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About Applegater. (Jacksonville, OR) 2008-current | View Entire Issue (May 1, 2011)
8 Spring 2011 Applegater TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS Five-dollar oil? BY RAunO PeRttu How Much Well Water Is Enough? with Bob Quinn Dear Bob Quinn: We’ve just purchased some land on which we plan to build the retirement house of our dreams. The adjacent land - owner tells me that we shouldn’t consider a well that will deliver less than 10 gallons of water a minute. Is this a hard and fast rule? The 10 gallon per minute is far from a hard & fast rule, but it is the common misconcep - tion. I’m looking at a printout from our computer for the Redwood Avenue area of Grants Pass that includes the flow rate for 25 properties in the area. The range is from 6 gal./minute to 60 gal./minute. The average household of four could be expected to use approximately 400 gallons of water per day. A 5-gallon per minute flow rate would yield more than 7,200 gallons per day, 2 GPM would provide 2880 GPD. Anything more would be a bonus for an out - side shower or similar use. If the 5-gallon per minute flow rate is of concern to a homeowner, there is always the alternative of establishing a holding tank. This works as added insurance against a po- sible season of severe drought that might reduce the flow rate somewhat. Would You Believe... 75% of the earth is covered with water. Bob Quinn is the owner of Quinn’s Well Drilling and Pump Service located at 6811 Williams Hwy. We provide well drilling, plus we install, maintain and repair complete water pumping systems. Contact our professional staff by phone, e-mail, or visit our office. quinnswell.com 541-862-9355 As I write this column, events on the other side of the world are making the news. Although these events are far from the Applegate, we may feel the fall- out. Libya’s long-time dictator Gadaffi, still holds out in Tripoli, but his rule may likely have ended before this Applegater is published. Egyptian President Mubarak has been removed by the military. Protests, unrest and local violence have exploded across the countries of North Africa and the Middle East. How many long-term dictatorships will fall over the coming months is uncertain, but more authoritar- ian governments are likely to fall. Those that don’t fall will scramble to make changes that might allow them to retain power, for now. These are historic changes. A friend who owns businesses in Africa told me that a change of govern- ment in Algeria, like Libya, was likely to be bloody. As we discussed the future of a half dozen regional dictatorships, it was clear that these events sweeping the region could profoundly impact us. Which countries have an overturn of government and who replaces those governments will be im- portant to us, even here in the Applegate. The first concern is who will replace these dictatorial governments. To us, it seems obvious that the protesters want a democratic voice in their new government. If you assume that a new government will be friendly to us, remember the adage of ESPN’s football commentators, “Not so fast, my friend!” The United States has not histori- cally supported movements to oust these authoritarian governments, and has actu- ally supported several dictatorships in the name of regional stability. We should not expect an automatic warm reception from the new leaders. We should likewise not be surprised if new authoritarian regimes replace those that are deposed. Modern history is filled with examples of dictatorships being replaced by new, possibly worse, dictator- ships. The obvious fear is that an extreme anti-western religious group will assume control, as happened in Iran. Although possible, an extremist theocracy appears unlikely in a country like Egypt, which has a history of tolerance and secularism. However, in a few key countries, notably Saudi Arabia, this fear may have some basis. The events in Libya have triggered crude oil price climbs that are being re- flected in our gasoline prices despite the fact that Libya only produces about two percent of the world’s oil supply, and Saudi Arabia has compensated for any temporary production decline in Libya. In contrast, Saudi Arabia produces about fifteen percent of the world’s oil supply. An uprising against the government in Saudi Arabia, and to a lesser extent, an uprising in the region’s other oil produc- ing countries, including Iran, would send oil prices soaring to new highs from fear and speculation. Real oil shortages could develop from hoarding, or from actual re- duced production. Five-dollar-per-gallon gasoline at your pump could happen in a heart-beat. The economic consequences the events in Libya have triggered crude oil price climbs that are be- ing reflected in our gasoline prices despite the fact that Libya only produces about two percent of the world’s oil supply, and Saudi Arabia has compensated for any temporary production decline in Libya. could plunge us into another, even deeper recession. Higher oil prices would quickly mean higher prices for many goods, includ- ing food, which is already inflating. A new recession coupled with spiraling inflation is not a happy thought, when we haven’t fully recovered from our recent downturn. On a positive note, this new oil- price-driven recession, should it occur, should also be short-lived. Oil sales form the core of many economies in the Middle East, and it is unlikely that any new oil- revenue-dependent government would allow oil flow to slow for very long. The new government would need the oil sales cash flow. There could be another longer-term positive to a crisis-driven oil price spike. Politicians have talked for a long time about advancing alternative sources of energy. After years of agreement that the country needs to develop alternatives to oil, little real progress has been made. A serious oil scare could accomplish more in speeding up the development of alternative energy sources than all the politicking of the past two decades. When people have to pay a large part of their living wage to keep the car running, they will initially demand lower oil prices. When they realize de- manding lower oil prices doesn’t make it so, they may be ready to seriously support energy alternatives. The dan- ger, of course, would be that as soon as oil prices start to decline again, the new alternative energy programs that spring from the crisis could go back onto the shelf. This happened with oil shale in Colorado and Utah years ago. Public opposition to or support of oil shale development had little to do with the eventual outcome. The rea- son oil shale almost became a reality, then quickly died was that the price of oil first spiked, making development of oil shale economic, then dropped again to make it unattractive. Rumors floated that the oil price drop was in part a move by OPEC producers to keep oil shale from being de- veloped, but these, again, were rumors. I had a bit of an inside seat to some of those events at the time and I didn’t completely dismiss the rumors. Recent history offers hope that if this new alternative energy scenario de- velops, it will not so quickly fade. Recent crude oil price rises were reflected in major jumps in gasoline prices at the pump. When crude oil pricess subsequently declined, the price at the pump didn’t appear to correct downward nearly as far. This means, if we have a new crude oil price spike and gas goes to five dollars or more per gallon, we should not expect those gas prices to decline to match sub- sequent future crude oil price declines. Furthermore it means that the economic incentive for continuing development of energy alternatives would remain, both from an economic basis and hopefully from public demand. Of course, until those alternative energy sources are available, we will remain the victims of this “What goes up doesn’t necessarily have to come down” game. These unfolding events in North Africa and the Middle East can have an impact on your planned driving vacation next summer, and even more importantly, on our economic recovery. Any new oil price spike that results from this turmoil can also be the driver that finally sparks us to serious alternative energy development. As you are watching these devel- opments on the other side of the world, remember you’re also a player, whether you like it or not. The Applegate is part of this increasingly intertwined world. If your trip to town suddenly costs more, you can also blame these events when you curse your oil company. Rauno Perttu • 541-899-8036 jrperttu@charter.net Williams Fire Department Support Group Annual Yard Sale/Fundraiser June 10-11 We have planned our sale for June 10 and 11 and will begin accepting donations Tuesday, April 5 and each following Saturday and Tuesday until June 7. Time for drop off is 10:00 am to 2:00 pm next to the fire station. Please do not leave items unattended. We are not accepting: Large appliances, computers, organs, pianos,TVs, holiday items, soiled mattresses, broken or not-working items. We can do special pickups for large items, if necessary ! Your support is greatly appreciated. For more information contact: Nancy Minetti at 541-846-6857 WFDSG or Liz at 541-846-0239.
