January 22, 2016
CapitalPress.com
WSU professor to peer
into future of markets
By MATTHEW WEAVER
Capital Press
PULLMAN, Wash. — A
Washington State University
professor will provide his eco-
nomic forecast for the coming
year during his presentation at
the Spokane Ag Expo and Pa-
cific Northwest Farm Forum.
Randy Fortenbery, WSU
small grains endowed chair,
plans to provide a general
outlook for the grain markets,
with specific information tai-
lored for the region.
“Forecasts are always —
you look forward to giving it,
then you might regret giving
it a month later,” Fortenbery
said. “None of us has a crys-
tal ball, so things can change
in a hurry with unforeseen
events.”
Fortenbery said he consid-
ers national prices and looks
for the meaning locally.
“I talk a lot about events
that would make expectations
wrong,” he said. “I’ll say, giv-
en what we know today, here’s
what I think, but here are the
things that could happen that
could dramatically change
this outlook or this picture.”
Grain prices were lower
in 2015 than previous years.
Fortenbery doesn’t expect sig-
nificantly higher prices, but in
October said he believed they
would slowly drift upward in
the new year.
“Not by enough to cover
Matthew Weaver/Capital Press
Washington State University economics professor Randy Forten-
ber will deliver his grain market outlook during the Spokane
Ag Expo and Pacific Northwest Farm Forum. His main session
presentation will begin at 9 a.m. Wednesday, Feb. 3.
storage costs unless we have
some sort of unexpected event
— a weather event or some
sort of political upheaval
somewhere,” he said.
Cash grain prices will im-
prove compared to futures
prices, he said. Later futures
prices were a little higher than
nearby prices, indicating cash
prices could increase.
Much depends on the
weather in the spring and how
much moisture accumulates
during the winter.
“Right now, it’s really
a demand-driven market,”
Fortenbery said.
Volatile corn and soybean
prices are also impacting the
market, and the economic out-
look for some international
customers remains uncertain,
he said.
“We seem to have abun-
dant stocks to satisfy the de-
mand we have now,” Forten-
bery said. “Especially in the
case of wheat, exports have
not performed at the level
USDA thought they would
earlier in the marketing year.”
Corn and wheat exports
tend to be connected, and nei-
ther were performing particu-
larly well in the fall.
Fortenbery said the U.S.
dollar needs to weaken to
improve exports. But when
the Federal Reserve raised in-
terest rates in December, the
dollar further strengthened as
more capital entered U.S. fi-
nancial markets.
“If there’s going to be any
significant movement, it’s
probably toward a stronger
dollar than a weaker dollar in
the short-term,” Fortenbery
said.
2016 Pacific Northwest Farm Forum Bronze Sponsors
AGPRO Marketing & Manufac-
turing Inc.
Global Harvest Foods LTD
The Haskins Company
Great Western Malting Company
AgVentures NW LLC
The McGregor Company
Inland Power & Light
Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Tri-State Seed Company
Pomeroy Grain Growers
Banner Bank
Washington Trust Bank
Rain and Hail LLC, Northwest
Division
Whitgro Inc.
Cooperative Agricultural Produc-
ers Inc.
Columbia Grain Inc.
CO–Energy, A Connell Oil Incor-
porated Company
Erker Trading Company LLC
Ritzville Warehouse, Odessa
Trading Company & AgTech
Services
Washington Wheat Foundation
State Bank Northwest
Wilbur-Ellis Company
Syngenta
Winston & Cashatt, Lawyers
Wheatland Bank
7