8 Spring 2011 Applegater
TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS
Five-dollar oil?
BY RAunO PeRttu
How Much
Well Water Is
Enough?
with Bob Quinn
Dear Bob Quinn:
We’ve just purchased some
land on which we plan to build
the retirement house of our
dreams. The adjacent land -
owner tells me that we shouldn’t
consider a well that will deliver
less than 10 gallons of water a
minute. Is this a hard and fast
rule?
The 10 gallon per minute is
far from a hard & fast rule, but
it is the common misconcep -
tion. I’m looking at a printout
from our computer for the
Redwood Avenue area of
Grants Pass that includes the
flow rate for 25 properties in
the area. The range is from
6 gal./minute to 60 gal./minute.
The average household of
four could be expected to use
approximately 400 gallons of
water per day. A 5-gallon per
minute flow rate would yield
more than 7,200 gallons per
day, 2 GPM would provide
2880 GPD. Anything more
would be a bonus for an out -
side shower or similar use.
If the 5-gallon per minute
flow rate is of concern to a
homeowner, there is always
the alternative of establishing
a holding tank. This works as
added insurance against a po-
sible season of
severe drought
that might
reduce the flow
rate somewhat.
Would You Believe...
75% of the earth is
covered with water.
Bob Quinn is the owner of Quinn’s
Well Drilling and Pump Service
located at 6811 Williams Hwy.
We provide well drilling, plus we
install, maintain and repair complete
water pumping systems. Contact our
professional staff by phone, e-mail, or
visit our office. quinnswell.com
541-862-9355
As I write this column, events on
the other side of the world are making
the news. Although these events are far
from the Applegate, we may feel the fall-
out. Libya’s long-time dictator Gadaffi,
still holds out in Tripoli, but his rule may
likely have ended before this Applegater is
published. Egyptian President Mubarak
has been removed by the military. Protests,
unrest and local violence have exploded
across the countries of North Africa and
the Middle East. How many long-term
dictatorships will fall over the coming
months is uncertain, but more authoritar-
ian governments are likely to fall. Those
that don’t fall will scramble to make
changes that might allow them to retain
power, for now. These are historic changes.
A friend who owns businesses in
Africa told me that a change of govern-
ment in Algeria, like Libya, was likely to be
bloody. As we discussed the future of a half
dozen regional dictatorships, it was clear
that these events sweeping the region could
profoundly impact us. Which countries
have an overturn of government and who
replaces those governments will be im-
portant to us, even here in the Applegate.
The first concern is who will replace
these dictatorial governments. To us, it
seems obvious that the protesters want a
democratic voice in their new government.
If you assume that a new government will
be friendly to us, remember the adage of
ESPN’s football commentators, “Not so
fast, my friend!”
The United States has not histori-
cally supported movements to oust these
authoritarian governments, and has actu-
ally supported several dictatorships in the
name of regional stability. We should not
expect an automatic warm reception from
the new leaders.
We should likewise not be surprised
if new authoritarian regimes replace those
that are deposed. Modern history is filled
with examples of dictatorships being
replaced by new, possibly worse, dictator-
ships. The obvious fear is that an extreme
anti-western religious group will assume
control, as happened in Iran. Although
possible, an extremist theocracy appears
unlikely in a country like Egypt, which
has a history of tolerance and secularism.
However, in a few key countries, notably
Saudi Arabia, this fear may have some basis.
The events in Libya have triggered
crude oil price climbs that are being re-
flected in our gasoline prices despite the
fact that Libya only produces about two
percent of the world’s oil supply, and
Saudi Arabia has compensated for any
temporary production decline in Libya.
In contrast, Saudi Arabia produces about
fifteen percent of the world’s oil supply.
An uprising against the government in
Saudi Arabia, and to a lesser extent, an
uprising in the region’s other oil produc-
ing countries, including Iran, would send
oil prices soaring to new highs from fear
and speculation. Real oil shortages could
develop from hoarding, or from actual re-
duced production. Five-dollar-per-gallon
gasoline at your pump could happen in a
heart-beat. The economic consequences
the events in Libya have triggered
crude oil price climbs that are be-
ing reflected in our gasoline prices
despite the fact that Libya only
produces about two percent of the
world’s oil supply, and Saudi Arabia
has compensated for any temporary
production decline in Libya.
could plunge us into another, even deeper
recession. Higher oil prices would quickly
mean higher prices for many goods, includ-
ing food, which is already inflating. A new
recession coupled with spiraling inflation
is not a happy thought, when we haven’t
fully recovered from our recent downturn.
On a positive note, this new oil-
price-driven recession, should it occur,
should also be short-lived. Oil sales form
the core of many economies in the Middle
East, and it is unlikely that any new oil-
revenue-dependent government would
allow oil flow to slow for very long. The
new government would need the oil sales
cash flow.
There could be another longer-term
positive to a crisis-driven oil price spike.
Politicians have talked for a long time about
advancing alternative sources of energy.
After years of agreement that the country
needs to develop alternatives to oil, little
real progress has been made. A serious oil
scare could accomplish more in speeding
up the development of alternative energy
sources than all the politicking of the past
two decades. When people have to pay a
large part of their living wage to keep the
car running, they will initially demand
lower oil prices. When they realize de-
manding lower oil prices doesn’t make it
so, they may be
ready to seriously
support energy
alternatives.
The dan-
ger, of course, would be that as soon as
oil prices start to decline again, the new
alternative energy programs that spring
from the crisis could go back onto the shelf.
This happened with oil shale in Colorado
and Utah years ago. Public opposition to or
support of oil shale development had little
to do with the eventual outcome. The rea-
son oil shale almost became a reality, then
quickly died was that the price of oil first
spiked, making development of oil shale
economic, then dropped again to make it
unattractive. Rumors floated that the oil
price drop was in part a move by OPEC
producers to keep oil shale from being de-
veloped, but these, again, were rumors. I
had a bit of an inside seat to some of those
events at the time and I didn’t completely
dismiss the rumors.
Recent history offers hope that if
this new alternative energy scenario de-
velops, it will not so quickly fade. Recent
crude oil price rises were reflected in major
jumps in gasoline prices at the pump.
When crude oil pricess subsequently
declined, the price at the pump didn’t
appear to correct downward nearly as
far. This means, if we have a new crude
oil price spike and gas goes to five dollars
or more per gallon, we should not expect
those gas prices to decline to match sub-
sequent future crude oil price declines.
Furthermore it means that the economic
incentive for continuing development of
energy alternatives would remain, both
from an economic basis and hopefully from
public demand. Of course, until those
alternative energy sources are available,
we will remain the victims of this “What
goes up doesn’t necessarily have to come
down” game.
These unfolding events in North
Africa and the Middle East can have an
impact on your planned driving vacation
next summer, and even more importantly,
on our economic recovery. Any new oil
price spike that results from this turmoil
can also be the driver that finally sparks us
to serious alternative energy development.
As you are watching these devel-
opments on the other side of the world,
remember you’re also a player, whether you
like it or not. The Applegate is part of this
increasingly intertwined world. If your trip
to town suddenly costs more, you can also
blame these events when you curse your
oil company.
Rauno Perttu • 541-899-8036
jrperttu@charter.net
Williams Fire Department Support Group
Annual Yard Sale/Fundraiser June 10-11
We have planned our sale for June 10 and 11 and will begin accepting
donations Tuesday, April 5 and each following Saturday and Tuesday until June
7. Time for drop off is 10:00 am to 2:00 pm next to the fire station. Please do
not leave items unattended.
We are not accepting: Large appliances, computers, organs, pianos,TVs,
holiday items, soiled mattresses, broken or not-working items. We can do special
pickups for large items, if necessary !
Your support is greatly appreciated.
For more information contact:
Nancy Minetti at 541-846-6857 WFDSG or Liz at 541-846-0239.
