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About The Ontario Argus. (Ontario, Or.) 1???-1947 | View Entire Issue (Dec. 28, 1922)
THE ONTARIO ARGUS, ONTABIO, OREGON, TEURSDAT, DEC, 28. 1922 BUSINESS AND SECURITIES DURING THE YEAR 1923 Wollesley Hills, Mass., December SO, 1922. "What's going to hap pen In 1923?" That question Id uppermost In the mlnils ol 1,000,000 American busi nessmen and Investors who aro fac ing the problem of making plans for tho Now Year. Signs are not clear and tho usual barometers seem to contradict one another. In the faco of this general con fusion we had best fall back on the facts and figures. After a thoro study of tho fundamental conditions that govern our market, Roger W. Babson today Issued a statement which clears the air and furnishes a basis of fact for your plans. "We are now at a point in the busl ness cycle," says Mr. Babson, "where you can get almost as many differ ent opinions as there aro business men. Some are very bullish for the coming year, and others cannot see much hope for" business. The reas on for such a situation is that we are at present neither atthe top of a boom nor at the depth of a depres sion. If we wore at either1 of v these extremes there woud be no question of what tho next move would be. As it is, we are about half way be tween them. ."During the past i year United States business has steadily ad vanced until the average for the ) whole country is what we usually call 'normal' business. Having ad vanced thus far, shall we immedi ately continue Into a great prosper ity period or shal we go into nn othex period of depression and poor business as some predict? "If you will only remember the five years preceding 1921 and recall what an enormous orgy of expansion existed, you can see for yourself that It will take some tlmo to get a proper foundation for really good business. We danced during those years, and now wo must 'pay the fiddler his complete bill. Business has really been liko a convalescing patient. Everything will go well with tho patient If he does not try to get out of bed too soon. If ho tries to overdo he will have a re lapse. We now have passed the most painful part of the readjust ment. The crisis is over, but a pro cess of cost reduction and re-bal ancing is necessary." Price Spread is Wide "Today a wide disparity exists betwe'en prices of different com modities.and particularly the spread between producors' and consumers' goods. This Is a brake on trade. One half of the people cannot earn enough to buy the goods that the other half has to sell. There aro one hundred and six million people in tho United States and fifty per cent of them get their living from producing and distributing raw ma terials. It has thus far been im possible to reduce the prices of fin ished consumer's goods to meel tho cuts on these raw materials. Th purchasing power of these people is out of Its natural proportion. "It is not entirely a matter of re ducing wages, altho labor socts aro a large factor, nor is it entirely a mat tor of Inefficient management. No, tho problem of high costs is not a problem of any ono element; anl re adjustment can come in only one way drastic competition. All this will take further time. "Does this mean tliat there wll be no opportunities in 1923? Not a bit! Thero will be Just as many chances to make money as In any year you ever lived. It will be pos sible for you to make as much dur ing the next twelvo months as in any year of your business life, but it will not be along the lines which made money in 1919 and 1920, or in any other boom year. The pro fits In 1923 will come by giving at tention to detoails, by stopping tho little leaks, by saving here and there thru new labor-saving Inven tions, and most of all, by devising new and more economical means of distributing goods. This was not at all the stfUation during the busi ness boom. Then the man who stopped to prevent small leaks found himself caught by the momentous rise in prices and changes In gen eral conditions. "Those days have passed. They were wild and merry whllo they last ed. Now business has come back to earth. In most industries, an excessive producing capacity was created. During the boom, over head costs were lncreaased to keep up with an abnormal turnover. To day the amount of business has dropped back moro nearly to nor mal, but costs have not been propor tionately reduced. Higher wages, higher rents, more expensive sales organization In fact, nearly every Item of expense la out of proportion with tho amount of business done. "Instead of wild gyrations in the commodity markets, the average trend thruout the coming year havo really not started yet, but the Bhould bo more of a sldewlse move- statistical position of tho metal is ment. Some commodities are high and others are very low, but the majority at present aro about 15 por cent above their levels a year ago. A year from now wo shall probably find them averaging at about the same levels they stand today. In between, there may bo a further rally from tho low of 1922, and agricultural products certainly will do better." Earnings Will Bo Higher "Earnings," continued Mr. Bab- scfii, "should average somewhat bet ter than in tho year Just passed. A survey of 100 leading industrial onlycompanles, recently mado by my organization, showed that in 1919, 96 per cent of theso companies made a not profit, while only 4 per cent showed a deficit. In 1921, the number of firms which could show 'a profit was cut down to 48 per cent. Over half, or C2 per cent of theso industrial concerns lost money on their year's business. 1922 has wit nessed a change from red ink fig ures, but the amount of net profits will not be largo when the books are finally balanced. Wo aro Just getting back .onto the right side of the ledger. "The shortago of labor Is one of tho worst features of tho 1923 out look. The moment that business works up to average activity it be comes impossible to get sufficient workers. This raises costs and in turnincreasesi commodity prices and the cost of living. The immigration law Is largely the cause of this shortago. This law restricts the number of immigrants In a single year to 3 -per cent of tho total num ber already in the United States. Before the war we had an addition of million immigrants a year. Now we, aro receiving less than 300,000 and at least CO per cent of these are women, children or other depen dents. On the other hand, I doubt If the repeal of this 3 per cent Im migration law Is the proper solution of tho present labor shortage. "The real solution Is not the re peal of the present Immigration law but rather tho repeal of the Con tract Labor Law for as long as the 3 per cent law remains In force. This would make it possible for em ployers to promise selected foreign workers employment before eavlng their own homes. Tho moment that the immigration law is repealed the Contract Labor Law can again be applied. "There should bo no great diffi culty in getting ample supplies of bituminous coal this winter. The car shortage is diminishing some what. Amplo supplies of bitumin ous coal are being produced suggest ing lower prices. Tho mischief of this situation lies in the fact that It will again be to the advantage of both miners and operators to close tho mines for a time. The diffi culties which brought on tho strike last year havo not boon settled. There is serious danger of another strike In the soft coal fields. "Eeverybody Is worrying about the political situation. There Is talk of 'radical legislation during the com ing year. Most of this is merely tho echo from campaign speeches. It may bo a noisy year. Both tho Conservatives and tho Radicals havo a veto power, but neither is strong enough to push thru any extreme moasures of its own. Tho only kind of legislation that will really be enactod Is that which will appeal to members of both groups. Al ready tho Federal Reserve Board has issued a ruling, admitting a large amount of agricultural paper for redlscountlng In the Federal Re servo Banks. Tho Muscle Shoals problem will probably bo settled, olther by sao to onry Ford or by de velopment on tho part of tho gov ernment ltBelf. The Soldier's bonus will probably be enacted, altho no agreement as to tho terms or means of raising tho money has yet bee,n made. It is improbable that thero will bo any Increase In tho amount of business taxes. "The political aspect has fright ened many stockholders, but It Is entirely too early to be worrlod. Tho thing to watch Is fundamental conditions. Wo are still in a re adjustment period. This means that sooner or later we shall work toward bettor prosperity. It Is truo that industrial stocks are much higher than a year ago and are cer tainly not the bargains that they were. However, as I havo already state, certain lines of- industry are Just getting ready to go forword. The Industrial market will be spotty, but thero aro a great many Issues that should do better In tho coming year. "The rail group Is, relatively, not so far advanced as the Industrials. I do not believe that rails should be bought indiscriminately, but the rail average will follow up tho general market. I am more attracted to the long-haul roads than to the shorter lines. Tho motor truck is a feeder for tho former but a com petitor of the latter, Copper stocks far better than it has been for somo time. Coppers, certainly, oro sell ing at bargain levels. "Money conditions should con tinue good. Thero is no question that the banks aro In a strong posi tion. Tho Federal Reservo Banks today havo reserves equal to about 76 por cent of their noto nnd de posit liabilities. Tho reserve de qulred is between 35 per cent and 40 per cent. It is true, that when foreign countries begin to get on their feet, It will bo necessary to send much of this gold back. For the present, however, this gold re presents the basis on which a con siderable oxpansion of credit can be built. It guarantees to us a rel atively easy money rate, until heavy gold exports aro resumed. During the coming year, borrowers need havo little fear of lack of funds for all legitimate purposes, and this al so applies to long-term money, that is, capital for permanent invest ment. Mortgage rates during 1923 should work lower. Today, tho av erage rato of Veal estate mortgages thruout the United States is between 6 and 7 per cent. The time Is not far away when this averago will stand between 5 and 6 per cent. "Of course, tho ease of tho money market is distinctly favorable to long-time bonds. Thoro Is apolnt In tho business cycle when industry becomes so active tlmt money is aab sorbed by trade. When this occurs bonds are sold and develop a down ward, tendency. This point In the cycle has not yot appeared. More over, history shows that following tho Civil Ward bond prices, barring temporrary fluctuations, roso for a long period of yoars, the advance culminating about 1900. Frpm this point, a descent -was gradually made to a low point at tho end of tho European War. Since this low point, history Is repeating itself, bonds having reached a middle ground, but still far below tho 3.80 or 4 per cent baslsi of tho 1900 per iod. All these factors suggest that 'well selected bonds, both municipal and corporation, are a distinct pur shase. "Bonds money," concluded Mr. Babson, "aro certainly sound fac tors In the situation. As for busi ness as a whole, there is no doubt that it will average hotter this com ing year than It did in 1922. This does not mean that thero will be any boom, but that there will be plenty of money making opportunities for those who know fundamental condi tions." General -business according to tho index of tho Babsonchart stands at only 2 per cent below normal, the samo as a week ago. Attention Sheepmen "See McFall and Soe Bettor" DR. J. A. M'fAll Eyesight Specialist, Ontario, Ore. WB GRIND OUR OWN LENSES I Phon:U7J I can save you $2.50 per ton on your hay with Fordson Tractor and Hay Grinder. We take what you save the first year for pay. V.B. STAPLES Ford Garage Holiday Rates I NOTICE TO CREDITORS Notice is hereby given that the underslgnod, has been appointed as Administrator with Will Annexed of the Estate of Elsie A. Fairchlld, deceased, by the County Court of the State'of Oregon for Malheur county. All persons who may havo any Claim against tho estate of the said deceased aro hereby notified to pre sent the same duly verified as by Law required, to the undersigned at my office in Ontario, Orogon, within six months from the dato of the first publication of this notice. C. McQonagill, Administrator of Estate of Elsie A. Fairchlld, deceased, with Will Annexed. Date of first publication, Nov. 30, 1922. Date of last publication, Dec. 28, 1922. Between points on v Oregon Short Line Railroad December 22-23-24-25-29-30- 31 and January 1st Limit January 3d D. S, SPENCER General Passenger Agent SALT. LAKE CITY Consult Local Agents SUMMONS IN THE CIRCUIT COURT OF THE STATE OF OREGON FOR MALHEUR COUNTY FOR SALE Modern house, attrac tive home close in. A bargain. See W. L. Turner. 52tf. Suitable for Bread, cake or lard containers. Sugar Bowl. . .SOUTHEAST UNIT DRAINAGE. . DISTRICT NOTICE OF ELECTION NOTICE IS HEREBY GIVEN, That a meeting of tho land owners within the SOUTHEAST UNIT DRAINAGE DISTRICT, In Mal heur County, Oregon, Is hereby called to meet at the residence of C. W. Garrett, in Section 12, T. 18 S., R. 46 E...W. M., in said Dis trict, on Saturday, the- 30th day of December, 1922, at the hour of 2 o'clock P. M. for the purpose of electing two supervisors for said District, one to serve for the term of two years and ono to serve for tho term of threo years. By order of the Board of Super visors. Dated this 11th day of December, 1922.. O. E. CARMAN, Secretary, Southeast Unit Drainage District. First publication Dec. 14, 1922. Last publication Dec. 28, 1922. NOTICE TO CREDITORS IN THE COUNTY COURT OFTHE STATE OF OREGON FOR MALHEUR COUNTY In The Matter of the Estate of Herman Thomas Blerman, Deceased Notice Is hereby given by Fran ces Josephlno Blerman, administra trix of the estate of Herman Thom as Blerman, Deceased, to the credi tors of, and all persons having claims against, said estate, to pre ont such claims, with 'the necessary vouchers according to law, within six months after the first publica tion of this notice, to Frances Jose phlno Blerman, administratrix of the estate of Herman Thomas Bler man, deceased, at the law offlco of W. H. Brooke in Ontario, Oregon. The first notice hereof is pub lished this 14th day of December, 1922. FRANCES JOSEPHINE BIERUAN, Administratrix of the Estate of Herman Thomas Blerman, De ceased. Last publication Jan, 12, 1923. RICHARD L. SCOTT, Plaintiff, TS. ELIZABETH JOHNSON. MAUD CAMMANN, MONA CAMMANN. FLORENCE BRASWELL. heirs fit. law of Franklin Camman, de ceased, and to tho heirs both known and unknown of Eliza Ellon Westfall, Defendants. TO ELIZABETH JOHNSON AND TO ALL OF THE HEIRS OF ELIZA ELLEN WESTFALL, Deceased. You and each of you are horoby required to appear and answer the complaint filed against you In the above entitled court and cause, on or bofore tho oxplratlon of the time prescribed In the Order for Publi cation, to-wit: On or before the expiration of six weeks from tho dato of the first publication of this summons, and It you fall to answer for want thereof, plaintiff will apply to tho Court for tho relief demanded in said com plaint, to-wit: For a decree of this court decreeing tho plaintiff to bo tho owner of tho following described real property. Tho South half (S) of the Southwest Quarter (SW). the Northwest Quarter (NW) of tho Southwost Quarter (SWU) of Sec. 18; Tho Northeast Quarter (NEtt) of the Northwest Quarter (NWVi). tho Northwest Quarter (NWU) of the Southeast Quarter (SE), the Southwost Quarter (SWU) of the Northeast QuartortNE'i ), and the Southeast Quarter (SHU) of the Northwost Quarter (NWU) of Sec tion 19; Tho Southwest Quarter (SW4) and tho Southwest Quarter of tho Southeast Quarter (SWU SE) and that tract of land com mencing at tho Southeast corner of Section 19; running thonco North on Section lino to Bully Crook; thonco up tho bo'd of Bully Creok to a point whore tho North lino of the Southeast Quarter of tho South east Quarter (SEKSEVi)of Section 19 crosses said Bully Creek; thence West to tho Northwest corner of the Southeast Quartor of tho Southeast Quarter (SB4SEi) of Section 19; thence South to the Soctlon line; thenco East to tho place of begin ning, containing 25 acres and the whole of said land containing 225 acres, more or loss, all being In Soctlon 19, Township 18, South, Range 41 E. W. M Malheur Coun ty, Oregon, together with tho ten ements, hereditaments and appur tenances thoreunto belonging, or In anywise appertaining, Including all wator rights: and fororer foreclos ing and barring all their right, title, and lntorest of defendant Elizabeth Johnson and all of the heirs, botb known and unknown of Eliza Ellen Westfall, In and to said described property, and for such other and further relief as to the Court might seem meet and equitable In the premises. This summons is published pur suant to an order of tho Honorable Dalton Biggs, Circuit Judge, made and ontered on this 20th day of De cember, 1922, tho first publication thereof Is mado on the 21st day of Decembor. 1922, and tho last pub lication thereof, on tho 1st day of Fob,, 1923. P. J. GALLAGHER. Attorney for plaintiff, residing at Ontario, Oregon Cause m tobacco and Effect m ivi Lioobtt ft Mtkk Tobacco Cft Mrs, Lott Johnson Is ,now pro pared to do sowing at resldonco two blocks north of wost-side schooL Phono 87 M. 52 it FOR SALE Two cars dry land ru ral seed potatoes, field soloctod and rogued $1.50 per 100. Ell Keller, IUrU, Idaho, 52 Qt FOR SALE 5 room shingle bunga- ' low with 4 lots and carafe. S blocks north and 2 west ol Hlfi school. Price $1001. Easy terns. Write C. A. Carter Box 972, Boh, Jdabo. SO 7t. FOR RENT Six room modern fr-J nfsbod houstf. Call 74 M. 11