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About Keizertimes. (Salem, Or.) 1979-current | View Entire Issue (April 23, 2021)
APRIL 23, 2021, KEIZERTIMES, PAGE A9 City’s population forecast plummets with new report By ERIC A. HOWALD the area and, as the Of the Keizertimes county ages, the more Fewer people moving into In 2019, Keizer started planning likely they are to stay to absorb roughly 10,000 residents in place,” Witham said. the area and, as the • Deaths are during the next 20 years. expected to outnum- The projection is now almost half county ages, the more ber births. In 2020, of what it was two years ago. likely they are to deaths appeared to According to a preliminary report have outnumbered from the Portland State University stay in place. births for the first time. Population Forecast Program, Keizer There were roughly may only grow by 5,700 between now 2,000 more deaths and 2045. The projections have not in 2020, more than been formally adopted, but there are INTERIM DEVELOPMENT DIRECTOR 1,600 of those were a number of circumstances that led attributed COVID- to the dramatic decrease. 19. The birth-death First and foremost, the projections rate could return to are the first ever to estimate Keizer’s pre-pandemic projec- growth as distinct from Salem. The two result of migration to the area. Currently, cities share an Urban Growth Boundary net migration into Marion County tions, but the speed at which that will hap- and Keizer officials requested a separate remains higher than the numbers of those pen remains uncertain. During 2044- 2045, forecast for planning purposes. leaving. The peak of net migration to Numerous trends in population esti- Marion County so far was in 2017. mates will also have an impact: Shane Witham, Keizer’s interim com- • Growth in Marion County is fore- munity development director, addressed cast to flatline by 2045 and remain rela- the data point in a meeting of the Keizer tively constant for at least until 2070. The Planning Commission Wednesday, April county population may, however, increase 14. before sliding to nil. “We have a more elderly population • Much of the decrease will come as a right now and fewer people moving into — SHANE WITHAM according to the report, there will be 4,796 deaths, compared to 3,813 births. “County-wide we are looking at a net reduction of about 60,000 people,” Witham said. The Keizer planning com- missioners will have to spend a signif- icant amount of time talking about the new numbers, he added. Keizer officials were planning to adopt an updated assessment of the city’s housing needs in May or June, but the report was based on the now-outdated projections. The reduced projections may end up saving the city money because they might negate the need to also produce a housing strategy. The city currently has an estimated population of 39,968 and is expected to grow to 45,700 by 2045.