December 15, 2017
CapitalPress.com
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11
Dairy/Livestock
Cash dairy market
breaks volume records
By LEE MIELKE
For the Capital Press
C
Carol Ryan Dumas/Capital Press
Joel Packham, right, University of Idaho Extension educator for Cassia County, and Don Morishita, a University of Idaho weed scientist,
line up presentations on a laptop during the Idaho Ag Outlook seminar in Burley on Dec. 6.
Beef supply growing, demand strong
By CAROL RYAN DUMAS
Capital Press
BURLEY, Idaho — The U.S. cattle in-
ventory is growing and beef production is
rising, but domestic and foreign demand
are keeping the market in balance.
The industry is in the building phase of
the latest cattle cycle. The cattle inventory
was 3 percent higher year-over-year on Jan.
1, 2016, and 2 percent higher at the start of
2017, Joel Packham, University of Idaho
Extension educator for Cassia County, said
during the university’s annual Idaho Ag
Outlook seminar.
“The beef industry is growing the beef
herd in the U.S. and will continue to do so,”
he said.
At the first of the year, the beef cow
inventory was 31.2 million head, up 3.5
percent year over year. That number is ex-
pected to be up 700,000 head in 2018 and
up 200,000 head in 2019 before flattening
out, he said.
The 2017 calf crop, at 36.2 million, is up
3.4 percent and is expected to grow to 37.7
million by 2019 before evening out.
Producers have also continued to retain
replacement heifers, increasing those num-
bers to more than 6.4 million at the start of
2017, up 1.2 percent year over year.
It all adds up to more cattle on feed,
which stood at more than 11.3 million head
on Nov. 1. Feedlots are keeping current in
their marketing and slaughter weights are
lower, so there’s not as much beef in feed-
lots as one might think. But cattle on feed
and beef production are rising and will con-
tinue to do so, he said.
Commercial beef production in the
fourth quarter of 2017 is expected at about
6.7 billion pounds, compared with the aver-
age for that time frame of about 6.3 billion
pounds for 2012 through 2016.
Beef production is expected to increase
year over year in both 2018 and 2019 and is
projected to reach 7.3 billion pounds in the
third quarter of 2019.
But consumption is also up and is ex-
pected to increase, he said.
Per capita beef consumption is up 2
percent in 2017 to 55.6 pounds, and it’s
projected to rise 2.6 percent in 2018 to 58.1
pounds. The increase is due to rising U.S.
median income, which increased 3 percent
in 2016 and another 1 percent in 2017, he
said.
“We believe people have the ability to
pay for beef and are willing to do that,” he
said.
But pork and poultry production are
also on the rise, which could be a limiting
factor for beef, he said.
Beef exports are a bright spot and are
taking care of a lot of the added beef pro-
duction. Beef consumption in Japan is up
8 percent, and U.S. exports there are bene-
fiting from tight supplies of Australian beef
and high prices on that beef, he said.
But some of that market will dry up
when Aussie production recovers because
of higher tariffs on U.S. beef, he said.
Some Idaho milk producers lose contracts
By CAROL RYAN DUMAS
ME block Ched-
dar fell to $1.47 per
pound last Wednesday
but closed Friday at $1.4750,
down 8 3/4-cents on the week
and the sixth consecutive
week of decline, 23 1/2-cents
below a year ago and 19
1/2-cents below the barrels.
The barrels closed the
week at $1.67, up 13 1/2-cents
and 9 1/4-cents above a year
ago, with 34 cars of block
finding new homes last week
and a whopping 56 of barrel.
The blocks lost 1 3/4-cents
Monday and 1 1/4-cents
Tuesday, dipping to $1.4450,
the lowest price since March
29, 2017.
The barrels were un-
changed Monday, despite 36
cars being sold, a record sin-
gle-day volume since daily
trading started Sept. 1, 1998,
and eclipsing the previous
high of 35 loads set June 18,
2010, according to FC Stone.
They were also unchanged
Tuesday but with a record
December inversion of
22 1/2-cents above the blocks.
Milk remains available
for cheese production in the
Midwest, according to Dairy
Market News. Output is
steady and not expected to
slow until the holidays. Sales
are steady to slower but the
inverted prices remain a con-
cern.
Western cheesemakers
report a lot of milk is avail-
able and cheese production is
active. Lower prices are gen-
erating new interest in inter-
national markets but cheese-
makers are watching cheese
and Class III milk futures
closely.
Cash butter fell to $2.19
per pound last Monday, then
climbed back to $2.2375
Dairy
Markets
Lee Mielke
Thursday, and closed Friday
at $2.22, up a half-cent on the
week and 15 1/2-cents above
a year ago, with 60 cars sell-
ing last week.
Monday saw the butter
down 3 cents but regained
1 3/4-cents Tuesday and
inched back to $2.2075.
Retail and food service
orders in some cases were
slower the previous two
weeks. Others report steady
to solid interest in both salted
and unsalted product. Inven-
tories are reportedly balanced
but cream has become readily
available.
Western churning is less
active in some areas despite
long cream supplies.
CME Grade A nonfat dry
milk closed Friday at a record
low 68 1/4-cents per pound,
down 3 3/4-cents on the week
and 29 cents below a year
ago.
It was unchanged Mon-
day and inched a quarter-cent
lower Tuesday to a new re-
cord 68 cents per pound.
Cheese report
October cheese output to-
taled 1.07 billion pounds, up
5.2 percent from September
and 1.7 percent above Octo-
ber 2016. Year to date output
stands at 10.3 billion pounds,
up 2.5 percent from a year ago.
California produced just
under 212 million pounds
of that cheese, up 9.3 per-
cent from September but 0.7
percent below a year ago.
Wisconsin, at 287.5 million
pounds, was up 5.9 percent
from September and 2.8
percent above a year ago.
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Cows feed at a dairy near Hansen, Idaho. Buyers in Idaho have
notified some dairies that they will no longer buy their milk.
tion per cow. Idaho is now
at a point where increasing
milk supply is forcing dairy
farmers to sell off cows, he
said.
“We’re at the point to-
day where milk production
is far greater than our ability
to process it during the peak
months,” he said.
There is not enough pro-
cessing capacity for the milk
in the state or even the Salt
Lake City market, he said.
The effects will be felt
statewide. Affected produc-
ers with single facilities will
potentially call it quits com-
pletely. Others with multiple
facilities might idle one, he
said.
“It’s really unfortunate. It’s
a situation we’ve never had
where somebody wasn’t able
to buy the milk,” he said.
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Some Idaho dairymen
won’t be having the bright-
est of holidays this year after
buyers informed them they
will no longer purchase their
milk.
The Idaho Dairymen’s As-
sociation estimates the shift in
supply contracts will see up-
ward of 10,000 cows sold off
in the next few months, said
Rick Naerebout, the associa-
tion’s CEO.
The cause is an increase in
milk supply and the inability
of buyers to continue to move
any oversupply to surround-
ing states because of high
costs. Buyers have done that
in the past to balance markets
during the peak production
period of spring through fall,
he said.
The bottom line is that
even without a significant
increase in cow numbers,
dairymen’s efficiency in
turning feed to milk contin-
ues to increase milk produc-
Washington dairies to put
face on next generation
New ‘Dairy Grown’
series planned
By DON JENKINS
Capital Press
The Dairy Farmers of
Washington, seeking ways to
uplift the industry’s image,
will profile young men and
women who grew up on dair-
ies in stories to be posted on-
line next year.
The series, “Dairy Grown,”
will introduce members of the
industry’s upcoming genera-
tion to consumers and may-
be even industry critics, said
Aleah Bright, Dairy Farmers’
communications coordinator.
“That’s the hardest audi-
ence, and it’s been the biggest
challenge,” Bright said. “My
hope is to make a connection
between ag and growing great
people.”
The Dairy Farmers, an
agricultural commission, is
funded by assessments on
milk producers. Its mission
includes educating the pub-
lic about dairies. The orga-
nization this year hosted live
Facebook videos featuring
dairy farmers talking about
their business and fielding
questions.
“Dairy Grown” will be an-
other venture into social me-
dia. Bright said she plans a
half-dozen profiles of people
under 30 years old.
The series is scheduled to
lead off Jan. 4 with a story on
Oklahoma State University
student Ashley Hanson, the
third generation of a dairy
farm family in Elk, an un-
incorporated community in
Spokane County.
“I think the potential is to
put a face on who we are,”
said Bright, who belonged
to 4-H while growing up in
Monroe and graduated a year
ago from Northwest Universi-
ty in Kirkland. “I’m passion-
ate about telling the stories of
our Washington kids.”
50-2/102