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About The Observer. (La Grande, Or.) 1968-current | View Entire Issue (Jan. 14, 2021)
THURSDAY, JANUARY 14, 2021 THE OBSERVER — 5A COVID-19 Continued from Page 1A That rate of spread would lead to an average of 1,780 new cases and 85 hospital- izations per day by Jan. 26. Notably, the Oregon Health Authority’s prediction does not account for a possible rise in the infection rate due to spread during the Christmas and New Year’s holidays. “These projections would look even more dire if the actual transmission level increased beyond 1.29 around Christmas and New Year’s Eve,” the OHA stated in its modeling report. The OHA’s modeling also does not account for any potential dampening effects of COVID-19 vaccination in the state. While vaccina- tion efforts have lagged far behind earlier goals, 119,979 people in Oregon’s high-risk populations had received at least one injection of a vac- cine as of Tuesday, Jan. 12. The Health Authori- ty’s modeling also pro- jected a potential scenario in which people became more adherent to COVID-19 pre- vention measures, such as mask wearing and social distancing. In that scenario, transmission rates dropped to 0.9 and new daily cases by Jan. 26 would average out at 1,400. That scenario appears to be unlikely, however. Local daily cases in the new year jumped back into dou- ble-digit fi gures and state- wide daily new cases have at times approached the 2,000 mark once again, indicating a post-holiday spike is likely occurring. Abby Stone-breaker/Grande Ronde Hospital, File Jaymi George, a registered nurse at Grande Ronde Hospital, receives an injection of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine Wednesday, Dec. 23, 2020, from infection preventionist Amy Miles. New modeling of the spread of COVID-19 in Oregon projects a steep rise in infec- tions and deaths over the coming months. While the OHA’s mod- eling does not extend past the end of January, mod- eling from the Institute for Health Metrics and Eval- uation reaches into the coming months, and it pre- dicts an outcome startling and dark. It is important to note the IHME new daily case totals are estimates of all COVID-19 cases in Oregon, including those not tested. The OHA totals include only cases of COVID-19 that have resulted in a pos- itive test or are presump- tive positive cases, meaning there is a signifi cant dis- parity between the numbers each organization produces. The IHME’s modeling of what it calls the “most likely” scenario predicts Oregon’s death toll could more than triple from 1,667 on Jan. 12 to 5,011 by April 1. That scenario also proj- ects the pandemic will hit extremes previously unheard of in Oregon free to also let their worst instincts to take over. Stone also said she thinks the COVID-19 pan- demic, which has forced people to stay home, has sparked violent outbursts such as the events on Jan. 6. “The pandemic put people in a pressure cooker,” Stone said. “It iso- lated people with others who think the same way.” Some have said the riot in the Capitol is representa- tive of American character. President-elect Joe Biden said this is not who we are, and Stone said she hopes he is right. “I would like to believe that people are good,” said Stone, a retired psycho- therapist and rehabilita- tion therapist who moved to La Grande in 2005 after retiring. She said she hopes in the future people will interact more with those who have different viewpoints and become more open-minded in the process. “I have liberal and con- servative friends. It makes me a better person,” Stone said. “We need to talk to people who are not like ourselves. Doing so gives me a view I wouldn’t get if I am with people who think only as I do.” and educators have ready access to a vaccine.” Brown urged those who would become eligible on Jan. 23 to refrain from calling their health care pro- viders with questions about getting vaccinated, as the news came suddenly and details about distribution are forthcoming. “Now, more than ever, I am determined to ensure that communities that have been disproportionately impacted by COVID-19 have access to a vaccine: Oregon’s Black, Indig- enous, tribal, Latino, Latina, and Latinx, Pacifi c Islander, and communi- ties of color,” Brown said. “Reaching educators and individuals aged 65 and older from these commu- nities is absolutely critical, as we strive to achieve equitable vaccine distribu- tion in each phase of this process.” Additional details are expected to be announced on Friday. Look for more details on COVID-19 vacci- nation in the Saturday, Jan. 16, edition of The Observer. it’s also located right on the freeway.” The vandalism of the Black Lives Matter bill- board follows the insur- rection at the United States Capitol building Wednesday, Jan. 6. Five people died as a result of the riot, including one United States Capitol Police offi cer whom the mob dragged and beat. Conspiracy theories cir- culating on social media are that some accused Black Lives Matter and Antifa supporters posed as supporters of Presi- dent Donald Trump during the riot. Myriad outlets, among them the Asso- ciated Press, Politifact, Reuters and USA Today, quickly debunked those claims. Fox News also acknowledged there is no evidence to support those conspiracy theories. Carmichael said the insurrection may have con- tributed to the vandal’s motivation, but the hate for the Black Lives Matter symbol was in place long before the events of Jan. 6. “I would say that (the U.S. Capitol riot) probably emboldened whoever did it, but again, there were hun- dreds of terrible remarks on social media,” Carmichael said. The defaced vinyl on the billboard has been taken down and will be replaced in the coming weeks, Carmichael said, as soon as replacement vinyl can be produced and arrives in La Grande. REACTIONS Continued from Page 1A aid of social media, has not hidden his antago- nistic side throughout his presidency. “Trump has been out front about who he is. He has shown us who he is,” Stone said. She said this makes pol- iticians and others feel VACCINES Continued from Page 1A care partners,” said the gov- ernor. “The Oregon Health Authority and the Oregon National Guard have already begun working with hospitals, pharmacies, and local public health partners to ensure Oregon seniors BLM Continued from Page 1A “If they are OK with me making a report, I would like to do that,” she said. Carmichael is wasting no time, however, in trying to fi nd out who is responsible. “I am actively seeking information from people, if they happened to see anything posted on social media, hear of anything about the vandalism,” she said. “It is a small town, but We Cancel TIMESHARES for You Every year 150,000 people reach out to us for help getting rid of their timeshare. In 2019, we relieved over $50,000,000 in timeshare debt and maintenance fees. We can help. Get your free information kit and see if you qualify: 855-385-4473 NO MORE GUTTER CLEANING, OR YOUR MONEY BACK GUARANTEED! CALL US TODAY FOR Zion Lutheran Church (an ELCA church) 902 Fourth Street, La Grande, OR (541) 963-5998 “OPEN HEARTS, OPEN MINDS, OPEN DOORS” 1612 4th Street – 963-2498 Pastor Taylor Gould For service information go to www.lagrandeumc.org GRACE COMMUNITY LUTHERAN CHURCH The Place 62848 Philynda Loop in Island City “We are called to Serve” Sunday School for all ages - 9:00 am Sunday Worship 10:00 am Phone: 541-568-4230 grace.lutherancove@gmail.com 9:00 am - Worship 10:00 am - Fellowship & Refreshments 10:30 am - Classes Pastor: Roberta Smythe www.zionlagrande.org Imbler Christian Church 440 Ruckman, Imbler 534-2201 www.imblercc@gmail.com Sunday Services 9:00 a.m. 10:00 a.m. Sunday School Worship Service Cove United Methodist Church 1708 Jasper St., Cove, OR North Powder United Methodist Church First Christian Church (Disciples of Christ) 901 Penn Avenue 963-2623 lgdisciples@gmail.com 390 E. St., North Powder, OR JOIN US... Catch the Spirit! 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CSLB# 1035795 DOPL #10783658-5501 License# 7656 License# 50145 License# 41354 License# 99338 License# 128344 License# 218294 License# 603 233 977 License# 2102212986 License# 2106212946 License# 2705132153A License# LEAFFNW822JZ License# WV056912 License# WC-29998-H17 Nassau HIC License# H01067000 Registration# 176447 Registration# HIC.0649905 Registration# C127229 Registration# C127230 Registration# 366920918 Registration# PC6475 Registration# IR731804 Registration# 13VH09953900 Registration# PA069383 Suffolk HIC License# 52229-H FAMILY OWNED 215 Elm Street La Grande (541) 963-5440 northwestfurnitureandmattress.com Northeast Oregon Directory of Churches LA GRANDE UNITED METHODIST CHURCH track closely with statewide vaccination efforts thus far, the model projected Oregon would tally 8,650 average daily COVID-19 infec- tions by Feb. 6 and a total of 4,585 deaths by April 1. “As compared to a no vaccine scenario, rapid rollout (of a COVID-19 vac- cine) targeting high-risk individuals only could save 1,300 lives,” IHME stated in its modeling report. In the IHME’s worst- case scenario, state man- dates were eased, resulting in a projected death toll in Oregon og 6,876 by April 1 and 15,744 average daily new infections reached by Feb. 11. The IHME’s best-case scenario came in the form of an immediate jump to “universal mask use,” in which 95% of Oregonians complied fully with proper mask-wearing procedures. In that scenario, daily infec- tions held steady before beginning to taper off in early February. Current mask use was measured at 76%. While the projec- tions from the Institute of Health Metrics and Eval- uation are dire, it should be noted that the Oregon Health Authority maintains that modeling is extremely challenging. Additionally, changes in each of the fac- tors that drive the spread of the disease — mask wearing, vaccination, social distancing — are all mod- eled separately, meaning that changes in more than one (for example, if vacci- nation were to speed up as people wore masks more diligently) would result in a different outcome. during February, with average daily new infec- tions reaching 8,763 by Feb. 7. The state’s all-time high for daily new infections reported by the OHA stood at 2,176 as of Monday, Jan. 11. The same modeling put the average number of new cases projected for Jan. 9 at 1,814, which is rela- tively close to the number of cases the Oregon Health Authority reported that day at 1,643, though daily cases tapered off to 939 by Jan. 11. The Institute also pro- jected that demand for intensive care unit beds in Oregon due to COVID-19 would exceed the state’s capacity on Jan. 16, with demand rising until late February and continuing to exceed availability until March 17. The IMHE model puts the number of ICU beds available to take COVID-19 patients at 210, which is far below the actual number of total ICU beds in Oregon — 695, according to tracking data from the OHA. How- ever, not all of those beds will be able to accept COVID-19 patients, and as of Tuesday, only 127 of those beds statewide were unoccupied and staffed, according to the OHA. A different scenario that IHME modeled, which accounts for a rapid rollout of a COVID-19 vaccine to those at high risk, pre- dicts fewer deaths from the disease. However, spread in that scenario remains extreme. Under the rapid rollout to high-risk populations scenario, which appears to Services This Week 1531 S. Main St. Union 541-562-5531 www.UnionBaptistOregon.org Sunday Morning Worship Service 11:00 am Sunday School at 9:45 a.m. Birthing, Building and Being Worship: 9:00 a.m. Cove the Body of Christ Worship: 10:00 a.m. N. Powder ~Join us at The Lord’s Table~ La Grande Seventh-day Adventist Church A Place where hope is found in Jesus Join us in Fellowship & Worship Saturday all age classes 9:30 am Saturday Worship 11:00 am 2702 Adams Avenue, La Grande 963-4018 lagrandeor.adventistchurch.org Learning for Today and Eternity Little Friends Christian Preschool/Childcare 963-6390 La Grande Adventist Christian School K-8th Grade 963-6203 FIRST LANDMARK MISSIONARY BAPTIST CHURCH SUMMERVILLE BAPTIST CHURCH Sunday Services: Sunday School & Adult Bible Classes 9:45AM Children’s Church & Worship Service 11:00AM Family Worship Service 6:00PM Wednesday: Prayer Mtg, Children’s Bible Club, Youth Group 7:00PM A church for your whole family Visit us at summervillebaptistchurch.org 1812 1st St. La Grande Pastor Dave Tierce • 541-605-0215 We use the King James Version Bible 109 18th Street • 963-3402 Sunday School 9:15 a.m. Sunday Worship 10:30 a.m. Sunday School - 10:00 am Worship 11:00 am Sunday Evening Bible Study - 3:00 pm (Effective June 10) Wednesday Evening - 6:30 pm “Where you can find TRUTH according to the scriptures” www.flmbclagrande.com
