous asset in a re- newed Patriot Hall that will add to the college’s programs. %LUGV¿VKDQGZH can coexist I :LWKRXW ZLOGOLIH PDQDJHPHQW, LW¶V ZLVKIXO WKLQNLQJ t appears likely that a contrac- tor for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will be permitted to kill around 10,000 doubled-crested cor- morants on East Sand Island near Chinook, Wash., and oil many of their eggs so they won’t hatch. A federal judge last Friday rejected a request for a preliminary injunction to stop these actions. Advocates for the birds are running out of options. Fish-eating birds have been un- popular among lower Columbia River ¿VKHUPHQVLQFHWKHWKFHQWXU\:H don’t know whether Native American ¿VKHUPHQ DFWLYHO\ VRXJKW WR VW\ mie these avian competitors before European settlement. We do know from oral histories that salmon runs did sometimes fail in times predating the arrival of whites. We also know that most salmon runs were far more abundant than they are now, irrespec- tive of birds and Indians. This largely bolsters a major argument by bird de- fenders — that dams and habitat loss- es are the big culprits, not birds. %XWÀRZUHJLPHVLQWKH&ROXPELD Snake system are what they are; there is little realistic likelihood of large dam removal, particularly in light of the fact that hydropower is be- nign from the standpoint of climate. Fishermen and river managers don’t KDWHELUGVWKH\VLPSO\¿QGLWDPD]LQJ to go through so many expensive con- volutions to raise salmon smolts and transport them down the river, only to have more than a third of them from some runs go down the gullets of bird species that have better survival pros- pects than salmon. 7KH UHVXOWV RI VFLHQWL¿F VWXGLHV presented this month to the Northwest Power and Conservation Council, quoted by the Columbia Basin Bulletin, provide interesting food for thought on the subject of avian preda- tion: • Bird colonies vary as to how GHDGO\ WKH\ DUH WR WKH SDVVLQJ ¿VK with some colonies taking less than 1 SHUFHQWRI¿VKDQGWZRFRORQLHV(DVW Sand Island (6.8 percent) and Crescent Island (6.6 percent) in the McNary 'DP UHVHUYRLU WDNLQJ WKH PRVW ¿VK In both cases of high mortality, the numbers refer to upper Columbia River spring chinook, a species list- ed as endangered under the federal Endangered Species Act. 7KH IDUWKHU D ¿VK WUDYHOV WKH greater the predation, and, so juvenile spring chinook salmon that originate in the upper Columbia River could lose as many as 35 percent of their numbers as they pass countless bird colonies on their way to the sea, ac- cording to researchers from Oregon State University, the U.S. Geological Survey and Real Time Research. • By doing a better job of ac- counting for Passive Integrated Transponder tags that biologists put in ¿VKUHVHDUFKHUVIRXQGWKDWSUHGDWLRQ rates are higher than had previously been thought. • There’s some positive news: The lower river Caspian tern colony has been managed downward from 10,000 breeding pairs in 2008 to 6,500 pairs in 2014, with a target for 4,000 this year. This was achieved by limit- ing the physical size of the nesting site. %LUGV ¿VK DQG KXPDQV FDQ VXF cessfully coexist. But in the compli- cated and increasingly crowded times, it will take active wildlife manage- ment to accomplish this. Anything else is just wishful thinking. By THOMAS FRIEDMAN NHZ YRUN TLPHV NHZV SHUYLFH S AN FRANCISCO — On $SULO MXVW RYHU years ago, Gordon Moore, then the head of research for Fairchild Semiconductor and later one of the co-founders of Intel, was asked by EOHFWURQLFV MDJD]LQH to submit an article predicting what was going to happen to integrated circuits, the heart of computing, in the next 10 years. Studying the trend he’d seen in the previous few years, Moore predict- ed that every year we’d double the QXPEHURIWUDQVLVWRUVWKDWFRXOG¿WRQ a single chip of silicon so you’d get twice as much computing power for only slightly more money. Associated Press file Gordon Moore, the legendary Intel Corp. co-founder who predicted the growth of the semiconductor industry, smiles during a news con- ference in 2001. “Moore’s Law” turned 50 on April 19. communications, integrated circuits in and we could make explosives,” he said. GLJLWDO¿OWHUVZLOOVHSDUDWHFKDQQHOVRQ “In those days, chemistry sets had some :KHQ WKDW FDPH WUXH LQ KH multiplex equipment. [They] will also really neat things in them, and I decided PRGL¿HG KLV SUHGLFWLRQ WR D GRXEOLQJ switch telephone circuits and perform about then I wanted to be a chemist not roughly every two years. “Moore’s data processing.” knowing quite what they did, and I con- Law” has es- tinued my work in a home laboratory Moore’s foresight sentially held for some period of time. Got to the point Moore pretty much anticipated where I was turning out nitroglycerin in up ever since the personal computer, the cellphone, small production quantities and turning — and, despite self-driving cars, the iPad, Big Data and it to dynamite. ... A couple ounces of the skeptics, the Apple Watch. How did he do that? G\QDPLWHPDNHVDPDUYHORXV¿UHFUDFN keeps chugging (The only thing he missed, I jokingly er. That really got my early interest in along, making told him, was “microwave popcorn.”) it probably the it. You couldn’t duplicate that today, but “Well,” said Moore, “I had been there are other opportunities. You know, most remarkable looking at integrated circuits — [they] I look at what some of my grandkids are example ever of were really new at that time, only a doing, for example, those robotics and sustained expo- few years old — and they were very the like. These are spectacular. They’re nential growth Thomas L. expensive. There was a lot of argument really making a lot of progress.” of a technology. Friedman Looking back on Moore’s Law and as to why they would never be cheap, For the 50th and I was beginning to see, from my the power of computing that it has driv- anniversary of Moore’s Law, I interviewed Moore, position as head of a laboratory, that en, I asked Moore what he thought was now 86, at the Exploratorium in San the technology was going to go in the its most important contribution over the Francisco, at a celebration in his hon- direction where we would get more and past 50 years. “Wow!” he said. “You know, just or co-hosted by the Gordon and Betty more stuff on a chip and it would make Moore Foundation and Intel. I asked electronics less expensive. ... I had no the proliferation of computing power. him what he’d learned most from idea it was going to turn out to be a rel- We’ve just seen the beginning of what atively precise prediction, but I knew computers are going to do for us.” Moore’s Law having lasted this long. How so? the general trend was in that direction “Oh, I think incrementally we see What Moore has learned and had to give some kind of a reason “I guess one thing I’ve learned is why it was important to lower the cost them taking over opportunities that we once you’ve made a successful pre- of electronics.” tried to do without them before and diction, avoid making another one,” Can it continue? Every year some- were not successful,” he added. “It’s Moore said. “I’ve avoided opportuni- one predicts the demise of Moore’s kind of the evolution into the machine ties to predict the next 10 or 50 years.” Law, and they’re wrong. With enough intelligence, if you wish, and this is not But was he surprised by how long it good engineers working on it, he happening in one step. To me, it’s hap- has been proved basically correct? hoped, “we won’t hit a dead end. ... It’s pening in a whole bunch of increments. “Oh, I’m amazed,” he said. “The [a] unique technology. I can’t see any- I never thought I’d see autonomous original prediction was to look at 10 thing really comparable that has gone automobiles driving on the freeways. years, which I thought was a stretch. on for this long a period of time with It wasn’t many years ago [they] put out This was going from about 60 elements exponential growth.” a request to see who could build a car on an integrated circuit to 60,000 — a But let’s remember that it was en- that could go across the Mojave Desert thousandfold extrapolation over 10 abled by a group of remarkable scien- WR/DV9HJDVIURPDSODFHLQ6RXWKHUQ years. I thought that was pretty wild. tists and engineers, in an America that California, and several engineering The fact that something similar is going did not just brag about being exception- teams across the country set out to do on for 50 years is truly amazing. You al, but invested in the infrastructure and this. Nobody got more than about 300 know, there were all kinds of barriers EDVLFVFLHQWL¿FUHVHDUFKDQGVHWWKHDX yards before there was a problem. Two we could always see that (were) go- dacious goals, to make it so. If we want years later, they made the full 25-mile ing to prevent taking the next step, and to create more Moore’s Law-like tech- trip across this desert track, and which somehow or other, as we got closer, the nologies, we need to invest in the build- I thought was a huge achievement, and HQJLQHHUVKDG¿JXUHGRXWZD\VDURXQG ing blocks that produced that America. from that it was just a blink before they were driving on the these. But someday it has to stop. No Alas today our gov- freeways. I think we’re exponential like this goes on forever.” ernment is not invest- What going to see incremen- But what an exponential it’s been. In ing in basic research tal advances like that in introducing the evening, Intel’s CEO, the way it did when is most a variety of other areas.” Brian Krzanich summarized where the likes of Moore Did he worry, I Moore’s Law has taken us. If you took and Robert Noyce, the striking in asked Moore, whose ,QWHO¶V ¿UVW JHQHUDWLRQ PLFURFKLS WKH co-inventor of the in- Moore’s own microprocessors DQGWKHODWHVWFKLS,QWHOKDV tegrated circuit and the seemed as sharp as ever, RQ WKH PDUNHW WRGD\ WKH ¿IWKJHQHUD other co-founder of In- 1965 that machines would tion Core i5 processor, he said, you can tel, were coming of age. really start to replace see the power of Moore’s Law at work: “I’m disappointed article is both white-collar and Intel’s latest chip offers 3,500 times that the federal gov- PRUH SHUIRUPDQFH LV WLPHV ernment seems to be how many blue-collar labor at a scale that could mean PRUHHQHUJ\HI¿FLHQWDQGDERXW decreasing its support the end of work for a lot times lower cost. of basic research,” said predictions of people? To put that another way, Krzanich Moore. “That’s really he got “Don’t blame me!” said Intel engineers did a rough cal- where these ideas get he exclaimed! “I think culation of what would happen had a started. They take a right. it’s likely we’re going 9RONVZDJHQ %HHWOH LPSURYHG DW long time to germinate, to continue to see that. the same rate as microchips did under but eventually they lead Moore’s Law: “Here are the numbers: to some marvelous advances. Certainly, You know, for several years, I have said (Today) you would be able to go with our whole industry came out of some of we’re a two-class society separated by that car 300,000 miles per hour. You the early understanding of the quantum education. I think we’re seeing the proof would get 2 million miles per gallon of mechanics of some of the materials. I of some of that now.” When was the moment he came gas, and all that for the mere cost of 4 look at what’s happening in the biolog- cents! Now, you’d still be stuck on the ical area, which is the result of looking home and said to his wife, Betty, “Hon- (Highway) 101 getting here tonight, more detailed at the way life works, ey, they’ve named a law after me?” $QVZHUHG 0RRUH ³)RU WKH ¿UVW but, boy, in every opening you’d be go- looking at the structure of the genes ing 300,000 miles an hour!” and one thing and another. These are all years, I couldn’t utter the terms Moore’s What is most striking in Moore’s practical applications that are coming Law. It was embarrassing. It wasn’t a DUWLFOH LV KRZ PDQ\ SUHGLFWLRQV out of some very fundamental research, law. Finally, I got accustomed to it where he got right about what these steadily and our position in the world of funda- now I could say it with a straight face.” Given that, is there something that improving microchips would enable. mental science has deteriorated pretty The article, entitled “Cramming More badly. There are several other countries he wishes he had predicted — like Components Onto Integrated Circuits,” WKDWDUHVSHQGLQJDVLJQL¿FDQWO\KLJKHU Moore’s Law — but did not? I asked. “The importance of the Internet sur- argued that: “Integrated circuits will percentage of their G.N.P. than we are lead to such wonders as home comput- on basic science or on science, and ours prised me,” said Moore. “It looked like it was going to be just another minor ers — or at least terminals connected to is becoming less and less basic.” communications network that solved a central computer — automatic con- Chemistry sparks an interest certain problems. I didn’t realize it was trols for automobiles, and personal por- +RZGLGKH¿UVWJHWLQWHUHVWHGLQVFL going to open up a whole universe of table communications equipment. The new opportunities, and it certainly has. electronic wristwatch needs only a dis- ence, I asked? “My neighbor got a chemistry set I wish I had predicted that.” play to be feasible today. ... In telephone Where to write • U.S. Rep. Suzanne Bonamici (D): 2338 Rayburn HOB, Washing- ton, D.C., 20515. Phone: 202- 225- )D[ 'LVWULFW RI¿FH 6: 0LOOLNDQ :D\ 6XLWH %HDYHUWRQ 25 3KRQH)D[ 5066. Web: bonamici.house. gov/ • U.S. Sen. Jeff Merkley (D): +DUW 6HQDWH 2I¿FH %XLOGLQJ Washington, D.C. 20510. Phone: :HE ZZZPHUNOH\ senate.gov • State Rep. Brad Witt (D): 6WDWH&DSLWRO&RXUW6WUHHW1( + 6DOHP 25 3KRQH :HE ZZZOHJVWDWH or.us/witt/ Email: rep.bradwitt@ state.or.us • State Rep. Deborah Boone (D)&RXUW6W1(+6D OHP 25 3KRQH 1432. Email: rep.deborah boone@ VWDWHRUXV'LVWULFWRI¿FH32%R[ &DQQRQ %HDFK 25 3KRQH :HE ZZZ leg.state.or.us/ boone/ • State Sen. Betsy Johnson (D): 6WDWH &DSLWRO &RXUW 6W 1( 66DOHP257HOHSKRQH (PDLOVHQEHWV\MRKQ son@state.or.us Web: www.betsy- MRKQVRQFRP'LVWULFW2I¿FH32%R[ 56FDSSRRVH253KRQH )D[$VWRULD RI¿FHSKRQH
