APRIL 23, 2021, KEIZERTIMES, PAGE A9
City’s population forecast
plummets with new report
By ERIC A. HOWALD
the area and, as the
Of the Keizertimes
county ages, the more
Fewer people moving into
In 2019, Keizer started planning
likely they are to stay
to absorb roughly 10,000 residents
in place,” Witham said.
the area and, as the
•
Deaths
are
during the next 20 years.
expected to outnum-
The projection is now almost half
county ages, the more
ber births. In 2020,
of what it was two years ago.
likely they are to
deaths appeared to
According to a preliminary report
have
outnumbered
from the Portland State University
stay in place.
births for the first time.
Population Forecast Program, Keizer
There were roughly
may only grow by 5,700 between now
2,000 more deaths
and 2045. The projections have not
in 2020, more than
been formally adopted, but there are
INTERIM DEVELOPMENT DIRECTOR
1,600 of those were
a number of circumstances that led
attributed
COVID-
to the dramatic decrease.
19. The birth-death
First and foremost, the projections
rate could return to
are the first ever to estimate Keizer’s
pre-pandemic projec-
growth as distinct from Salem. The two
result of migration to the area. Currently,
cities share an Urban Growth Boundary net migration into Marion County tions, but the speed at which that will hap-
and Keizer officials requested a separate remains higher than the numbers of those pen remains uncertain. During 2044- 2045,
forecast for planning purposes.
leaving. The peak of net migration to
Numerous trends in population esti- Marion County so far was in 2017.
mates will also have an impact:
Shane Witham, Keizer’s interim com-
• Growth in Marion County is fore- munity development director, addressed
cast to flatline by 2045 and remain rela- the data point in a meeting of the Keizer
tively constant for at least until 2070. The Planning Commission Wednesday, April
county population may, however, increase 14.
before sliding to nil.
“We have a more elderly population
• Much of the decrease will come as a right now and fewer people moving into
— SHANE WITHAM
according to the report, there will be 4,796
deaths, compared to 3,813 births.
“County-wide we are looking at a
net reduction of about 60,000 people,”
Witham said. The Keizer planning com-
missioners will have to spend a signif-
icant amount of time talking about the
new numbers, he added.
Keizer officials were planning to adopt
an updated assessment of the city’s
housing needs in May or June, but the
report was based on the now-outdated
projections.
The reduced projections may end up
saving the city money because they might
negate the need to also produce a housing
strategy.
The city currently has an estimated
population of 39,968 and is expected to
grow to 45,700 by 2045.
