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4 CapitalPress.com March 17, 2017 USDA supply and demand report a ‘wash’ for wheat prices By MATTHEW WEAVER Capital Press U.S. wheat acres harvested The USDA estimates less U.S. wheat production this year but more production worldwide. That won’t send wheat prices higher anytime soon, market experts say. The USDA World Agri- cultural Supply and Demand Estimates report found a total U.S. wheat sup- ply of 92.5 million metric tons, up 16.2 percent from 79.7 million metric tons in 2016. Global production pro- jections increased from February’s estimate by 2.8 million tons to 751.1 million tons due to larg- er crops in Argentina and Australia. Total world supply is 991.4 million metric tons, up 4.1 percent from 952.8 million metric tons in 2016. “We still have a cum- bersome supply, projecting over a billion bushels,” said Darin Newsom, senior an- alyst for DTN in Omaha, Neb. “It’s mostly a wash in the wheat market, given the abundance of wheat avail- able.” The season average (Millions of acres) 43.9 million: Down 7.2% from 2015 56 51 49.8 46.8 46.9 45.7 48.8 45.3 46.4 47.3 ’12 ’14 Source: USDA NASS Alan Kenaga/Capital Press 2006 ’08 ’10 World wheat supply (Millions of metric tons) *Estimate **March projection Source: USDA Capital Press graphic 952.8 923.2 991.4 Up 4.1% from 2015- 2016 Capital Press File A new USDA supply and demand report indicates the worldwide wheat supply will remain stable, with less U.S. production and more in the southern hemisphere. wheat price for U.S. grow- ers remains at $3.85 per bushel from February. Soft white winter wheat ranged from $4.50 to $4.65 per bushel this week on the Portland market. “This was about the most boring USDA re- port we’ve ever had,” Dan Steiner, grain merchant at Morrow County Grain 2014-15 2015-16* 2016-17** Growers in Boardman, Ore. “Which is good: The mar- ket was well-anticipated. 2016 There simply wasn’t any surprise.” Marketers will begin looking at weather reports, which will impact the di- rection of wheat prices, said Byron Behne, market- ing manager for Northwest Grain Growers in Walla Walla, Wash. “If the Southern Plains continues to be hot and dry, the market will start to take notice of that at some point,” Behne said. “Weath- er scares somewhere in the Northern Hemisphere over the next few months will probably provide some sell- ing opportunities at some point.” Wheat farmers seek ways to wait out low prices Gala prices fall as marketers Capital Press Mark Sheffels doesn’t plant as much wheat as he once did. Sheffels, who farms west of Spokane near Davenport and Wilbur, Wash., started reducing his wheat acreage several years ago in favor of winter peas. He made the move be- cause of low wheat prices Matthew Weaver/Capital Press and the high costs of raising Mark Sheffels stands in a winter pea fi eld near Davenport, Wash., it. “Even when markets sug- in May 2016. Sheffels says switching to peas from spring crops gest we ought to do some- has helped him reduce costs and remain profi table. thing else, agronomically it’s pretty hard to fi nd replace- do,” Cochran said. “We’re between $4.50 and $4.65 per ments,” Sheffels said. “But wheat farmers.” bushel this week. The ex- we’re getting there, little by Growers have reacted in a port price is typically 60 to little.” variety of ways, from switch- 80 cents lower than that, be- Colfax, Wash., grower ing to new primary crops to cause farmers have to pay to Larry Cochran spreads his diversifying what they raise, get the wheat to Portland to risk by planting alternative as they look for ways to wait ship it overseas. crops, including dry peas, out wheat prices that are low- “That’s why you hear guys lentils, chickpeas and barley. er than the cost of produc- saying they’re at $4 wheat, or But wheat is still his primary tion. a little below,” Squires said. crop. Farmers estimate the cost Cochran said he’s planting “Because that’s what we of production at roughly the same amount of wheat $5.50 to $6 per bushel, said despite lower prices. Glen Squires, CEO of the “I’m trying to raise a LEGAL Washington Grain Commis- wheat crop as cheaply as I CHERRY AVENUE STORAGE sion. can,” he said. “Our input 2680 Cherry Ave. NE The market price hovered costs have come down some. Salem, OR 97301 I just hope I get a good, big (503) 399-7454 crop that makes up for some Sat., April 1st • 10 A.M. LEGAL of the loss of price.” PURSUANT TO ORS CHAPTER 98 • Unit 29 - Luis Aguilar Notice is hereby given that the U.S. winter wheat acre- • Unit 41 - Kimberly Rivas following vehicle will be sold, age has dropped to one of the • Unit 64 - Kristen McDonnell for cash to the highest bidder, lowest levels ever, accord- on 3/27/2017. The sale will be • Unit 142 - held at 10:00 am by ing to USDA. The USDA Angelique Goldschmidt PARKING ENFORCEMENT projects 50.2 million acres • Unit 196 - SERVICES of wheat planted this winter, Debra or Josh Ireland 1768 13TH ST. SE SALEM, OR down 8.7 percent from 55 Cherry Avenue Storage 2006 Mirage Trailer million acres in 2016. reserves the right to refuse VIN = 5M3BE142561018024 any and all bids Spring wheat acres are Amount due on lien $2924.00 legal-11-2-1/#4 still to be determined, but Reputed owner(s) Dan Steiner, grain merchant JOHN C. PINARD legal-11-2-1/#4 LEGAL 11-1/#4x Attorney: DAVID B. BECKHAM 319 Sixth Avenue SW Albany, OR 97321 legal-9-3-1/#4 IN THE CIRCUIT COURT OF THE STATE OF OREGON FOR THE COUNTY OF MARION Probate Department IN THE MATTER OF THE ESTATE OF Daniel R. McGowan, Deceased No. 17PB00512 NOTICE TO INTERESTED PERSONS NOTICE IS HEREBY GIVEN that the undersigned has been appointed Personal Representative of the above estate. All persons having claims against the estate are required to present them to the undersigned Personal Representative in care of the undersigned attorney at: 319 Sixth Street SW, Albany, OR 97321 within four months after the date of the first publication of this notice, as stated below, or such claims may be barred. All persons whose rights may be affected by the proceedings in this estate may obtain additional infor- mation from the records of the Court, the Personal Rep- resentative, or the attorney for the Personal Represen- tative. DATED and first published March 3, 2017. Personal Representative: JOSHUA R. MCGOWAN 62020 Quail Run Place Bend, OR 97701 for Morrow County Grain Growers in Boardman, Ore., expects them to be relatively high. “Wheat acres in the Unit- ed States are defi nitely down, but wheat production across the world is going to be high- er,” Steiner said. Several factors have contributed to the burgeon- ing world supply, including more Russian production and China boosting production through farm subsidies, fur- ther depressing prices. “Supply has been relat- ed to great weather around the world for four years in a row, which is unusual,” said Steve Mercer, vice president of communications for U.S. Wheat Associates. The global stocks-to-use ratio would be signifi cantly lower if China is factored out, and is declining, Mercer said. “If we see a reduction in planting, weather and yields that are more normal or weather problems anywhere, we’re going to start cleaning out that supply pretty quick- ly,” he said. “There should be a correlated increase in de- mand, and therefore prices.” In the meantime, Cochran will continue to spread his risk by diversifi cation. “All it takes is one disas- ter in the world somewhere and the price can change,” Cochran said. Sheffels has a couple thousand acres of winter peas and 1,300 acres of winter wheat this year. He grows a rotation of winter wheat, fal- low, winter peas and fallow under direct-seed production. Sheffels says his fi elds look good, with a good snow cover easing his concerns about any problems caused by the cold winter. He plans to maintain his rotation for the foreseeable future, and doesn’t think he’ll go back to wheat as his primary crop. “It’s unlikely that’s going to happen, honestly,” he said. struggle with huge crop By DAN WHEAT Capital Press WENATCHEE, Wash. — Wholesale prices of Washing- ton’s Gala apples fell dramat- ically in February after prices of Red Delicious did the same in January as companies con- tinued to shrink their second largest crop in history by diverting more apples from fresh to processing markets. The average asking price for extra fancy (standard) grade, medium size (80 to 88 apples per 40-pound box) Gala in Wenatchee and Yaki- ma was $15.90 to $18.90 on March 7, according to USDA tracking. That’s down $3 on the low end and $4 on the high end from Feb. 8. Red Delicious, same grades and sizes, was holding steady at $12.90 to $16.90 af- ter falling $3 on the low end and $2 on the high end in Jan- uary. “I think Reds have lev- eled out and will stay there awhile and I think Gala has also found bottom,” said Tom Riggan, general manager of Chelan Fresh Marketing, one of the state’s larger tree fruit marketers. At the start of the sales season in September, Riggan had predicted Reds and Gala would have a tough ride on price because of the size of the crop in the state and na- tionally. Washington makes up about 65 percent of the na- tional fresh crop. Washington’s total fresh crop was estimated at 134 million, 40-pound boxes on March 1, down 1.7 million from a month earlier. The crop shrank 1.3 million boxes during January. With total U.S. fresh ap- ple holdings of 69.7 million boxes on March 1, up 12 percent from a year ago and 8 percent from a fi ve-year average, Washington’s shrink is a diversion of more fruit to processing for juice, sauce and baking ingredients, Rig- gan said. “I think we will see sim- ilar shrink over the next six months, which normally we don’t. It can be condition is- sues or that certain sizes and grades just aren’t selling,” he said. As of the March 1 season mid-point, Washington had shipped 70.7 million boxes of apples and had 63.2 million left to ship. That compares to 62.8 million shipped and 53.8 million left to go a year ago with a smaller total crop of 116.2 million. Reds and Gala make up 56 percent of what’s left to sell and 51 percent of what’s been sold, Riggan said. There were 23.3 million Reds left on hand March 1 out of 38.6 million for the year, according to industry reports. Gala was 12.7 million left out of 31.1 million. Reds made up the larg- est amount of the 1.7-mil- lion-box crop shrink in the past month at 395,000, followed by Grannies at 362,000, Gala at 295,000, Fuji at 262,000 and Golden Delicious at 200,000. Produce safety water rule reconsidered YAKIMA, Wash. — Any federal water testing requirements imposed on farms need to be risk-based and reasonable to imple- ROP-9-3-1/#4x By MATTHEW WEAVER ment, a Yakima tree fruit grower told a congressio- nal subcommittee. The federal agency that will implement the new rule is reviewing it. Sean Gilbert, general manager of Gilbert Orchards Inc. in Yakima, was among the farmers who testified before the Biotechnology, Horticulture and Research subcommittee of the House Agriculture Committee on March 9. Water testing require- ments of the Produce Safe- ty rule of the Food Safety Modernization Act “are un- necessarily burdensome, cost- ly and not based on risk,” said Gilbert. Gilbert said he’s pleased Stephen Ostroff, acting com- missioner of the Food and Drug Administration, told in- dustry representatives Feb. 16 that the agency is reconsid- ering the entire water quality section of the rule in light of industry opposition. — Dan Wheat
