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November 10, 2017 CapitalPress.com Models predict Western U.S. snowpack in decline The National Climate Assessment projected future snowpacks for Western mountain ranges under a high-emissions scenario. Area/ mountain range Snow water equivalent (% change) 2050 2100 Snow cover (% change) 2050 2100 Snowfall (% change) 2050 2100 Cascades -41.5 -89.9 -21.6 -72.9 -10.7 Klamath -50.8 -95.8 -38.6 -89 -23.1 -78.7 1.4 6.3 Rockies -17.3 -65.1 -8.2 -43.1 1.7 -8.2 2.5 9.9 Sierra Nevada -21.8 -21.9 -77.7 -4.7 -66.6 2 8.1 Wasatch/Unita -18.9 -78.7 -14.2 -61.4 4.1 -34.6 3.2 11 Western U.S. -22.3 -70.1 -12.7 -51.5 -1.6 -21.4 2.3 9.4 Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program -89 *Degrees Fahrenheit -50 Surface temperature (change in F*) 2050 2100 1.6 7.4 Capital Press graphic U.S. climate report forecasts shrinking snowpacks Winter of 2015 said to be ‘harbinger’ By DON JENKINS Capital Press Snowpacks in Oregon, Idaho, Washington and Cal- ifornia are expected to be much smaller by mid-century if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, according to federal projections released Nov. 3. The Fourth National Cli- mate Assessment, completed once every four years, asserts that the mild winter of 2014- 15 may have foreshadowed the future. “As a harbinger, the un- usually low Western U.S. snowpack of 2015 may be- come the norm,” according to the report. The highly anticipated assessment, written by gov- ernment and university sci- entists, reports that average temperatures globally and in the U.S. have risen by 1.8 de- grees since 1885. The report concludes that it’s “extreme- ly likely” human-released greenhouse gases are the main cause. In the Northwest — Ore- gon, Idaho and Washington — average temperatures are projected to rise by mid-cen- tury by 3.66 to 4.67 degrees, depending on different levels of carbon emissions. Tem- peratures in California and five other southwest states are Marsh succeeds Gasperini at NCAE Washington Department of Ecology This June 6, 2015, photo shows a snow-free 5,478-foot Bogachiel Peak in the Olympic Mountains. The National Climate Assessment said the low snowpack of 2015 could have been a peek at the future. projected to rise by 3.72 to 4.80 degrees. The warming is projected to continue in the latter half of the century, with average tem- peratures in the West expected to be about 8.5 degrees higher than current norms by 2100. The low snowpack of 2015 preceded one of Washing- ton’s most severe droughts. The warm winter was caused by natural forces, not hu- man-caused climate change, but Washington State Clima- tologist Nick Bond said the odds of such winters occur- ring will increase as baseline temperatures rise. “It wasn’t global warming, but it was a dress rehearsal for it,” he said. “We know the times they are a-changing, and they already have to a certain extent.” As winter temperatures in- crease, the percentage of pre- cipitation that falls as snow will decrease. The snow that does stick will melt earlier in the spring, potentially dis- rupting water-management practices, according to the as- sessment. In a high-emissions sce- nario, the average winter snowpack in the Cascades will have 41 percent less wa- ter by 2050 and 90 percent less by 2100. The Sierra Ne- vada, Klamath and Wasatch mountains are projected to have similar declines in snowpacks. Precipitation is projected to increase in some places but decrease in other places. The northern U.S. is expected to have more precipitation in the winter and spring, according to the assessment. “If we use our resources wisely, I could imagine for at least awhile, we’ll have enough water to get by,” Bond said. Tiny Burnt River School shines at national FFA convention By ALIYA HALL Capital Press UNION, Ore. — Shel- by Swindlehurst was one of the first to join Burnt River School’s FFA chapter when she was a sophomore at the high school. Now a sopho- more at Eastern Oregon Uni- versity studying agricultural sciences, she was awarded one of the organization’s top honors, the American De- gree, at this year’s FFA na- tional convention. The degree is awarded to FFA members who have “demonstrated the high- est level of commitment to FFA and made significant accomplishments in their su- pervised agricultural experi- ences,” according to the FFA website. Less than 1 percent of members are awarded the degree each year. “At first I didn’t realize how big it really was be- cause I’ve never been around anyone who had it,” she said. “Same with my advisor, but she knew it was a big deal. This year when I went to na- tionals, it was an eye-opener about how big an accom- plishment it was.” Swindlehurst is the first in the Burnt River School Dis- trict to receive the award. Among the requirements for the American Degree are: receiving the State FFA Degree, being an active member for the past three years, having completed three years of systematic secondary school instruction in an agricultural education program, having graduated from high school, maintain- ing records to substantiate an outstanding supervised agricultural experience, earning at least $10,000 and productively investing $7,500 and having partici- pated in at least 50 hours of community service. Along with Swindlehurst, seven other students from Courtesy of Jessica Wilson From left, Stran Siddoway, Tim Barabas, Tyler Belveal, Noah Ray, Gustavo Ferrareto, Shea Swindlehurst, Shayla Winton, Shelby Swindlehurst and Jessica Wilson at the FFA convention. Barabas and Ferrareto placed ninth in the agriscience competi- tion and Shelby Swindlehurst received the American Degree. Burnt River participated at the convention. Shayla Win- ton, Noah Ray, Stran Sid- doway, Shea Swindlehurst and Tyler Belveal went for the experience, and Gustavo Ferrareto and Tim Barabas competed. Ferrareto and Barabas were exchange students from Brazil and Germany, respec- tively. Their Agriscience project compared 13 coun- tries’ agricultural knowl- edge. “I didn’t believe when Mrs. Wilson sent me the message telling me that we made it to nationals,” Fer- rareto said. “It was an in- credible thing for Tim and I, the first people from Burnt River in FFA Nationals con- vention. Being exchange stu- dents made us feel a lot more special because we had the feeling that we did awesome even being against American high school students.” The results of their proj- ect showed that agricultural knowledge in urban areas of the countries were “not outstanding at all,” Barabas said. The most surprising find: the U.S. ranked last in the overall average scores. “Even in a country with an extremely effective agri- cultural education with FFA and subjects like animal sci- ence, ag mechanics, ag busi- ness and plant science, urban areas have a huge problem,” Barabas said. “In our opin- ion, the lack of agricultural knowledge is an interna- tional problem, which can be solved even better by the cooperation of nations.” Ferrareto and Barabas placed ninth at the conven- tion. Although Burnt River High School, about 40 miles southwest of Baker City, Ore., has only 19 students enrolled at the high school, 17 of them are involved in FFA. Jessica Wilson, FFA advisor for the school dis- trict, said that half of the population is exchange stu- dents from around the urban U.S. and abroad. “It’s an opportunity we have that’s available,” she said. “I’d like it if we could get more kids to come to the school, kids that want to be in ag and experience life in the West.” Rory and Krystal Swindlehurst offer lodging for exchange students at the Burnt River Integrated Ag- riculture Research Ranch (BRIARR). Krystal Swindle- hurst said she hopes that it helps the school grow. “At our state conven- tion almost every kid in our group was up there com- peting against schools with three thousand kids,” she said. “I just think it shows that as a group they’re very committed.” John Deere Dealers See one of these dealers for a demonstration By DAN WHEAT Capital Press Michael Marsh, a con- sultant and former CEO of Western United Dairymen, is succeeding Frank Gasperini Jr. as chief executive of the National Council of Agricul- tural Employers in Washing- ton, D.C. Marsh, 59, is a certified public accountant and has been a consultant in financial transactions, litigation sup- port and media and public re- lations since December 2014. Before that, he was CEO of Western United Dairymen for 15 years, following seven years as director of finance and administration with the Almond Board of Califor- nia. Both organizations are in Modesto, Calif. Marsh is a graduate of the University of Wyoming with degrees in ac- counting and history. “Michael has the talents to drive NCAE forward through a very tough environment for agricultural employers,” said Joe Young, NCAE board chairman of Goffstown, N.H. Marsh has a “sterling re- sults-oriented reputation” and the “vision and collaborative approach” needed, said Jon DeVaney, NCAE vice chair- man and president of the Washington State Tree Fruit Association. Marsh became NCAE president and CEO on Oct. 31. Gasperini, 66, will contin- ue as executive vice president until Dec. 31. “He is president. My job, at this point, is to assure his success,” Gasperini said. Gasperini has led NCAE since September 2008 and previously held sales, market- ing and professional positions in agricultural industries. 7 45-3/102