November 10, 2017
CapitalPress.com
Models predict Western U.S. snowpack in decline
The National Climate Assessment projected future snowpacks for Western mountain
ranges under a high-emissions scenario.
Area/
mountain
range
Snow water
equivalent
(% change)
2050 2100
Snow cover
(% change)
2050 2100
Snowfall
(% change)
2050 2100
Cascades
-41.5 -89.9
-21.6 -72.9
-10.7
Klamath
-50.8 -95.8
-38.6
-89
-23.1 -78.7
1.4
6.3
Rockies
-17.3 -65.1
-8.2
-43.1
1.7
-8.2
2.5
9.9
Sierra Nevada
-21.8
-21.9 -77.7
-4.7
-66.6
2
8.1
Wasatch/Unita
-18.9 -78.7
-14.2 -61.4
4.1
-34.6
3.2
11
Western U.S.
-22.3 -70.1
-12.7 -51.5
-1.6
-21.4
2.3
9.4
Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program
-89
*Degrees Fahrenheit
-50
Surface
temperature
(change in F*)
2050 2100
1.6
7.4
Capital Press graphic
U.S. climate report forecasts shrinking snowpacks
Winter of 2015 said
to be ‘harbinger’
By DON JENKINS
Capital Press
Snowpacks in Oregon,
Idaho, Washington and Cal-
ifornia are expected to be
much smaller by mid-century
if greenhouse gas emissions
continue to rise, according to
federal projections released
Nov. 3.
The Fourth National Cli-
mate Assessment, completed
once every four years, asserts
that the mild winter of 2014-
15 may have foreshadowed
the future.
“As a harbinger, the un-
usually low Western U.S.
snowpack of 2015 may be-
come the norm,” according to
the report.
The highly anticipated
assessment, written by gov-
ernment and university sci-
entists, reports that average
temperatures globally and in
the U.S. have risen by 1.8 de-
grees since 1885. The report
concludes that it’s “extreme-
ly likely” human-released
greenhouse gases are the main
cause.
In the Northwest — Ore-
gon, Idaho and Washington
— average temperatures are
projected to rise by mid-cen-
tury by 3.66 to 4.67 degrees,
depending on different levels
of carbon emissions. Tem-
peratures in California and
five other southwest states are
Marsh
succeeds
Gasperini
at NCAE
Washington Department of Ecology
This June 6, 2015, photo shows a snow-free 5,478-foot Bogachiel
Peak in the Olympic Mountains. The National Climate Assessment
said the low snowpack of 2015 could have been a peek at the future.
projected to rise by 3.72 to
4.80 degrees.
The warming is projected
to continue in the latter half of
the century, with average tem-
peratures in the West expected
to be about 8.5 degrees higher
than current norms by 2100.
The low snowpack of 2015
preceded one of Washing-
ton’s most severe droughts.
The warm winter was caused
by natural forces, not hu-
man-caused climate change,
but Washington State Clima-
tologist Nick Bond said the
odds of such winters occur-
ring will increase as baseline
temperatures rise.
“It wasn’t global warming,
but it was a dress rehearsal
for it,” he said. “We know the
times they are a-changing,
and they already have to a
certain extent.”
As winter temperatures in-
crease, the percentage of pre-
cipitation that falls as snow
will decrease. The snow that
does stick will melt earlier
in the spring, potentially dis-
rupting water-management
practices, according to the as-
sessment.
In a high-emissions sce-
nario, the average winter
snowpack in the Cascades
will have 41 percent less wa-
ter by 2050 and 90 percent
less by 2100. The Sierra Ne-
vada, Klamath and Wasatch
mountains are projected
to have similar declines in
snowpacks.
Precipitation is projected
to increase in some places but
decrease in other places. The
northern U.S. is expected to
have more precipitation in the
winter and spring, according
to the assessment.
“If we use our resources
wisely, I could imagine for
at least awhile, we’ll have
enough water to get by,” Bond
said.
Tiny Burnt River School shines
at national FFA convention
By ALIYA HALL
Capital Press
UNION, Ore. — Shel-
by Swindlehurst was one of
the first to join Burnt River
School’s FFA chapter when
she was a sophomore at the
high school. Now a sopho-
more at Eastern Oregon Uni-
versity studying agricultural
sciences, she was awarded
one of the organization’s top
honors, the American De-
gree, at this year’s FFA na-
tional convention.
The degree is awarded
to FFA members who have
“demonstrated the high-
est level of commitment to
FFA and made significant
accomplishments in their su-
pervised agricultural experi-
ences,” according to the FFA
website.
Less than 1 percent of
members are awarded the
degree each year.
“At first I didn’t realize
how big it really was be-
cause I’ve never been around
anyone who had it,” she said.
“Same with my advisor, but
she knew it was a big deal.
This year when I went to na-
tionals, it was an eye-opener
about how big an accom-
plishment it was.”
Swindlehurst is the first in
the Burnt River School Dis-
trict to receive the award.
Among the requirements
for the American Degree
are: receiving the State FFA
Degree, being an active
member for the past three
years, having completed
three years of systematic
secondary school instruction
in an agricultural education
program, having graduated
from high school, maintain-
ing records to substantiate
an outstanding supervised
agricultural
experience,
earning at least $10,000
and productively investing
$7,500 and having partici-
pated in at least 50 hours of
community service.
Along with Swindlehurst,
seven other students from
Courtesy of Jessica Wilson
From left, Stran Siddoway, Tim Barabas, Tyler Belveal, Noah
Ray, Gustavo Ferrareto, Shea Swindlehurst, Shayla Winton,
Shelby Swindlehurst and Jessica Wilson at the FFA convention.
Barabas and Ferrareto placed ninth in the agriscience competi-
tion and Shelby Swindlehurst received the American Degree.
Burnt River participated at
the convention. Shayla Win-
ton, Noah Ray, Stran Sid-
doway, Shea Swindlehurst
and Tyler Belveal went for
the experience, and Gustavo
Ferrareto and Tim Barabas
competed.
Ferrareto and Barabas
were exchange students from
Brazil and Germany, respec-
tively. Their Agriscience
project compared 13 coun-
tries’ agricultural knowl-
edge.
“I didn’t believe when
Mrs. Wilson sent me the
message telling me that we
made it to nationals,” Fer-
rareto said. “It was an in-
credible thing for Tim and I,
the first people from Burnt
River in FFA Nationals con-
vention. Being exchange stu-
dents made us feel a lot more
special because we had the
feeling that we did awesome
even being against American
high school students.”
The results of their proj-
ect showed that agricultural
knowledge in urban areas
of the countries were “not
outstanding at all,” Barabas
said. The most surprising
find: the U.S. ranked last in
the overall average scores.
“Even in a country with
an extremely effective agri-
cultural education with FFA
and subjects like animal sci-
ence, ag mechanics, ag busi-
ness and plant science, urban
areas have a huge problem,”
Barabas said. “In our opin-
ion, the lack of agricultural
knowledge is an interna-
tional problem, which can
be solved even better by the
cooperation of nations.”
Ferrareto and Barabas
placed ninth at the conven-
tion.
Although Burnt River
High School, about 40 miles
southwest of Baker City,
Ore., has only 19 students
enrolled at the high school,
17 of them are involved in
FFA. Jessica Wilson, FFA
advisor for the school dis-
trict, said that half of the
population is exchange stu-
dents from around the urban
U.S. and abroad.
“It’s an opportunity we
have that’s available,” she
said. “I’d like it if we could
get more kids to come to the
school, kids that want to be
in ag and experience life in
the West.”
Rory
and
Krystal
Swindlehurst offer lodging
for exchange students at the
Burnt River Integrated Ag-
riculture Research Ranch
(BRIARR). Krystal Swindle-
hurst said she hopes that it
helps the school grow.
“At our state conven-
tion almost every kid in our
group was up there com-
peting against schools with
three thousand kids,” she
said. “I just think it shows
that as a group they’re very
committed.”
John Deere Dealers
See one of these dealers for a demonstration
By DAN WHEAT
Capital Press
Michael Marsh, a con-
sultant and former CEO of
Western United Dairymen, is
succeeding Frank Gasperini
Jr. as chief executive of the
National Council of Agricul-
tural Employers in Washing-
ton, D.C.
Marsh, 59, is a certified
public accountant and has
been a consultant in financial
transactions, litigation sup-
port and media and public re-
lations since December 2014.
Before that, he was CEO of
Western United Dairymen
for 15 years, following seven
years as director of finance
and administration with the
Almond Board of Califor-
nia. Both organizations are
in Modesto, Calif. Marsh is a
graduate of the University of
Wyoming with degrees in ac-
counting and history.
“Michael has the talents to
drive NCAE forward through
a very tough environment
for agricultural employers,”
said Joe Young, NCAE board
chairman of Goffstown, N.H.
Marsh has a “sterling re-
sults-oriented reputation” and
the “vision and collaborative
approach” needed, said Jon
DeVaney, NCAE vice chair-
man and president of the
Washington State Tree Fruit
Association.
Marsh became NCAE
president and CEO on Oct.
31. Gasperini, 66, will contin-
ue as executive vice president
until Dec. 31.
“He is president. My job,
at this point, is to assure his
success,” Gasperini said.
Gasperini has led NCAE
since September 2008 and
previously held sales, market-
ing and professional positions
in agricultural industries.
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