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December 15, 2017 CapitalPress.com Subscribe to our weekly dairy or livestock email newsletter at CapitalPress.com/newsletters 11 Dairy/Livestock Cash dairy market breaks volume records By LEE MIELKE For the Capital Press C Carol Ryan Dumas/Capital Press Joel Packham, right, University of Idaho Extension educator for Cassia County, and Don Morishita, a University of Idaho weed scientist, line up presentations on a laptop during the Idaho Ag Outlook seminar in Burley on Dec. 6. Beef supply growing, demand strong By CAROL RYAN DUMAS Capital Press BURLEY, Idaho — The U.S. cattle in- ventory is growing and beef production is rising, but domestic and foreign demand are keeping the market in balance. The industry is in the building phase of the latest cattle cycle. The cattle inventory was 3 percent higher year-over-year on Jan. 1, 2016, and 2 percent higher at the start of 2017, Joel Packham, University of Idaho Extension educator for Cassia County, said during the university’s annual Idaho Ag Outlook seminar. “The beef industry is growing the beef herd in the U.S. and will continue to do so,” he said. At the first of the year, the beef cow inventory was 31.2 million head, up 3.5 percent year over year. That number is ex- pected to be up 700,000 head in 2018 and up 200,000 head in 2019 before flattening out, he said. The 2017 calf crop, at 36.2 million, is up 3.4 percent and is expected to grow to 37.7 million by 2019 before evening out. Producers have also continued to retain replacement heifers, increasing those num- bers to more than 6.4 million at the start of 2017, up 1.2 percent year over year. It all adds up to more cattle on feed, which stood at more than 11.3 million head on Nov. 1. Feedlots are keeping current in their marketing and slaughter weights are lower, so there’s not as much beef in feed- lots as one might think. But cattle on feed and beef production are rising and will con- tinue to do so, he said. Commercial beef production in the fourth quarter of 2017 is expected at about 6.7 billion pounds, compared with the aver- age for that time frame of about 6.3 billion pounds for 2012 through 2016. Beef production is expected to increase year over year in both 2018 and 2019 and is projected to reach 7.3 billion pounds in the third quarter of 2019. But consumption is also up and is ex- pected to increase, he said. Per capita beef consumption is up 2 percent in 2017 to 55.6 pounds, and it’s projected to rise 2.6 percent in 2018 to 58.1 pounds. The increase is due to rising U.S. median income, which increased 3 percent in 2016 and another 1 percent in 2017, he said. “We believe people have the ability to pay for beef and are willing to do that,” he said. But pork and poultry production are also on the rise, which could be a limiting factor for beef, he said. Beef exports are a bright spot and are taking care of a lot of the added beef pro- duction. Beef consumption in Japan is up 8 percent, and U.S. exports there are bene- fiting from tight supplies of Australian beef and high prices on that beef, he said. But some of that market will dry up when Aussie production recovers because of higher tariffs on U.S. beef, he said. Some Idaho milk producers lose contracts By CAROL RYAN DUMAS ME block Ched- dar fell to $1.47 per pound last Wednesday but closed Friday at $1.4750, down 8 3/4-cents on the week and the sixth consecutive week of decline, 23 1/2-cents below a year ago and 19 1/2-cents below the barrels. The barrels closed the week at $1.67, up 13 1/2-cents and 9 1/4-cents above a year ago, with 34 cars of block finding new homes last week and a whopping 56 of barrel. The blocks lost 1 3/4-cents Monday and 1 1/4-cents Tuesday, dipping to $1.4450, the lowest price since March 29, 2017. The barrels were un- changed Monday, despite 36 cars being sold, a record sin- gle-day volume since daily trading started Sept. 1, 1998, and eclipsing the previous high of 35 loads set June 18, 2010, according to FC Stone. They were also unchanged Tuesday but with a record December inversion of 22 1/2-cents above the blocks. Milk remains available for cheese production in the Midwest, according to Dairy Market News. Output is steady and not expected to slow until the holidays. Sales are steady to slower but the inverted prices remain a con- cern. Western cheesemakers report a lot of milk is avail- able and cheese production is active. Lower prices are gen- erating new interest in inter- national markets but cheese- makers are watching cheese and Class III milk futures closely. Cash butter fell to $2.19 per pound last Monday, then climbed back to $2.2375 Dairy Markets Lee Mielke Thursday, and closed Friday at $2.22, up a half-cent on the week and 15 1/2-cents above a year ago, with 60 cars sell- ing last week. Monday saw the butter down 3 cents but regained 1 3/4-cents Tuesday and inched back to $2.2075. Retail and food service orders in some cases were slower the previous two weeks. Others report steady to solid interest in both salted and unsalted product. Inven- tories are reportedly balanced but cream has become readily available. Western churning is less active in some areas despite long cream supplies. CME Grade A nonfat dry milk closed Friday at a record low 68 1/4-cents per pound, down 3 3/4-cents on the week and 29 cents below a year ago. It was unchanged Mon- day and inched a quarter-cent lower Tuesday to a new re- cord 68 cents per pound. Cheese report October cheese output to- taled 1.07 billion pounds, up 5.2 percent from September and 1.7 percent above Octo- ber 2016. Year to date output stands at 10.3 billion pounds, up 2.5 percent from a year ago. California produced just under 212 million pounds of that cheese, up 9.3 per- cent from September but 0.7 percent below a year ago. Wisconsin, at 287.5 million pounds, was up 5.9 percent from September and 2.8 percent above a year ago. H-B SYSTEM 2000 HORIZONTAL BALE CUTTING SAW The heavy duty, hydraulically powered horizontal Bale Reclaim system, with “Vertical cut positioning” Capital Press SALVAGE D BALES CONTAMINATE COST- QUICKLY AND EFFECTIVELY Carol Ryan Dumas/Capital Press File Cows feed at a dairy near Hansen, Idaho. Buyers in Idaho have notified some dairies that they will no longer buy their milk. tion per cow. Idaho is now at a point where increasing milk supply is forcing dairy farmers to sell off cows, he said. “We’re at the point to- day where milk production is far greater than our ability to process it during the peak months,” he said. There is not enough pro- cessing capacity for the milk in the state or even the Salt Lake City market, he said. The effects will be felt statewide. Affected produc- ers with single facilities will potentially call it quits com- pletely. Others with multiple facilities might idle one, he said. “It’s really unfortunate. It’s a situation we’ve never had where somebody wasn’t able to buy the milk,” he said. • The HB System 2000 comes complete with hydraulic cylinder and controls for powered cut depth adjustment through the cut. • Automatic bar oiler system is a standard feature on this unit. • This saw splits bales using an L-M DE-68 inch saw bar running .404 pitch chain designed for parallel cutting through any type of hay or straw. P.O. Box 905 • Sandy, OR 97055 Phone (503) 235-3146 - Fax (503) 235-3916 1-800-228-0793 Leasing available • Call for video 50-3/103 Some Idaho dairymen won’t be having the bright- est of holidays this year after buyers informed them they will no longer purchase their milk. The Idaho Dairymen’s As- sociation estimates the shift in supply contracts will see up- ward of 10,000 cows sold off in the next few months, said Rick Naerebout, the associa- tion’s CEO. The cause is an increase in milk supply and the inability of buyers to continue to move any oversupply to surround- ing states because of high costs. Buyers have done that in the past to balance markets during the peak production period of spring through fall, he said. The bottom line is that even without a significant increase in cow numbers, dairymen’s efficiency in turning feed to milk contin- ues to increase milk produc- Washington dairies to put face on next generation New ‘Dairy Grown’ series planned By DON JENKINS Capital Press The Dairy Farmers of Washington, seeking ways to uplift the industry’s image, will profile young men and women who grew up on dair- ies in stories to be posted on- line next year. The series, “Dairy Grown,” will introduce members of the industry’s upcoming genera- tion to consumers and may- be even industry critics, said Aleah Bright, Dairy Farmers’ communications coordinator. “That’s the hardest audi- ence, and it’s been the biggest challenge,” Bright said. “My hope is to make a connection between ag and growing great people.” The Dairy Farmers, an agricultural commission, is funded by assessments on milk producers. Its mission includes educating the pub- lic about dairies. The orga- nization this year hosted live Facebook videos featuring dairy farmers talking about their business and fielding questions. “Dairy Grown” will be an- other venture into social me- dia. Bright said she plans a half-dozen profiles of people under 30 years old. The series is scheduled to lead off Jan. 4 with a story on Oklahoma State University student Ashley Hanson, the third generation of a dairy farm family in Elk, an un- incorporated community in Spokane County. “I think the potential is to put a face on who we are,” said Bright, who belonged to 4-H while growing up in Monroe and graduated a year ago from Northwest Universi- ty in Kirkland. “I’m passion- ate about telling the stories of our Washington kids.” 50-2/102