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January 22, 2016 CapitalPress.com WSU professor to peer into future of markets By MATTHEW WEAVER Capital Press PULLMAN, Wash. — A Washington State University professor will provide his eco- nomic forecast for the coming year during his presentation at the Spokane Ag Expo and Pa- cific Northwest Farm Forum. Randy Fortenbery, WSU small grains endowed chair, plans to provide a general outlook for the grain markets, with specific information tai- lored for the region. “Forecasts are always — you look forward to giving it, then you might regret giving it a month later,” Fortenbery said. “None of us has a crys- tal ball, so things can change in a hurry with unforeseen events.” Fortenbery said he consid- ers national prices and looks for the meaning locally. “I talk a lot about events that would make expectations wrong,” he said. “I’ll say, giv- en what we know today, here’s what I think, but here are the things that could happen that could dramatically change this outlook or this picture.” Grain prices were lower in 2015 than previous years. Fortenbery doesn’t expect sig- nificantly higher prices, but in October said he believed they would slowly drift upward in the new year. “Not by enough to cover Matthew Weaver/Capital Press Washington State University economics professor Randy Forten- ber will deliver his grain market outlook during the Spokane Ag Expo and Pacific Northwest Farm Forum. His main session presentation will begin at 9 a.m. Wednesday, Feb. 3. storage costs unless we have some sort of unexpected event — a weather event or some sort of political upheaval somewhere,” he said. Cash grain prices will im- prove compared to futures prices, he said. Later futures prices were a little higher than nearby prices, indicating cash prices could increase. Much depends on the weather in the spring and how much moisture accumulates during the winter. “Right now, it’s really a demand-driven market,” Fortenbery said. Volatile corn and soybean prices are also impacting the market, and the economic out- look for some international customers remains uncertain, he said. “We seem to have abun- dant stocks to satisfy the de- mand we have now,” Forten- bery said. “Especially in the case of wheat, exports have not performed at the level USDA thought they would earlier in the marketing year.” Corn and wheat exports tend to be connected, and nei- ther were performing particu- larly well in the fall. Fortenbery said the U.S. dollar needs to weaken to improve exports. But when the Federal Reserve raised in- terest rates in December, the dollar further strengthened as more capital entered U.S. fi- nancial markets. “If there’s going to be any significant movement, it’s probably toward a stronger dollar than a weaker dollar in the short-term,” Fortenbery said. 2016 Pacific Northwest Farm Forum Bronze Sponsors AGPRO Marketing & Manufac- turing Inc. Global Harvest Foods LTD The Haskins Company Great Western Malting Company AgVentures NW LLC The McGregor Company Inland Power & Light Bank of America Merrill Lynch Tri-State Seed Company Pomeroy Grain Growers Banner Bank Washington Trust Bank Rain and Hail LLC, Northwest Division Whitgro Inc. Cooperative Agricultural Produc- ers Inc. Columbia Grain Inc. CO–Energy, A Connell Oil Incor- porated Company Erker Trading Company LLC Ritzville Warehouse, Odessa Trading Company & AgTech Services Washington Wheat Foundation State Bank Northwest Wilbur-Ellis Company Syngenta Winston & Cashatt, Lawyers Wheatland Bank 7
