THE ONTARIO ARGUS, ONTABIO, OREGON, TEURSDAT, DEC, 28. 1922
BUSINESS AND SECURITIES
DURING THE YEAR 1923
Wollesley Hills, Mass., December
SO, 1922. "What's going to hap
pen In 1923?"
That question Id uppermost In the
mlnils ol 1,000,000 American busi
nessmen and Investors who aro fac
ing the problem of making plans for
tho Now Year.
Signs are not clear and tho usual
barometers seem to contradict one
another.
In the faco of this general con
fusion we had best fall back on the
facts and figures. After a thoro
study of tho fundamental conditions
that govern our market, Roger W.
Babson today Issued a statement
which clears the air and furnishes
a basis of fact for your plans.
"We are now at a point in the busl
ness cycle," says Mr. Babson, "where
you can get almost as many differ
ent opinions as there aro business
men. Some are very bullish for the
coming year, and others cannot see
much hope for" business. The reas
on for such a situation is that we
are at present neither atthe top of
a boom nor at the depth of a depres
sion. If we wore at either1 of v these
extremes there woud be no question
of what tho next move would be.
As it is, we are about half way be
tween them.
."During the past i year United
States business has steadily ad
vanced until the average for the
) whole country is what we usually
call 'normal' business. Having ad
vanced thus far, shall we immedi
ately continue Into a great prosper
ity period or shal we go into nn
othex period of depression and poor
business as some predict?
"If you will only remember the
five years preceding 1921 and recall
what an enormous orgy of expansion
existed, you can see for yourself
that It will take some tlmo to get a
proper foundation for really good
business. We danced during those
years, and now wo must 'pay the
fiddler his complete bill. Business
has really been liko a convalescing
patient. Everything will go well
with tho patient If he does not try
to get out of bed too soon. If ho
tries to overdo he will have a re
lapse. We now have passed the
most painful part of the readjust
ment. The crisis is over, but a pro
cess of cost reduction and re-bal
ancing is necessary."
Price Spread is Wide
"Today a wide disparity exists
betwe'en prices of different com
modities.and particularly the spread
between producors' and consumers'
goods. This Is a brake on trade.
One half of the people cannot earn
enough to buy the goods that the
other half has to sell. There aro
one hundred and six million people
in tho United States and fifty per
cent of them get their living from
producing and distributing raw ma
terials. It has thus far been im
possible to reduce the prices of fin
ished consumer's goods to meel tho
cuts on these raw materials. Th
purchasing power of these people is
out of Its natural proportion.
"It is not entirely a matter of re
ducing wages, altho labor socts aro a
large factor, nor is it entirely a mat
tor of Inefficient management. No,
tho problem of high costs is not a
problem of any ono element; anl re
adjustment can come in only one
way drastic competition. All this
will take further time.
"Does this mean tliat there wll be
no opportunities in 1923? Not a
bit! Thero will be Just as many
chances to make money as In any
year you ever lived. It will be pos
sible for you to make as much dur
ing the next twelvo months as in
any year of your business life, but
it will not be along the lines which
made money in 1919 and 1920, or
in any other boom year. The pro
fits In 1923 will come by giving at
tention to detoails, by stopping tho
little leaks, by saving here and
there thru new labor-saving Inven
tions, and most of all, by devising
new and more economical means of
distributing goods. This was not
at all the stfUation during the busi
ness boom. Then the man who
stopped to prevent small leaks found
himself caught by the momentous
rise in prices and changes In gen
eral conditions.
"Those days have passed. They
were wild and merry whllo they last
ed. Now business has come back
to earth. In most industries, an
excessive producing capacity was
created. During the boom, over
head costs were lncreaased to keep
up with an abnormal turnover. To
day the amount of business has
dropped back moro nearly to nor
mal, but costs have not been propor
tionately reduced. Higher wages,
higher rents, more expensive sales
organization In fact, nearly every
Item of expense la out of proportion
with tho amount of business done.
"Instead of wild gyrations in the
commodity markets, the average
trend thruout the coming year havo really not started yet, but the
Bhould bo more of a sldewlse move- statistical position of tho metal is
ment. Some commodities are high
and others are very low, but the
majority at present aro about 15 por
cent above their levels a year ago.
A year from now wo shall probably
find them averaging at about the
same levels they stand today. In
between, there may bo a further
rally from tho low of 1922, and
agricultural products certainly will
do better."
Earnings Will Bo Higher
"Earnings," continued Mr. Bab-
scfii, "should average somewhat bet
ter than in tho year Just passed. A
survey of 100 leading industrial
onlycompanles, recently mado by
my organization, showed that in
1919, 96 per cent of theso companies
made a not profit, while only 4 per
cent showed a deficit. In 1921, the
number of firms which could show 'a
profit was cut down to 48 per cent.
Over half, or C2 per cent of theso
industrial concerns lost money on
their year's business. 1922 has wit
nessed a change from red ink fig
ures, but the amount of net profits
will not be largo when the books
are finally balanced. Wo aro Just
getting back .onto the right side of
the ledger.
"The shortago of labor Is one of
tho worst features of tho 1923 out
look. The moment that business
works up to average activity it be
comes impossible to get sufficient
workers. This raises costs and in
turnincreasesi commodity prices and
the cost of living. The immigration
law Is largely the cause of this
shortago. This law restricts the
number of immigrants In a single
year to 3 -per cent of tho total num
ber already in the United States.
Before the war we had an addition
of million immigrants a year. Now
we, aro receiving less than 300,000
and at least CO per cent of these are
women, children or other depen
dents. On the other hand, I doubt
If the repeal of this 3 per cent Im
migration law Is the proper solution
of tho present labor shortage.
"The real solution Is not the re
peal of the present Immigration law
but rather tho repeal of the Con
tract Labor Law for as long as the
3 per cent law remains In force.
This would make it possible for em
ployers to promise selected foreign
workers employment before eavlng
their own homes. Tho moment that
the immigration law is repealed
the Contract Labor Law can again
be applied.
"There should bo no great diffi
culty in getting ample supplies of
bituminous coal this winter. The
car shortage is diminishing some
what. Amplo supplies of bitumin
ous coal are being produced suggest
ing lower prices. Tho mischief of
this situation lies in the fact that It
will again be to the advantage of
both miners and operators to close
tho mines for a time. The diffi
culties which brought on tho strike
last year havo not boon settled.
There is serious danger of another
strike In the soft coal fields.
"Eeverybody Is worrying about the
political situation. There Is talk of
'radical legislation during the com
ing year. Most of this is merely
tho echo from campaign speeches.
It may bo a noisy year. Both tho
Conservatives and tho Radicals havo
a veto power, but neither is strong
enough to push thru any extreme
moasures of its own. Tho only
kind of legislation that will really
be enactod Is that which will appeal
to members of both groups. Al
ready tho Federal Reserve Board
has issued a ruling, admitting a
large amount of agricultural paper
for redlscountlng In the Federal Re
servo Banks. Tho Muscle Shoals
problem will probably bo settled,
olther by sao to onry Ford or by de
velopment on tho part of tho gov
ernment ltBelf. The Soldier's bonus
will probably be enacted, altho no
agreement as to tho terms or means
of raising tho money has yet bee,n
made. It is improbable that thero
will bo any Increase In tho amount
of business taxes.
"The political aspect has fright
ened many stockholders, but It Is
entirely too early to be worrlod.
Tho thing to watch Is fundamental
conditions. Wo are still in a re
adjustment period. This means
that sooner or later we shall work
toward bettor prosperity. It Is
truo that industrial stocks are much
higher than a year ago and are cer
tainly not the bargains that they
were. However, as I havo already
state, certain lines of- industry are
Just getting ready to go forword.
The Industrial market will be
spotty, but thero aro a great many
Issues that should do better In tho
coming year.
"The rail group Is, relatively, not
so far advanced as the Industrials.
I do not believe that rails should be
bought indiscriminately, but the rail
average will follow up tho general
market. I am more attracted to
the long-haul roads than to the
shorter lines. Tho motor truck is
a feeder for tho former but a com
petitor of the latter, Copper stocks
far better than it has been for somo
time. Coppers, certainly, oro sell
ing at bargain levels.
"Money conditions should con
tinue good. Thero is no question
that the banks aro In a strong posi
tion. Tho Federal Reservo Banks
today havo reserves equal to about
76 por cent of their noto nnd de
posit liabilities. Tho reserve de
qulred is between 35 per cent and
40 per cent. It is true, that when
foreign countries begin to get on
their feet, It will bo necessary to
send much of this gold back. For
the present, however, this gold re
presents the basis on which a con
siderable oxpansion of credit can be
built. It guarantees to us a rel
atively easy money rate, until heavy
gold exports aro resumed. During
the coming year, borrowers need
havo little fear of lack of funds for
all legitimate purposes, and this al
so applies to long-term money, that
is, capital for permanent invest
ment. Mortgage rates during 1923
should work lower. Today, tho av
erage rato of Veal estate mortgages
thruout the United States is between
6 and 7 per cent. The time Is not
far away when this averago will
stand between 5 and 6 per cent.
"Of course, tho ease of tho money
market is distinctly favorable to
long-time bonds. Thoro Is apolnt
In tho business cycle when industry
becomes so active tlmt money is aab
sorbed by trade. When this occurs
bonds are sold and develop a down
ward, tendency. This point In the
cycle has not yot appeared. More
over, history shows that following
tho Civil Ward bond prices, barring
temporrary fluctuations, roso for a
long period of yoars, the advance
culminating about 1900. Frpm this
point, a descent -was gradually made
to a low point at tho end of tho
European War. Since this low
point, history Is repeating itself,
bonds having reached a middle
ground, but still far below tho 3.80
or 4 per cent baslsi of tho 1900 per
iod. All these factors suggest that
'well selected bonds, both municipal
and corporation, are a distinct pur
shase. "Bonds money," concluded Mr.
Babson, "aro certainly sound fac
tors In the situation. As for busi
ness as a whole, there is no doubt
that it will average hotter this com
ing year than It did in 1922. This
does not mean that thero will be any
boom, but that there will be plenty
of money making opportunities for
those who know fundamental condi
tions."
General -business according to tho
index of tho Babsonchart stands at
only 2 per cent below normal, the
samo as a week ago.
Attention
Sheepmen
"See McFall and Soe Bettor"
DR. J. A. M'fAll
Eyesight Specialist, Ontario, Ore.
WB GRIND
OUR OWN
LENSES
I
Phon:U7J
I can save you
$2.50 per ton on
your hay with
Fordson Tractor
and Hay Grinder.
We take what
you save the first
year for pay.
V.B. STAPLES
Ford Garage
Holiday Rates
I
NOTICE TO CREDITORS
Notice is hereby given that the
underslgnod, has been appointed as
Administrator with Will Annexed
of the Estate of Elsie A. Fairchlld,
deceased, by the County Court of the
State'of Oregon for Malheur county.
All persons who may havo any
Claim against tho estate of the said
deceased aro hereby notified to pre
sent the same duly verified as by
Law required, to the undersigned at
my office in Ontario, Orogon, within
six months from the dato of the first
publication of this notice.
C. McQonagill,
Administrator of Estate of Elsie
A. Fairchlld, deceased, with Will
Annexed.
Date of first publication, Nov. 30,
1922.
Date of last publication, Dec. 28,
1922.
Between points on v
Oregon Short Line Railroad
December 22-23-24-25-29-30- 31
and January 1st
Limit January 3d
D. S, SPENCER
General Passenger Agent
SALT. LAKE CITY
Consult Local Agents
SUMMONS
IN THE CIRCUIT COURT OF THE
STATE OF OREGON FOR
MALHEUR COUNTY
FOR SALE Modern house, attrac
tive home close in. A bargain.
See W. L. Turner. 52tf.
Suitable for Bread, cake or lard
containers. Sugar Bowl.
. .SOUTHEAST UNIT DRAINAGE. .
DISTRICT
NOTICE OF ELECTION
NOTICE IS HEREBY GIVEN,
That a meeting of tho land owners
within the SOUTHEAST UNIT
DRAINAGE DISTRICT, In Mal
heur County, Oregon, Is hereby
called to meet at the residence of
C. W. Garrett, in Section 12, T. 18
S., R. 46 E...W. M., in said Dis
trict, on Saturday, the- 30th day of
December, 1922, at the hour of 2
o'clock P. M. for the purpose of
electing two supervisors for said
District, one to serve for the term
of two years and ono to serve for
tho term of threo years.
By order of the Board of Super
visors. Dated this 11th day of December,
1922..
O. E. CARMAN,
Secretary, Southeast Unit
Drainage District.
First publication Dec. 14, 1922.
Last publication Dec. 28, 1922.
NOTICE TO CREDITORS
IN THE COUNTY COURT OFTHE
STATE OF OREGON FOR
MALHEUR COUNTY
In The Matter of the Estate of
Herman Thomas Blerman, Deceased
Notice Is hereby given by Fran
ces Josephlno Blerman, administra
trix of the estate of Herman Thom
as Blerman, Deceased, to the credi
tors of, and all persons having
claims against, said estate, to pre
ont such claims, with 'the necessary
vouchers according to law, within
six months after the first publica
tion of this notice, to Frances Jose
phlno Blerman, administratrix of
the estate of Herman Thomas Bler
man, deceased, at the law offlco of
W. H. Brooke in Ontario, Oregon.
The first notice hereof is pub
lished this 14th day of December,
1922.
FRANCES JOSEPHINE BIERUAN,
Administratrix of the Estate of
Herman Thomas Blerman, De
ceased. Last publication Jan, 12, 1923.
RICHARD L. SCOTT, Plaintiff,
TS.
ELIZABETH JOHNSON. MAUD
CAMMANN, MONA CAMMANN.
FLORENCE BRASWELL. heirs
fit. law of Franklin Camman, de
ceased, and to tho heirs both
known and unknown of Eliza
Ellon Westfall, Defendants.
TO ELIZABETH JOHNSON AND TO
ALL OF THE HEIRS OF ELIZA
ELLEN WESTFALL, Deceased.
You and each of you are horoby
required to appear and answer the
complaint filed against you In the
above entitled court and cause, on
or bofore tho oxplratlon of the time
prescribed In the Order for Publi
cation, to-wit:
On or before the expiration of six
weeks from tho dato of the first
publication of this summons, and It
you fall to answer for want thereof,
plaintiff will apply to tho Court for
tho relief demanded in said com
plaint, to-wit: For a decree of this
court decreeing tho plaintiff to bo
tho owner of tho following described
real property.
Tho South half (S) of the
Southwest Quarter (SW). the
Northwest Quarter (NW) of tho
Southwost Quarter (SWU) of Sec.
18; Tho Northeast Quarter (NEtt)
of the Northwest Quarter (NWVi).
tho Northwest Quarter (NWU) of
the Southeast Quarter (SE), the
Southwost Quarter (SWU) of the
Northeast QuartortNE'i ), and the
Southeast Quarter (SHU) of the
Northwost Quarter (NWU) of Sec
tion 19; Tho Southwest Quarter
(SW4) and tho Southwest Quarter
of tho Southeast Quarter (SWU
SE) and that tract of land com
mencing at tho Southeast corner of
Section 19; running thonco North
on Section lino to Bully Crook;
thonco up tho bo'd of Bully Creok
to a point whore tho North lino of
the Southeast Quarter of tho South
east Quarter (SEKSEVi)of Section
19 crosses said Bully Creek; thence
West to tho Northwest corner of the
Southeast Quartor of tho Southeast
Quarter (SB4SEi) of Section 19;
thence South to the Soctlon line;
thenco East to tho place of begin
ning, containing 25 acres and the
whole of said land containing 225
acres, more or loss, all being In
Soctlon 19, Township 18, South,
Range 41 E. W. M Malheur Coun
ty, Oregon, together with tho ten
ements, hereditaments and appur
tenances thoreunto belonging, or In
anywise appertaining, Including all
wator rights: and fororer foreclos
ing and barring all their right, title,
and lntorest of defendant Elizabeth
Johnson and all of the heirs, botb
known and unknown of Eliza Ellen
Westfall, In and to said described
property, and for such other and
further relief as to the Court might
seem meet and equitable In the
premises.
This summons is published pur
suant to an order of tho Honorable
Dalton Biggs, Circuit Judge, made
and ontered on this 20th day of De
cember, 1922, tho first publication
thereof Is mado on the 21st day of
Decembor. 1922, and tho last pub
lication thereof, on tho 1st day of
Fob,, 1923.
P. J. GALLAGHER.
Attorney for plaintiff,
residing at Ontario, Oregon
Cause
m tobacco
and
Effect
m ivi
Lioobtt ft Mtkk Tobacco Cft
Mrs, Lott Johnson Is ,now pro
pared to do sowing at resldonco two
blocks north of wost-side schooL
Phono 87 M. 52 it
FOR SALE Two cars dry land ru
ral seed potatoes, field soloctod
and rogued $1.50 per 100. Ell
Keller, IUrU, Idaho, 52 Qt
FOR SALE 5 room shingle bunga-
' low with 4 lots and carafe. S
blocks north and 2 west ol Hlfi
school. Price $1001. Easy terns.
Write C. A. Carter Box 972, Boh,
Jdabo. SO 7t.
FOR RENT Six room modern fr-J
nfsbod houstf. Call 74 M. 11