THURSDAY, JANUARY 14, 2021
THE OBSERVER — 5A
COVID-19
Continued from Page 1A
That rate of spread would
lead to an average of 1,780
new cases and 85 hospital-
izations per day by Jan. 26.
Notably, the Oregon Health
Authority’s prediction does
not account for a possible
rise in the infection rate
due to spread during the
Christmas and New Year’s
holidays.
“These projections
would look even more dire
if the actual transmission
level increased beyond 1.29
around Christmas and New
Year’s Eve,” the OHA stated
in its modeling report.
The OHA’s modeling also
does not account for any
potential dampening effects
of COVID-19 vaccination
in the state. While vaccina-
tion efforts have lagged far
behind earlier goals, 119,979
people in Oregon’s high-risk
populations had received at
least one injection of a vac-
cine as of Tuesday, Jan. 12.
The Health Authori-
ty’s modeling also pro-
jected a potential scenario in
which people became more
adherent to COVID-19 pre-
vention measures, such as
mask wearing and social
distancing. In that scenario,
transmission rates dropped
to 0.9 and new daily cases
by Jan. 26 would average
out at 1,400.
That scenario appears
to be unlikely, however.
Local daily cases in the new
year jumped back into dou-
ble-digit fi gures and state-
wide daily new cases have
at times approached the
2,000 mark once again,
indicating a post-holiday
spike is likely occurring.
Abby Stone-breaker/Grande Ronde Hospital, File
Jaymi George, a registered nurse at Grande Ronde Hospital, receives an injection of the
Moderna COVID-19 vaccine Wednesday, Dec. 23, 2020, from infection preventionist Amy
Miles. New modeling of the spread of COVID-19 in Oregon projects a steep rise in infec-
tions and deaths over the coming months.
While the OHA’s mod-
eling does not extend past
the end of January, mod-
eling from the Institute for
Health Metrics and Eval-
uation reaches into the
coming months, and it pre-
dicts an outcome startling
and dark.
It is important to note
the IHME new daily case
totals are estimates of all
COVID-19 cases in Oregon,
including those not tested.
The OHA totals include
only cases of COVID-19
that have resulted in a pos-
itive test or are presump-
tive positive cases, meaning
there is a signifi cant dis-
parity between the numbers
each organization produces.
The IHME’s modeling
of what it calls the “most
likely” scenario predicts
Oregon’s death toll could
more than triple from 1,667
on Jan. 12 to 5,011 by April
1.
That scenario also proj-
ects the pandemic will
hit extremes previously
unheard of in Oregon
free to also let their worst
instincts to take over.
Stone also said she
thinks the COVID-19 pan-
demic, which has forced
people to stay home, has
sparked violent outbursts
such as the events on Jan. 6.
“The pandemic put
people in a pressure
cooker,” Stone said. “It iso-
lated people with others
who think the same way.”
Some have said the riot
in the Capitol is representa-
tive of American character.
President-elect Joe Biden
said this is not who we are,
and Stone said she hopes he
is right.
“I would like to believe
that people are good,” said
Stone, a retired psycho-
therapist and rehabilita-
tion therapist who moved
to La Grande in 2005 after
retiring.
She said she hopes in the
future people will interact
more with those who have
different viewpoints and
become more open-minded
in the process.
“I have liberal and con-
servative friends. It makes
me a better person,” Stone
said. “We need to talk to
people who are not like
ourselves. Doing so gives
me a view I wouldn’t get if
I am with people who think
only as I do.”
and educators have ready
access to a vaccine.”
Brown urged those who
would become eligible
on Jan. 23 to refrain from
calling their health care pro-
viders with questions about
getting vaccinated, as the
news came suddenly and
details about distribution
are forthcoming.
“Now, more than ever,
I am determined to ensure
that communities that have
been disproportionately
impacted by COVID-19
have access to a vaccine:
Oregon’s Black, Indig-
enous, tribal, Latino,
Latina, and Latinx, Pacifi c
Islander, and communi-
ties of color,” Brown said.
“Reaching educators and
individuals aged 65 and
older from these commu-
nities is absolutely critical,
as we strive to achieve
equitable vaccine distribu-
tion in each phase of this
process.”
Additional details are
expected to be announced
on Friday. Look for more
details on COVID-19 vacci-
nation in the Saturday, Jan.
16, edition of The Observer.
it’s also located right on the
freeway.”
The vandalism of the
Black Lives Matter bill-
board follows the insur-
rection at the United
States Capitol building
Wednesday, Jan. 6. Five
people died as a result
of the riot, including one
United States Capitol Police
offi cer whom the mob
dragged and beat.
Conspiracy theories cir-
culating on social media
are that some accused
Black Lives Matter and
Antifa supporters posed
as supporters of Presi-
dent Donald Trump during
the riot. Myriad outlets,
among them the Asso-
ciated Press, Politifact,
Reuters and USA Today,
quickly debunked those
claims. Fox News also
acknowledged there is no
evidence to support those
conspiracy theories.
Carmichael said the
insurrection may have con-
tributed to the vandal’s
motivation, but the hate
for the Black Lives Matter
symbol was in place long
before the events of Jan. 6.
“I would say that (the
U.S. Capitol riot) probably
emboldened whoever did it,
but again, there were hun-
dreds of terrible remarks on
social media,” Carmichael
said.
The defaced vinyl on
the billboard has been
taken down and will be
replaced in the coming
weeks, Carmichael said,
as soon as replacement
vinyl can be produced and
arrives in La Grande.
REACTIONS
Continued from Page 1A
aid of social media, has
not hidden his antago-
nistic side throughout his
presidency.
“Trump has been out
front about who he is. He
has shown us who he is,”
Stone said.
She said this makes pol-
iticians and others feel
VACCINES
Continued from Page 1A
care partners,” said the gov-
ernor. “The Oregon Health
Authority and the Oregon
National Guard have
already begun working with
hospitals, pharmacies, and
local public health partners
to ensure Oregon seniors
BLM
Continued from Page 1A
“If they are OK with me
making a report, I would
like to do that,” she said.
Carmichael is wasting no
time, however, in trying to
fi nd out who is responsible.
“I am actively seeking
information from people,
if they happened to see
anything posted on social
media, hear of anything
about the vandalism,” she
said. “It is a small town, but
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(541) 963-5998
“OPEN HEARTS, OPEN MINDS, OPEN DOORS”
1612 4th Street – 963-2498
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GRACE COMMUNITY
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The Place
62848 Philynda Loop in Island City
“We are called to Serve”
Sunday School for all ages - 9:00 am
Sunday Worship 10:00 am
Phone: 541-568-4230
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1708 Jasper St., Cove, OR
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901 Penn Avenue 963-2623
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LA GRANDE UNITED
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track closely with statewide
vaccination efforts thus far,
the model projected Oregon
would tally 8,650 average
daily COVID-19 infec-
tions by Feb. 6 and a total of
4,585 deaths by April 1.
“As compared to a no
vaccine scenario, rapid
rollout (of a COVID-19 vac-
cine) targeting high-risk
individuals only could save
1,300 lives,” IHME stated
in its modeling report.
In the IHME’s worst-
case scenario, state man-
dates were eased, resulting
in a projected death toll in
Oregon og 6,876 by April
1 and 15,744 average daily
new infections reached by
Feb. 11.
The IHME’s best-case
scenario came in the form
of an immediate jump to
“universal mask use,” in
which 95% of Oregonians
complied fully with proper
mask-wearing procedures.
In that scenario, daily infec-
tions held steady before
beginning to taper off in
early February. Current
mask use was measured at
76%.
While the projec-
tions from the Institute of
Health Metrics and Eval-
uation are dire, it should
be noted that the Oregon
Health Authority maintains
that modeling is extremely
challenging. Additionally,
changes in each of the fac-
tors that drive the spread
of the disease — mask
wearing, vaccination, social
distancing — are all mod-
eled separately, meaning
that changes in more than
one (for example, if vacci-
nation were to speed up as
people wore masks more
diligently) would result in a
different outcome.
during February, with
average daily new infec-
tions reaching 8,763 by Feb.
7. The state’s all-time high
for daily new infections
reported by the OHA stood
at 2,176 as of Monday, Jan.
11.
The same modeling put
the average number of new
cases projected for Jan.
9 at 1,814, which is rela-
tively close to the number
of cases the Oregon Health
Authority reported that day
at 1,643, though daily cases
tapered off to 939 by Jan.
11.
The Institute also pro-
jected that demand for
intensive care unit beds in
Oregon due to COVID-19
would exceed the state’s
capacity on Jan. 16, with
demand rising until late
February and continuing
to exceed availability until
March 17.
The IMHE model puts
the number of ICU beds
available to take COVID-19
patients at 210, which is far
below the actual number of
total ICU beds in Oregon —
695, according to tracking
data from the OHA. How-
ever, not all of those beds
will be able to accept
COVID-19 patients, and
as of Tuesday, only 127 of
those beds statewide were
unoccupied and staffed,
according to the OHA.
A different scenario
that IHME modeled, which
accounts for a rapid rollout
of a COVID-19 vaccine
to those at high risk, pre-
dicts fewer deaths from the
disease. However, spread
in that scenario remains
extreme.
Under the rapid rollout
to high-risk populations
scenario, which appears to
Services This
Week
1531 S. Main St.
Union
541-562-5531
www.UnionBaptistOregon.org
Sunday Morning Worship
Service 11:00 am
Sunday School at 9:45 a.m.
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Worship: 9:00 a.m. Cove
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La Grande Seventh-day
Adventist Church
A Place where hope is found in Jesus
Join us in Fellowship & Worship
Saturday all age classes 9:30 am
Saturday Worship 11:00 am
2702 Adams Avenue, La Grande
963-4018
lagrandeor.adventistchurch.org
Learning for Today and Eternity
Little Friends
Christian Preschool/Childcare 963-6390
La Grande Adventist Christian School
K-8th Grade 963-6203
FIRST LANDMARK
MISSIONARY BAPTIST
CHURCH
SUMMERVILLE
BAPTIST CHURCH
Sunday Services:
Sunday School & Adult Bible Classes
9:45AM
Children’s Church & Worship Service
11:00AM
Family Worship Service
6:00PM
Wednesday:
Prayer Mtg, Children’s Bible Club, Youth
Group 7:00PM
A church for your whole family
Visit us at summervillebaptistchurch.org
1812 1st St. La Grande
Pastor Dave Tierce • 541-605-0215
We use the King James Version Bible
109 18th Street • 963-3402
Sunday School 9:15 a.m.
Sunday Worship 10:30 a.m.
Sunday School - 10:00 am
Worship 11:00 am
Sunday Evening Bible Study - 3:00 pm (Effective June 10)
Wednesday Evening - 6:30 pm
“Where you can find TRUTH according to the scriptures”
www.flmbclagrande.com