OPINION
6A
THE DAILY ASTORIAN • THURSDAY, MAY 14, 2015
Moore’s law turns 50
Founded in 1873
STEPHEN A. FORRESTER, Editor & Publisher
LAURA SELLERS, Managing Editor
BETTY SMITH, Advertising Manager
CARL EARL, Systems Manager
JOHN D. BRUIJN, Production Manager
DEBRA BLOOM, Business Manager
HEATHER RAMSDELL, Circulation Manager
Galizio had brief, but
meaningful CCC career
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arry Galizio’s leaving the presidency of Clatsop Community
College has a familiar ring. We have not kept some of CCC’s
presidents very long. Perhaps that is simply the consequence of
being a small community college. There are plenty of other, larger
prospects for upward mobility and, presumably, larger compensa-
tion.
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years was consequential. Like a prior
CCC president, Galizio had crisis thrust
upon him. The deep recession bit into
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forcing major surgery. Galizio led a
much-needed restructuring.
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ment of Galizio’s term was voter
approval of a bond to renovate and
repurpose Patriot Hall. The college’s
ground-breaking historic preservation
program also came into being during
Galizio’s presidency.
In a similar vein, Greg Hamann,
who served seven years prior to de-
parting for Linn-Benton Community
College, had a meaningful presidency.
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age that funded the college’s $26 mil-
lion renewal.
John Wubben, who served 10 years
as president, brought a stability to the
college, while also being a visible play-
er in the community. During Wubben’s
administration, the new MERTS cam-
pus opened — the result of an ambitious
partnership with the Oregon Graduate
Institute,
Portland
S t a t e
University
and
the
U.S. Navy.
Wubben
also provid-
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steward-
ship
for
Larry Galizio
the nascent
Liberty Theater restoration campaign
He served on the original Liberty board
of directors.
The brief, three-year presidency of
Doreen Dailey is the perfect example
of crisis. Dailey’s arrival coincided with
the passage of Measure 5, which limit-
ed Oregon property taxes. To cope with
that cataclysm, Dailey did heavy lifting,
including closing the college dairy.
With luck, the next president of
Clatsop Community College will not
face immediate crisis. He or she will
walk into an enormous asset in a re-
newed Patriot Hall that will add to the
college’s programs.
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can coexist
I
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t appears likely that a contrac-
tor for the U.S. Army Corps of
Engineers will be permitted to kill
around 10,000 doubled-crested cor-
morants on East Sand Island near
Chinook, Wash., and oil many of
their eggs so they won’t hatch.
A federal judge last Friday rejected
a request for a preliminary injunction
to stop these actions. Advocates for
the birds are running out of options.
Fish-eating birds have been un-
popular among lower Columbia River
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don’t know whether Native American
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mie these avian competitors before
European settlement. We do know
from oral histories that salmon runs
did sometimes fail in times predating
the arrival of whites. We also know
that most salmon runs were far more
abundant than they are now, irrespec-
tive of birds and Indians. This largely
bolsters a major argument by bird de-
fenders — that dams and habitat loss-
es are the big culprits, not birds.
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Snake system are what they are; there
is little realistic likelihood of large
dam removal, particularly in light
of the fact that hydropower is be-
nign from the standpoint of climate.
Fishermen and river managers don’t
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to go through so many expensive con-
volutions to raise salmon smolts and
transport them down the river, only to
have more than a third of them from
some runs go down the gullets of bird
species that have better survival pros-
pects than salmon.
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presented this month to the Northwest
Power and Conservation Council,
quoted by the Columbia Basin
Bulletin, provide interesting food for
thought on the subject of avian preda-
tion:
• Bird colonies vary as to how
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with some colonies taking less than 1
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Sand Island (6.8 percent) and Crescent
Island (6.6 percent) in the McNary
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In both cases of high mortality, the
numbers refer to upper Columbia
River spring chinook, a species list-
ed as endangered under the federal
Endangered Species Act.
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greater the predation, and, so juvenile
spring chinook salmon that originate
in the upper Columbia River could
lose as many as 35 percent of their
numbers as they pass countless bird
colonies on their way to the sea, ac-
cording to researchers from Oregon
State University, the U.S. Geological
Survey and Real Time Research.
• By doing a better job of ac-
counting for Passive Integrated
Transponder tags that biologists put in
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rates are higher than had previously
been thought.
• There’s some positive news:
The lower river Caspian tern colony
has been managed downward from
10,000 breeding pairs in 2008 to 6,500
pairs in 2014, with a target for 4,000
this year. This was achieved by limit-
ing the physical size of the nesting site.
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cessfully coexist. But in the compli-
cated and increasingly crowded times,
it will take active wildlife manage-
ment to accomplish this. Anything
else is just wishful thinking.
By THOMAS FRIEDMAN
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AN FRANCISCO — On
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years ago, Gordon Moore, then
the head of research for Fairchild
Semiconductor and later one of the
co-founders of Intel, was asked by
EOHFWURQLFV MDJD]LQH to submit an
article predicting what was going
to happen to integrated circuits, the
heart of computing, in the next 10
years.
Studying the trend he’d seen in the
previous few years, Moore predict-
ed that every year we’d double the
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a single chip of silicon so you’d get
twice as much computing power for
only slightly more money.
Associated Press file
Gordon Moore, the legendary Intel Corp. co-founder who predicted
the growth of the semiconductor industry, smiles during a news con-
ference in 2001. “Moore’s Law” turned 50 on April 19.
communications, integrated circuits in and we could make explosives,” he said.
GLJLWDO¿OWHUVZLOOVHSDUDWHFKDQQHOVRQ “In those days, chemistry sets had some
:KHQ WKDW FDPH WUXH LQ KH multiplex equipment. [They] will also really neat things in them, and I decided
PRGL¿HG KLV SUHGLFWLRQ WR D GRXEOLQJ switch telephone circuits and perform about then I wanted to be a chemist not
roughly every two years. “Moore’s data processing.”
knowing quite what they did, and I con-
Law” has es-
tinued my work in a home laboratory
Moore’s foresight
sentially held
for some period of time. Got to the point
Moore pretty much anticipated where I was turning out nitroglycerin in
up ever since
the personal computer, the cellphone, small production quantities and turning
— and, despite
self-driving cars, the iPad, Big Data and it to dynamite. ... A couple ounces of
the
skeptics,
the Apple Watch. How did he do that? G\QDPLWHPDNHVDPDUYHORXV¿UHFUDFN
keeps chugging
(The only thing he missed, I jokingly er. That really got my early interest in
along, making
told him, was “microwave popcorn.”)
it probably the
it. You couldn’t duplicate that today, but
“Well,” said Moore, “I had been there are other opportunities. You know,
most remarkable
looking at integrated circuits — [they] I look at what some of my grandkids are
example ever of
were really new at that time, only a doing, for example, those robotics and
sustained expo-
few years old — and they were very the like. These are spectacular. They’re
nential growth
Thomas L.
expensive. There was a lot of argument really making a lot of progress.”
of a technology.
Friedman
Looking back on Moore’s Law and
as to why they would never be cheap,
For the 50th
and I was beginning to see, from my the power of computing that it has driv-
anniversary of
Moore’s Law, I interviewed Moore, position as head of a laboratory, that en, I asked Moore what he thought was
now 86, at the Exploratorium in San the technology was going to go in the its most important contribution over the
Francisco, at a celebration in his hon- direction where we would get more and past 50 years.
“Wow!” he said. “You know, just
or co-hosted by the Gordon and Betty more stuff on a chip and it would make
Moore Foundation and Intel. I asked electronics less expensive. ... I had no the proliferation of computing power.
him what he’d learned most from idea it was going to turn out to be a rel- We’ve just seen the beginning of what
atively precise prediction, but I knew computers are going to do for us.”
Moore’s Law having lasted this long.
How so?
the general trend was in that direction
“Oh, I think incrementally we see
What Moore has learned
and had to give some kind of a reason
“I guess one thing I’ve learned is why it was important to lower the cost them taking over opportunities that we
once you’ve made a successful pre- of electronics.”
tried to do without them before and
diction, avoid making another one,”
Can it continue? Every year some- were not successful,” he added. “It’s
Moore said. “I’ve avoided opportuni- one predicts the demise of Moore’s kind of the evolution into the machine
ties to predict the next 10 or 50 years.” Law, and they’re wrong. With enough intelligence, if you wish, and this is not
But was he surprised by how long it good engineers working on it, he happening in one step. To me, it’s hap-
has been proved basically correct?
hoped, “we won’t hit a dead end. ... It’s pening in a whole bunch of increments.
“Oh, I’m amazed,” he said. “The [a] unique technology. I can’t see any- I never thought I’d see autonomous
original prediction was to look at 10 thing really comparable that has gone automobiles driving on the freeways.
years, which I thought was a stretch. on for this long a period of time with It wasn’t many years ago [they] put out
This was going from about 60 elements exponential growth.”
a request to see who could build a car
on an integrated circuit to 60,000 — a
But let’s remember that it was en- that could go across the Mojave Desert
thousandfold extrapolation over 10 abled by a group of remarkable scien- WR/DV9HJDVIURPDSODFHLQ6RXWKHUQ
years. I thought that was pretty wild. tists and engineers, in an America that California, and several engineering
The fact that something similar is going did not just brag about being exception- teams across the country set out to do
on for 50 years is truly amazing. You al, but invested in the infrastructure and this. Nobody got more than about 300
know, there were all kinds of barriers EDVLFVFLHQWL¿FUHVHDUFKDQGVHWWKHDX yards before there was a problem. Two
we could always see that (were) go- dacious goals, to make it so. If we want years later, they made the full 25-mile
ing to prevent taking the next step, and to create more Moore’s Law-like tech- trip across this desert track, and which
somehow or other, as we got closer, the nologies, we need to invest in the build- I thought was a huge achievement, and
HQJLQHHUVKDG¿JXUHGRXWZD\VDURXQG ing blocks that produced that America. from that it was just a blink before they
were driving on the
these. But someday it has to stop. No
Alas today our gov-
freeways. I think we’re
exponential like this goes on forever.”
ernment is not invest-
What
going to see incremen-
But what an exponential it’s been. In ing in basic research
tal advances like that in
introducing the evening, Intel’s CEO, the way it did when
is most
a variety of other areas.”
Brian Krzanich summarized where the likes of Moore
Did he worry, I
Moore’s Law has taken us. If you took and Robert Noyce, the
striking in
asked Moore, whose
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Moore’s
own microprocessors
DQGWKHODWHVWFKLS,QWHOKDV tegrated circuit and the
seemed as sharp as ever,
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1965
that machines would
tion Core i5 processor, he said, you can tel, were coming of age.
really start to replace
see the power of Moore’s Law at work:
“I’m disappointed
article is
both white-collar and
Intel’s latest chip offers 3,500 times that the federal gov-
PRUH SHUIRUPDQFH LV WLPHV ernment seems to be
how many blue-collar labor at a
scale that could mean
PRUHHQHUJ\HI¿FLHQWDQGDERXW decreasing its support
the end of work for a lot
times lower cost.
of basic research,” said predictions
of people?
To put that another way, Krzanich Moore. “That’s really
he got
“Don’t blame me!”
said Intel engineers did a rough cal- where these ideas get
he
exclaimed! “I think
culation of what would happen had a started. They take a
right.
it’s likely we’re going
9RONVZDJHQ %HHWOH LPSURYHG DW long time to germinate,
to continue to see that.
the same rate as microchips did under but eventually they lead
Moore’s Law: “Here are the numbers: to some marvelous advances. Certainly, You know, for several years, I have said
(Today) you would be able to go with our whole industry came out of some of we’re a two-class society separated by
that car 300,000 miles per hour. You the early understanding of the quantum education. I think we’re seeing the proof
would get 2 million miles per gallon of mechanics of some of the materials. I of some of that now.”
When was the moment he came
gas, and all that for the mere cost of 4 look at what’s happening in the biolog-
cents! Now, you’d still be stuck on the ical area, which is the result of looking home and said to his wife, Betty, “Hon-
(Highway) 101 getting here tonight, more detailed at the way life works, ey, they’ve named a law after me?”
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but, boy, in every opening you’d be go- looking at the structure of the genes
ing 300,000 miles an hour!”
and one thing and another. These are all years, I couldn’t utter the terms Moore’s
What is most striking in Moore’s practical applications that are coming Law. It was embarrassing. It wasn’t a
DUWLFOH LV KRZ PDQ\ SUHGLFWLRQV out of some very fundamental research, law. Finally, I got accustomed to it where
he got right about what these steadily and our position in the world of funda- now I could say it with a straight face.”
Given that, is there something that
improving microchips would enable. mental science has deteriorated pretty
The article, entitled “Cramming More badly. There are several other countries he wishes he had predicted — like
Components Onto Integrated Circuits,” WKDWDUHVSHQGLQJDVLJQL¿FDQWO\KLJKHU Moore’s Law — but did not? I asked.
“The importance of the Internet sur-
argued that: “Integrated circuits will percentage of their G.N.P. than we are
lead to such wonders as home comput- on basic science or on science, and ours prised me,” said Moore. “It looked like
it was going to be just another minor
ers — or at least terminals connected to is becoming less and less basic.”
communications network that solved
a central computer — automatic con-
Chemistry sparks an interest certain problems. I didn’t realize it was
trols for automobiles, and personal por-
+RZGLGKH¿UVWJHWLQWHUHVWHGLQVFL going to open up a whole universe of
table communications equipment. The
new opportunities, and it certainly has.
electronic wristwatch needs only a dis- ence, I asked?
“My neighbor got a chemistry set I wish I had predicted that.”
play to be feasible today. ... In telephone
Where to write
• U.S. Rep. Suzanne Bonamici
(D): 2338 Rayburn HOB, Washing-
ton, D.C., 20515. Phone: 202- 225-
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RI¿FH 6: 0LOOLNDQ :D\
6XLWH %HDYHUWRQ 25
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5066. Web: bonamici.house. gov/
• U.S. Sen. Jeff Merkley (D):
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Washington, D.C. 20510. Phone:
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senate.gov
• State Rep. Brad Witt (D):
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+ 6DOHP 25 3KRQH
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or.us/witt/ Email: rep.bradwitt@
state.or.us
• State Rep. Deborah Boone
(D)&RXUW6W1(+6D
OHP 25 3KRQH
1432. Email: rep.deborah boone@
VWDWHRUXV'LVWULFWRI¿FH32%R[
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leg.state.or.us/ boone/
• State Sen. Betsy Johnson (D):
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66DOHP257HOHSKRQH
(PDLOVHQEHWV\MRKQ
son@state.or.us Web: www.betsy-
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